Forest demographic changes across Texas associated with hot drought
Recent changes of tree species demography in Texas likely can be attributed to climatic disturbances, particularly hot drought (i.e., drought exacerbated by extreme heat). In this study, we examined demographic change over East, Central and West Texas over a 16-year period (2004–2019), including a w...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2025-02-01
|
| Series: | Ecological Indicators |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25000469 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1832542448519217152 |
|---|---|
| author | Shakirudeen Lawal Frank H. Koch Robert M. Scheller Jennifer Costanza |
| author_facet | Shakirudeen Lawal Frank H. Koch Robert M. Scheller Jennifer Costanza |
| author_sort | Shakirudeen Lawal |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Recent changes of tree species demography in Texas likely can be attributed to climatic disturbances, particularly hot drought (i.e., drought exacerbated by extreme heat). In this study, we examined demographic change over East, Central and West Texas over a 16-year period (2004–2019), including a widely documented 2011 hot drought event. We used Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data to evaluate changes in tree count for the nine most abundant tree genera in Texas. Furthermore, we examined the associations between tree demography and the distribution of climate variables including the 12-month Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI12), potential evapotranspiration (PET), precipitation, vapour pressure deficit (VPD), maximum temperature and the Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId). Using Pearson Correlation Coefficient, we examined the influence of hot drought on forest demography by examining four size classes (seedlings, saplings, small trees and large trees). We found that there were declining trends for most genera between 2004 and 2019, particularly in the seedling and sapling size classes. In East Texas, there were significant decreasing trends of Quercus spp. seedling counts and sapling counts. We also observed significantly declining seedling and sapling counts of Liquidambar and the sapling count of Ulmus. Decreasing counts were most prominent in Central Texas and West Texas, though the patterns and trends were variable among genera. In West Texas, there were declines through time in all but the largest size class for Juniperus and Prosopis. Furthermore, we found that hot drought was correlated with declines in seedling and sapling counts. We demonstrate opportunities for monitoring demographic change, which can be a baseline for improved ecosystem management. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-6df499313d354b098297a0633935085e |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1470-160X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecological Indicators |
| spelling | doaj-art-6df499313d354b098297a0633935085e2025-02-04T04:10:20ZengElsevierEcological Indicators1470-160X2025-02-01171113117Forest demographic changes across Texas associated with hot droughtShakirudeen Lawal0Frank H. Koch1Robert M. Scheller2Jennifer Costanza3Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, NC 27695-8001, USA; Corresponding author.USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709, USADepartment of Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, NC 27695-8001, USAUSDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709, USARecent changes of tree species demography in Texas likely can be attributed to climatic disturbances, particularly hot drought (i.e., drought exacerbated by extreme heat). In this study, we examined demographic change over East, Central and West Texas over a 16-year period (2004–2019), including a widely documented 2011 hot drought event. We used Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data to evaluate changes in tree count for the nine most abundant tree genera in Texas. Furthermore, we examined the associations between tree demography and the distribution of climate variables including the 12-month Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI12), potential evapotranspiration (PET), precipitation, vapour pressure deficit (VPD), maximum temperature and the Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId). Using Pearson Correlation Coefficient, we examined the influence of hot drought on forest demography by examining four size classes (seedlings, saplings, small trees and large trees). We found that there were declining trends for most genera between 2004 and 2019, particularly in the seedling and sapling size classes. In East Texas, there were significant decreasing trends of Quercus spp. seedling counts and sapling counts. We also observed significantly declining seedling and sapling counts of Liquidambar and the sapling count of Ulmus. Decreasing counts were most prominent in Central Texas and West Texas, though the patterns and trends were variable among genera. In West Texas, there were declines through time in all but the largest size class for Juniperus and Prosopis. Furthermore, we found that hot drought was correlated with declines in seedling and sapling counts. We demonstrate opportunities for monitoring demographic change, which can be a baseline for improved ecosystem management.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25000469DisturbanceDroughtDemographic shiftsSignalling pathwayResilienceForests |
| spellingShingle | Shakirudeen Lawal Frank H. Koch Robert M. Scheller Jennifer Costanza Forest demographic changes across Texas associated with hot drought Ecological Indicators Disturbance Drought Demographic shifts Signalling pathway Resilience Forests |
| title | Forest demographic changes across Texas associated with hot drought |
| title_full | Forest demographic changes across Texas associated with hot drought |
| title_fullStr | Forest demographic changes across Texas associated with hot drought |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forest demographic changes across Texas associated with hot drought |
| title_short | Forest demographic changes across Texas associated with hot drought |
| title_sort | forest demographic changes across texas associated with hot drought |
| topic | Disturbance Drought Demographic shifts Signalling pathway Resilience Forests |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25000469 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT shakirudeenlawal forestdemographicchangesacrosstexasassociatedwithhotdrought AT frankhkoch forestdemographicchangesacrosstexasassociatedwithhotdrought AT robertmscheller forestdemographicchangesacrosstexasassociatedwithhotdrought AT jennifercostanza forestdemographicchangesacrosstexasassociatedwithhotdrought |