MULTINOMIAL LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL USING MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD APPROACH AND BAYES METHOD ON INDONESIA'S ECONOMIC GROWTH PRE TO POST COVID-19 PANDEMIC

Economic growth in Indonesia has become a major concern in the global context, especially before and after the Covid-19 pandemic. Key sectors such as tourism, manufacturing, trade and transportation have been seriously affected by restrictions on travel and economic activity imposed to control the s...

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Main Authors: Arie Purwanto, Muhammad Aziz Suprayogi, Erwan Setiawan, Joao Ferreira Rendes Bean Loly, Gusti Arviana Rahman, Anang Kurnia
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Universitas Pattimura 2025-01-01
Series:Barekeng
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Online Access:https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/12144
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author Arie Purwanto
Muhammad Aziz Suprayogi
Erwan Setiawan
Joao Ferreira Rendes Bean Loly
Gusti Arviana Rahman
Anang Kurnia
author_facet Arie Purwanto
Muhammad Aziz Suprayogi
Erwan Setiawan
Joao Ferreira Rendes Bean Loly
Gusti Arviana Rahman
Anang Kurnia
author_sort Arie Purwanto
collection DOAJ
description Economic growth in Indonesia has become a major concern in the global context, especially before and after the Covid-19 pandemic. Key sectors such as tourism, manufacturing, trade and transportation have been seriously affected by restrictions on travel and economic activity imposed to control the spread of the virus. Therefore, it is considered necessary to carry out modeling to describe existing conditions. In this research, two approaches were used, namely the Maximum Likelihood approach and the Bayes approach. The use of methods in general as research material for researchers to study these two methods further. So far the algorithm used for the Bayes concept method is Markov Chain Monte Carlo with Hasting's Metropolis method. The parameter estimation results obtained from both methods are considered quite identical. However, it is necessary to pay attention to the iteration procedure that will be carried out. The selection of factors used in the iteration process is very determining in obtaining estimated parameter values. Furthermore, the results obtained so far do not contain any fundamental differences regarding economic growth in Indonesia. In general, Indonesia can be said to be stable in terms of economic growth.
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institution Kabale University
issn 1978-7227
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language English
publishDate 2025-01-01
publisher Universitas Pattimura
record_format Article
series Barekeng
spelling doaj-art-6fc59fa2c99a4a02b2ac6dba76eceb6b2025-08-20T04:01:47ZengUniversitas PattimuraBarekeng1978-72272615-30172025-01-01191516210.30598/barekengvol19iss1pp51-6212144MULTINOMIAL LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL USING MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD APPROACH AND BAYES METHOD ON INDONESIA'S ECONOMIC GROWTH PRE TO POST COVID-19 PANDEMICArie Purwanto0Muhammad Aziz Suprayogi1Erwan Setiawan2Joao Ferreira Rendes Bean Loly3Gusti Arviana Rahman4Anang Kurnia5Study Program of Mathematics Education, Faculty of Teacher Training and Education, Universitas Mercu Buana Yogyakarta, IndonesiaSchool of Data Science, Mathematics and Informatics, IPB University, IndonesiaStudy Program of Mathematics Education, Faculty of Teacher Training and Education, Universitas Suryakancana, IndonesiaUniversidade Nacional Timor Lorosa’e, Timor LesteDepartment of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Universitas Halu Oleo, IndonesiaSchool of Data Science, Mathematics and Informatics, IPB University, IndonesiaEconomic growth in Indonesia has become a major concern in the global context, especially before and after the Covid-19 pandemic. Key sectors such as tourism, manufacturing, trade and transportation have been seriously affected by restrictions on travel and economic activity imposed to control the spread of the virus. Therefore, it is considered necessary to carry out modeling to describe existing conditions. In this research, two approaches were used, namely the Maximum Likelihood approach and the Bayes approach. The use of methods in general as research material for researchers to study these two methods further. So far the algorithm used for the Bayes concept method is Markov Chain Monte Carlo with Hasting's Metropolis method. The parameter estimation results obtained from both methods are considered quite identical. However, it is necessary to pay attention to the iteration procedure that will be carried out. The selection of factors used in the iteration process is very determining in obtaining estimated parameter values. Furthermore, the results obtained so far do not contain any fundamental differences regarding economic growth in Indonesia. In general, Indonesia can be said to be stable in terms of economic growth.https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/12144bayeseconomic growthmaximum likelihood
spellingShingle Arie Purwanto
Muhammad Aziz Suprayogi
Erwan Setiawan
Joao Ferreira Rendes Bean Loly
Gusti Arviana Rahman
Anang Kurnia
MULTINOMIAL LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL USING MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD APPROACH AND BAYES METHOD ON INDONESIA'S ECONOMIC GROWTH PRE TO POST COVID-19 PANDEMIC
Barekeng
bayes
economic growth
maximum likelihood
title MULTINOMIAL LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL USING MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD APPROACH AND BAYES METHOD ON INDONESIA'S ECONOMIC GROWTH PRE TO POST COVID-19 PANDEMIC
title_full MULTINOMIAL LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL USING MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD APPROACH AND BAYES METHOD ON INDONESIA'S ECONOMIC GROWTH PRE TO POST COVID-19 PANDEMIC
title_fullStr MULTINOMIAL LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL USING MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD APPROACH AND BAYES METHOD ON INDONESIA'S ECONOMIC GROWTH PRE TO POST COVID-19 PANDEMIC
title_full_unstemmed MULTINOMIAL LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL USING MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD APPROACH AND BAYES METHOD ON INDONESIA'S ECONOMIC GROWTH PRE TO POST COVID-19 PANDEMIC
title_short MULTINOMIAL LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL USING MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD APPROACH AND BAYES METHOD ON INDONESIA'S ECONOMIC GROWTH PRE TO POST COVID-19 PANDEMIC
title_sort multinomial logistic regression model using maximum likelihood approach and bayes method on indonesia s economic growth pre to post covid 19 pandemic
topic bayes
economic growth
maximum likelihood
url https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/12144
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