The effect of the Covid pandemic on stock market volatility: Separating initial impact from time-to-recovery
We develop an extension to the GARCHX model - named GARCHX-NL - that captures a key stylized fact for stock market return data seen during the COVID-19 pandemic: an abrupt jump in volatility at the onset of the crisis, followed by a gradual return to its precrisis level. We apply the GARCHX-NL proce...
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| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
AIMS Press
2024-11-01
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| Series: | Data Science in Finance and Economics |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/DSFE.2024022 |
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| Summary: | We develop an extension to the GARCHX model - named GARCHX-NL - that captures a key stylized fact for stock market return data seen during the COVID-19 pandemic: an abrupt jump in volatility at the onset of the crisis, followed by a gradual return to its precrisis level. We apply the GARCHX-NL procedure to daily data on various major stock market indexes. The profile likelihood method is used for estimation. The model decomposes the overall impact of the crisis into two measures: the initial impact, and the 'half-life' of the shock. We find a strong negative association between these two measures. Moreover, countries with low initial impact but a long half-life tend to be emerging markets, while those with high initial impact and short half-life tend to be developed economies with well-established stock-markets. We attribute these differences to differences in investors' sensitivity to adverse news, and to differences in the preparedness of stock markets to absorb the effects of crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic. |
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| ISSN: | 2769-2140 |