Potential geographical distribution of Carob tree (Ceratonia siliqua L., Leguminosae) in Morocco under climate change
Climate change is expected to have a profound impact on the growth and distribution of plant species, particularly in Mediterranean regions. In this study, we investigate the suitable habitat and geographical distribution of Ceratonia siliqua L. (Leguminosae), an exceptional Mediterranean tree, in M...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
National Institute of Agronomic Research "INRA" Morocco
2024-12-01
|
| Series: | African and Mediterranean Agricultural Journal - Al Awamia |
| Online Access: | https://revues.imist.ma/index.php/Afrimed/article/view/48246 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1841556038947438592 |
|---|---|
| author | Jalal Kassout Soufian Chakkour Abdeltif El Ouahrani Younes Hmimsa Salama El Fatehi Yanzheng Yan Rachid Hadria Mohammed Ater |
| author_facet | Jalal Kassout Soufian Chakkour Abdeltif El Ouahrani Younes Hmimsa Salama El Fatehi Yanzheng Yan Rachid Hadria Mohammed Ater |
| author_sort | Jalal Kassout |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change is expected to have a profound impact on the growth and distribution of plant species, particularly in Mediterranean regions. In this study, we investigate the suitable habitat and geographical distribution of Ceratonia siliqua L. (Leguminosae), an exceptional Mediterranean tree, in Morocco. Our hypothesis suggests a reduction in suitable habitats for the carob tree under climate change scenarios. To test this, we used the maximum entropy algorithm (Maxent), 303 occurrence points and 19 bioclimatic variables to generate current and future models. We considered two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) as future input scenarios for the years 2050 and 2070. The maximum entropy model yielded satisfactory results, with a high Area Under Curve value of 0.987 (±0.001). Jackknife tests revealed that precipitation, followed by temperature, significantly influence the biogeographical dynamics of the carob tree in Morocco. Thus, our findings confirm the projected reduction in suitable habitat area by 2050 and 2070 under climate change scenarios. The approaches developed in this study are promising for predicting the potential distribution of native Mediterranean species and can serve as an effective tool to support conservation and restoration programs. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-6e1412e55db34c8b98319a2868ee5cb5 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0572-2721 2658-9184 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | National Institute of Agronomic Research "INRA" Morocco |
| record_format | Article |
| series | African and Mediterranean Agricultural Journal - Al Awamia |
| spelling | doaj-art-6e1412e55db34c8b98319a2868ee5cb52025-01-07T14:58:12ZengNational Institute of Agronomic Research "INRA" MoroccoAfrican and Mediterranean Agricultural Journal - Al Awamia0572-27212658-91842024-12-01145738610.34874/IMIST.PRSM/afrimed-i145.4824667967Potential geographical distribution of Carob tree (Ceratonia siliqua L., Leguminosae) in Morocco under climate changeJalal Kassout0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3702-2751Soufian Chakkour1Abdeltif El Ouahrani2Younes Hmimsa3Salama El Fatehi4Yanzheng Yan5Rachid Hadria6Mohammed Ater7INRA, Regional Center of Agricultural Research of MarrakechAbdelmalek Essaadi University, Faculty of Sciences of TétouanAbdelmalek Essaadi University, Faculty of Sciences of Tétouan Abdelmalek Essaâdi University, Polydisciplinary Faculty of LaracheAbdelmalek Essaâdi University,Polydisciplinary Faculty of LaracheChinese Academy of Sciences of Beijing, Research Center for Eco-environmental SciencesINRA, Regional Center of Agricultural Research of Marrakech Abdelmalek Essaadi University, Faculty of Sciences of TétouanClimate change is expected to have a profound impact on the growth and distribution of plant species, particularly in Mediterranean regions. In this study, we investigate the suitable habitat and geographical distribution of Ceratonia siliqua L. (Leguminosae), an exceptional Mediterranean tree, in Morocco. Our hypothesis suggests a reduction in suitable habitats for the carob tree under climate change scenarios. To test this, we used the maximum entropy algorithm (Maxent), 303 occurrence points and 19 bioclimatic variables to generate current and future models. We considered two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) as future input scenarios for the years 2050 and 2070. The maximum entropy model yielded satisfactory results, with a high Area Under Curve value of 0.987 (±0.001). Jackknife tests revealed that precipitation, followed by temperature, significantly influence the biogeographical dynamics of the carob tree in Morocco. Thus, our findings confirm the projected reduction in suitable habitat area by 2050 and 2070 under climate change scenarios. The approaches developed in this study are promising for predicting the potential distribution of native Mediterranean species and can serve as an effective tool to support conservation and restoration programs.https://revues.imist.ma/index.php/Afrimed/article/view/48246 |
| spellingShingle | Jalal Kassout Soufian Chakkour Abdeltif El Ouahrani Younes Hmimsa Salama El Fatehi Yanzheng Yan Rachid Hadria Mohammed Ater Potential geographical distribution of Carob tree (Ceratonia siliqua L., Leguminosae) in Morocco under climate change African and Mediterranean Agricultural Journal - Al Awamia |
| title | Potential geographical distribution of Carob tree (Ceratonia siliqua L., Leguminosae) in Morocco under climate change |
| title_full | Potential geographical distribution of Carob tree (Ceratonia siliqua L., Leguminosae) in Morocco under climate change |
| title_fullStr | Potential geographical distribution of Carob tree (Ceratonia siliqua L., Leguminosae) in Morocco under climate change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Potential geographical distribution of Carob tree (Ceratonia siliqua L., Leguminosae) in Morocco under climate change |
| title_short | Potential geographical distribution of Carob tree (Ceratonia siliqua L., Leguminosae) in Morocco under climate change |
| title_sort | potential geographical distribution of carob tree ceratonia siliqua l leguminosae in morocco under climate change |
| url | https://revues.imist.ma/index.php/Afrimed/article/view/48246 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jalalkassout potentialgeographicaldistributionofcarobtreeceratoniasiliqualleguminosaeinmoroccounderclimatechange AT soufianchakkour potentialgeographicaldistributionofcarobtreeceratoniasiliqualleguminosaeinmoroccounderclimatechange AT abdeltifelouahrani potentialgeographicaldistributionofcarobtreeceratoniasiliqualleguminosaeinmoroccounderclimatechange AT youneshmimsa potentialgeographicaldistributionofcarobtreeceratoniasiliqualleguminosaeinmoroccounderclimatechange AT salamaelfatehi potentialgeographicaldistributionofcarobtreeceratoniasiliqualleguminosaeinmoroccounderclimatechange AT yanzhengyan potentialgeographicaldistributionofcarobtreeceratoniasiliqualleguminosaeinmoroccounderclimatechange AT rachidhadria potentialgeographicaldistributionofcarobtreeceratoniasiliqualleguminosaeinmoroccounderclimatechange AT mohammedater potentialgeographicaldistributionofcarobtreeceratoniasiliqualleguminosaeinmoroccounderclimatechange |