MULTINOMIAL LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL USING MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD APPROACH AND BAYES METHOD ON INDONESIA'S ECONOMIC GROWTH PRE TO POST COVID-19 PANDEMIC

Economic growth in Indonesia has become a major concern in the global context, especially before and after the Covid-19 pandemic. Key sectors such as tourism, manufacturing, trade and transportation have been seriously affected by restrictions on travel and economic activity imposed to control the s...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Arie Purwanto, Muhammad Aziz Suprayogi, Erwan Setiawan, Joao Ferreira Rendes Bean Loly, Gusti Arviana Rahman, Anang Kurnia
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Universitas Pattimura 2025-01-01
Series:Barekeng
Subjects:
Online Access:https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/12144
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:Economic growth in Indonesia has become a major concern in the global context, especially before and after the Covid-19 pandemic. Key sectors such as tourism, manufacturing, trade and transportation have been seriously affected by restrictions on travel and economic activity imposed to control the spread of the virus. Therefore, it is considered necessary to carry out modeling to describe existing conditions. In this research, two approaches were used, namely the Maximum Likelihood approach and the Bayes approach. The use of methods in general as research material for researchers to study these two methods further. So far the algorithm used for the Bayes concept method is Markov Chain Monte Carlo with Hasting's Metropolis method. The parameter estimation results obtained from both methods are considered quite identical. However, it is necessary to pay attention to the iteration procedure that will be carried out. The selection of factors used in the iteration process is very determining in obtaining estimated parameter values. Furthermore, the results obtained so far do not contain any fundamental differences regarding economic growth in Indonesia. In general, Indonesia can be said to be stable in terms of economic growth.
ISSN:1978-7227
2615-3017