Shifts in Precipitation Accumulation Extremes During the Warm Season Over the United States
Abstract Precipitation accumulations, integrated over precipitation events in hourly data, are examined from 1979 to 2013 over the contiguous United States during the warm season (May–October). As expected from theory, accumulation distributions have a characteristic shape, with an approximate power...
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| Format: | Article |
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Wiley
2018-08-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078465 |
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| author | Cristian Martinez‐Villalobos J. David Neelin |
| author_facet | Cristian Martinez‐Villalobos J. David Neelin |
| author_sort | Cristian Martinez‐Villalobos |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Precipitation accumulations, integrated over precipitation events in hourly data, are examined from 1979 to 2013 over the contiguous United States during the warm season (May–October). As expected from theory, accumulation distributions have a characteristic shape, with an approximate power law decrease with event size followed by an exponential drop at a characteristic cutoff scale sL for each location. This cutoff is a predictor of the highest accumulation percentiles and of a similarly defined daily precipitation cutoff PL. Comparing 1997–2013 and 1979–1995 periods, there are significant regional increases in sL in several regions. This yields distribution changes that are weighted disproportionately toward extreme accumulations. In the Northeast, for example, risk ratio (conditioned on occurrence) for accumulations larger than 109 mm increases by a factor of 2–4 (5th–95th). These changes in risk ratio as a function of size, and connection to underlying theory, have counterparts in the observed daily precipitation trends. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-6e9ad56d6afc4d04aaa0fd9dbf1cbe6a |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2018-08-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-6e9ad56d6afc4d04aaa0fd9dbf1cbe6a2025-08-20T01:58:00ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072018-08-0145168586859510.1029/2018GL078465Shifts in Precipitation Accumulation Extremes During the Warm Season Over the United StatesCristian Martinez‐Villalobos0J. David Neelin1Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences University of California, Los Angeles Los Angeles CA U.S.ADepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences University of California, Los Angeles Los Angeles CA U.S.AAbstract Precipitation accumulations, integrated over precipitation events in hourly data, are examined from 1979 to 2013 over the contiguous United States during the warm season (May–October). As expected from theory, accumulation distributions have a characteristic shape, with an approximate power law decrease with event size followed by an exponential drop at a characteristic cutoff scale sL for each location. This cutoff is a predictor of the highest accumulation percentiles and of a similarly defined daily precipitation cutoff PL. Comparing 1997–2013 and 1979–1995 periods, there are significant regional increases in sL in several regions. This yields distribution changes that are weighted disproportionately toward extreme accumulations. In the Northeast, for example, risk ratio (conditioned on occurrence) for accumulations larger than 109 mm increases by a factor of 2–4 (5th–95th). These changes in risk ratio as a function of size, and connection to underlying theory, have counterparts in the observed daily precipitation trends.https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078465precipitation accumulationsextreme eventsglobal warmingriskdaily precipitationUnited States |
| spellingShingle | Cristian Martinez‐Villalobos J. David Neelin Shifts in Precipitation Accumulation Extremes During the Warm Season Over the United States Geophysical Research Letters precipitation accumulations extreme events global warming risk daily precipitation United States |
| title | Shifts in Precipitation Accumulation Extremes During the Warm Season Over the United States |
| title_full | Shifts in Precipitation Accumulation Extremes During the Warm Season Over the United States |
| title_fullStr | Shifts in Precipitation Accumulation Extremes During the Warm Season Over the United States |
| title_full_unstemmed | Shifts in Precipitation Accumulation Extremes During the Warm Season Over the United States |
| title_short | Shifts in Precipitation Accumulation Extremes During the Warm Season Over the United States |
| title_sort | shifts in precipitation accumulation extremes during the warm season over the united states |
| topic | precipitation accumulations extreme events global warming risk daily precipitation United States |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078465 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT cristianmartinezvillalobos shiftsinprecipitationaccumulationextremesduringthewarmseasonovertheunitedstates AT jdavidneelin shiftsinprecipitationaccumulationextremesduringthewarmseasonovertheunitedstates |