Electrification pathways for U.S. passenger vehicles
Abstract As electric vehicle (EV) adoption continues to accelerate, we explore the implications of different adoption trajectories that achieve a full transition to EVs by 2050 for U.S. light-duty passenger vehicles (LDVs). Using a vetted transportation system model, we find that achieving 100% EV s...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-07-01
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| Series: | npj Sustainable Mobility and Transport |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s44333-025-00052-6 |
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| _version_ | 1849761252243406848 |
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| author | Matteo Muratori Catherine Ledna Paige Jadun Chris Hoehne Arthur Yip Kara Podkaminer |
| author_facet | Matteo Muratori Catherine Ledna Paige Jadun Chris Hoehne Arthur Yip Kara Podkaminer |
| author_sort | Matteo Muratori |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract As electric vehicle (EV) adoption continues to accelerate, we explore the implications of different adoption trajectories that achieve a full transition to EVs by 2050 for U.S. light-duty passenger vehicles (LDVs). Using a vetted transportation system model, we find that achieving 100% EV sales by 2040 would decrease tailpipe greenhouse gases (GHGs) by 90% between 2022 and 2050, leaving about 45 million gasoline vehicles on the road. Achieving 100% sales by 2035, tailpipe emissions decrease 93%, with about 28 million gasoline vehicles on the road in 2050 (9% of stock). Slower EV adoption, reaching 100% sales by 2045, would result in 69 million gasoline vehicles on the road in 2050. Fully electrifying passenger vehicles by 2050 would require a full transition to EVs sales in the 2030s coupled with either changes to mobility, or an accelerated stock turnover in the 2040s with additional 19–30% annual LDV sales. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-6d85e85a06dc4c558173111fe51697f8 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 3004-8664 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Sustainable Mobility and Transport |
| spelling | doaj-art-6d85e85a06dc4c558173111fe51697f82025-08-20T03:06:05ZengNature Portfolionpj Sustainable Mobility and Transport3004-86642025-07-012111110.1038/s44333-025-00052-6Electrification pathways for U.S. passenger vehiclesMatteo Muratori0Catherine Ledna1Paige Jadun2Chris Hoehne3Arthur Yip4Kara Podkaminer5National Renewable Energy LaboratoryNational Renewable Energy LaboratoryNational Renewable Energy LaboratoryNational Renewable Energy LaboratoryNational Renewable Energy LaboratoryU.S. Department of EnergyAbstract As electric vehicle (EV) adoption continues to accelerate, we explore the implications of different adoption trajectories that achieve a full transition to EVs by 2050 for U.S. light-duty passenger vehicles (LDVs). Using a vetted transportation system model, we find that achieving 100% EV sales by 2040 would decrease tailpipe greenhouse gases (GHGs) by 90% between 2022 and 2050, leaving about 45 million gasoline vehicles on the road. Achieving 100% sales by 2035, tailpipe emissions decrease 93%, with about 28 million gasoline vehicles on the road in 2050 (9% of stock). Slower EV adoption, reaching 100% sales by 2045, would result in 69 million gasoline vehicles on the road in 2050. Fully electrifying passenger vehicles by 2050 would require a full transition to EVs sales in the 2030s coupled with either changes to mobility, or an accelerated stock turnover in the 2040s with additional 19–30% annual LDV sales.https://doi.org/10.1038/s44333-025-00052-6 |
| spellingShingle | Matteo Muratori Catherine Ledna Paige Jadun Chris Hoehne Arthur Yip Kara Podkaminer Electrification pathways for U.S. passenger vehicles npj Sustainable Mobility and Transport |
| title | Electrification pathways for U.S. passenger vehicles |
| title_full | Electrification pathways for U.S. passenger vehicles |
| title_fullStr | Electrification pathways for U.S. passenger vehicles |
| title_full_unstemmed | Electrification pathways for U.S. passenger vehicles |
| title_short | Electrification pathways for U.S. passenger vehicles |
| title_sort | electrification pathways for u s passenger vehicles |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s44333-025-00052-6 |
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