Observational Constraints on Basin‐Scale Runoff: A Request for Both Improved ESMs and Streamflow Reconstructions
Abstract Efforts to predict long‐term changes in continental runoff at both global and basin scales generally remain ambiguous. Here we use a global runoff reconstruction and a Bayesian statistical method to narrow uncertainties in runoff projections from the latest generation of global climate mode...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2024-07-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108824 |
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| author | H. Douville |
| author_facet | H. Douville |
| author_sort | H. Douville |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Efforts to predict long‐term changes in continental runoff at both global and basin scales generally remain ambiguous. Here we use a global runoff reconstruction and a Bayesian statistical method to narrow uncertainties in runoff projections from the latest generation of global climate models. Three representative tropical river basins are used to illustrate the application and showcase the potential for substantial reduction in modeling uncertainty. Yet, results are fairly sensitive to the selected reconstruction thus highlighting the need for reliable and homogeneized gridded runoff data sets or river discharge measurements. Moreover, climate models do not account for water withdrawals, whose effect on observed runoff should also be removed in order to detect and attribute the hydrological effect of climate change. Finally, and more importantly, most models fail at capturing the observed recent decrease in runoff ratio, which may highlight either model deficiencies or increasing water derivation over the selected river basins. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-6df0c7ecd4c047f18a2f8a0a6bc5b0d0 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-07-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-6df0c7ecd4c047f18a2f8a0a6bc5b0d02025-08-20T02:04:21ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072024-07-015113n/an/a10.1029/2024GL108824Observational Constraints on Basin‐Scale Runoff: A Request for Both Improved ESMs and Streamflow ReconstructionsH. Douville0Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques Université de Toulouse Météo‐France CNRS Toulouse FranceAbstract Efforts to predict long‐term changes in continental runoff at both global and basin scales generally remain ambiguous. Here we use a global runoff reconstruction and a Bayesian statistical method to narrow uncertainties in runoff projections from the latest generation of global climate models. Three representative tropical river basins are used to illustrate the application and showcase the potential for substantial reduction in modeling uncertainty. Yet, results are fairly sensitive to the selected reconstruction thus highlighting the need for reliable and homogeneized gridded runoff data sets or river discharge measurements. Moreover, climate models do not account for water withdrawals, whose effect on observed runoff should also be removed in order to detect and attribute the hydrological effect of climate change. Finally, and more importantly, most models fail at capturing the observed recent decrease in runoff ratio, which may highlight either model deficiencies or increasing water derivation over the selected river basins.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108824runoffprojectionsintermodel spreadobservational constraintBayesian statisticsrunoff to precipitation ratio |
| spellingShingle | H. Douville Observational Constraints on Basin‐Scale Runoff: A Request for Both Improved ESMs and Streamflow Reconstructions Geophysical Research Letters runoff projections intermodel spread observational constraint Bayesian statistics runoff to precipitation ratio |
| title | Observational Constraints on Basin‐Scale Runoff: A Request for Both Improved ESMs and Streamflow Reconstructions |
| title_full | Observational Constraints on Basin‐Scale Runoff: A Request for Both Improved ESMs and Streamflow Reconstructions |
| title_fullStr | Observational Constraints on Basin‐Scale Runoff: A Request for Both Improved ESMs and Streamflow Reconstructions |
| title_full_unstemmed | Observational Constraints on Basin‐Scale Runoff: A Request for Both Improved ESMs and Streamflow Reconstructions |
| title_short | Observational Constraints on Basin‐Scale Runoff: A Request for Both Improved ESMs and Streamflow Reconstructions |
| title_sort | observational constraints on basin scale runoff a request for both improved esms and streamflow reconstructions |
| topic | runoff projections intermodel spread observational constraint Bayesian statistics runoff to precipitation ratio |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108824 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT hdouville observationalconstraintsonbasinscalerunoffarequestforbothimprovedesmsandstreamflowreconstructions |