Urbanization and forecast possibilities of land use changes by 2050: New evidence in Ho Chi Minh city, Vietnam
Research on land use change (LUC) is considered as one of the important studies contributing to the assessment of land use efficiency and the development of appropriate policies for sustainable land use in the current urbanization period. Modeling is a method of simulating changes based on the under...
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De Gruyter
2025-03-01
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| Series: | Open Agriculture |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1515/opag-2025-0421 |
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| author | Tuan Nguyen Tran Hegedűs Gábor Phuong Nguyen Thi Tung |
| author_facet | Tuan Nguyen Tran Hegedűs Gábor Phuong Nguyen Thi Tung |
| author_sort | Tuan Nguyen Tran |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Research on land use change (LUC) is considered as one of the important studies contributing to the assessment of land use efficiency and the development of appropriate policies for sustainable land use in the current urbanization period. Modeling is a method of simulating changes based on the understanding of LUC laws and forecasting future LUC. This study uses Markov chains to simulate the probability of the transition matrix to forecast LUC in Ho Chi Minh (HCM) city by 2050. The research results show that the three main land groups in HCM city were agricultural land, residential land, and water. The agricultural land group occupied the largest area, but it has decreased by nearly 10% from 2000 to 2020. In contrast, the urban land group had a strong increasing trend, with an increase of nearly 25% after 20 years. In terms of spatial distribution, HCM city tended to develop in three main directions: east, southwest, and northwest. With an accuracy of 91%, the study predicts that by 2030, agricultural land will still account for more than half of HCM city’s area, but by 2050, this land group will only account for less than 40%. In contrast, by 2050, residential land is projected to become the largest land group in the city with more than 50%. As a result, this forecast shows a difference from HCM city’s land use target by 2030. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-6f93d3ae63c94abf8bca7f8eaa59fece |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2391-9531 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | De Gruyter |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Open Agriculture |
| spelling | doaj-art-6f93d3ae63c94abf8bca7f8eaa59fece2025-08-20T02:55:56ZengDe GruyterOpen Agriculture2391-95312025-03-011014568210.1515/opag-2025-0421Urbanization and forecast possibilities of land use changes by 2050: New evidence in Ho Chi Minh city, VietnamTuan Nguyen Tran0Hegedűs Gábor1Phuong Nguyen Thi Tung2Faculty of Real Estate and Resources Economics, College of Business, National Economics University, 207 Giai Phong, Hanoi, 113068, VietnamDepartment of Human Geography, University of Szeged, Egyetem u. 2. H-6722, Szeged, HungaryFaculty of Real Estate and Resources Economics, College of Business, National Economics University, 207 Giai Phong, Hanoi, 113068, VietnamResearch on land use change (LUC) is considered as one of the important studies contributing to the assessment of land use efficiency and the development of appropriate policies for sustainable land use in the current urbanization period. Modeling is a method of simulating changes based on the understanding of LUC laws and forecasting future LUC. This study uses Markov chains to simulate the probability of the transition matrix to forecast LUC in Ho Chi Minh (HCM) city by 2050. The research results show that the three main land groups in HCM city were agricultural land, residential land, and water. The agricultural land group occupied the largest area, but it has decreased by nearly 10% from 2000 to 2020. In contrast, the urban land group had a strong increasing trend, with an increase of nearly 25% after 20 years. In terms of spatial distribution, HCM city tended to develop in three main directions: east, southwest, and northwest. With an accuracy of 91%, the study predicts that by 2030, agricultural land will still account for more than half of HCM city’s area, but by 2050, this land group will only account for less than 40%. In contrast, by 2050, residential land is projected to become the largest land group in the city with more than 50%. As a result, this forecast shows a difference from HCM city’s land use target by 2030.https://doi.org/10.1515/opag-2025-0421markov chainsustainable developmentgisland use planningvietnam |
| spellingShingle | Tuan Nguyen Tran Hegedűs Gábor Phuong Nguyen Thi Tung Urbanization and forecast possibilities of land use changes by 2050: New evidence in Ho Chi Minh city, Vietnam Open Agriculture markov chain sustainable development gis land use planning vietnam |
| title | Urbanization and forecast possibilities of land use changes by 2050: New evidence in Ho Chi Minh city, Vietnam |
| title_full | Urbanization and forecast possibilities of land use changes by 2050: New evidence in Ho Chi Minh city, Vietnam |
| title_fullStr | Urbanization and forecast possibilities of land use changes by 2050: New evidence in Ho Chi Minh city, Vietnam |
| title_full_unstemmed | Urbanization and forecast possibilities of land use changes by 2050: New evidence in Ho Chi Minh city, Vietnam |
| title_short | Urbanization and forecast possibilities of land use changes by 2050: New evidence in Ho Chi Minh city, Vietnam |
| title_sort | urbanization and forecast possibilities of land use changes by 2050 new evidence in ho chi minh city vietnam |
| topic | markov chain sustainable development gis land use planning vietnam |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1515/opag-2025-0421 |
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