The effect of COVID-19 on completed suicide rate in Iran: an Interrupted Time Series study (ITS)
BackgroundSuicide represents a critical public health concern and one of the most devastating forms of death. Based on a report from the World Health Organization, around 700,000 deaths by suicide occur globally each year. In 2019, the worldwide suicide mortality rate was 9.0 per 100,000 people, whi...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Frontiers Media S.A.
2025-02-01
|
| Series: | Frontiers in Public Health |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2025.1387213/full |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1849721543517536256 |
|---|---|
| author | Azadeh Nouhi Siahroudi Seyed Saeed Hashemi Nazari Mahshid Namdari Mohammad Hossein Panahi Mohammad Hossein Panahi Seyed Amirhosein Mahdavi Ali Khademi |
| author_facet | Azadeh Nouhi Siahroudi Seyed Saeed Hashemi Nazari Mahshid Namdari Mohammad Hossein Panahi Mohammad Hossein Panahi Seyed Amirhosein Mahdavi Ali Khademi |
| author_sort | Azadeh Nouhi Siahroudi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | BackgroundSuicide represents a critical public health concern and one of the most devastating forms of death. Based on a report from the World Health Organization, around 700,000 deaths by suicide occur globally each year. In 2019, the worldwide suicide mortality rate was 9.0 per 100,000 people, while in Iran, this rate has been reported to be an average of 5.2 per 100,000. Suicide is influenced by various factors spanning individual, relational, community, and social domains, all of which may elevate the risk of suicide and related death. One significant factor potentially impacting this issue was the COVID-19 pandemic, which may have affected these trends by disrupting individuals’ social interactions and gatherings. To explore this further, the present study was carried out to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the changes in suicide rates leading to death in Iran.MethodsThis study was designed using an Interrupted Time Series approach combined with negative binomial regression. Seasonal variations were adjusted for using the harmonic method. The research sample comprised 63,514 suicide-related deaths recorded between April 20, 2009, and March 20, 2023. Suicide mortality data were sourced from the National Legal Medicine Organization, while population statistics were obtained from the official website of the Statistical Center of Iran. The study analyzed trends in suicide incidence both prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic. The period used to evaluate pandemic-related changes in Iran began in May 2020, following the World Health Organization’s declaration of COVID-19 as a global public health emergency. Descriptive analyses were performed using Stata software, and trend assessments through the Interrupted Time Series (ITS) method were conducted using R software and the “lmtest” statistical package.ResultsThe changes in the incidence of suicide during the study increased by 1.003 monthly (p < 0.001). This rate increased by 1.1 (p < 0.001) compared to the times before the onset of the pandemic after entering the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic in the model. When the interaction effect of time with the COVID-19 pandemic was added to the base model, no significant relationship was observed.ConclusionBefore the COVID-19 pandemic, suicides in Iran had a proportional increasing trend. However, three months after the pandemic, an increasing trend in the level of suicide deaths was observed. Most likely, the COVID-19 pandemic phenomenon had an impact on the occurrence of suicide. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-6cdae6dcea104b0fa8830660a21ede9f |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2296-2565 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Public Health |
| spelling | doaj-art-6cdae6dcea104b0fa8830660a21ede9f2025-08-20T03:11:37ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Public Health2296-25652025-02-011310.3389/fpubh.2025.13872131387213The effect of COVID-19 on completed suicide rate in Iran: an Interrupted Time Series study (ITS)Azadeh Nouhi Siahroudi0Seyed Saeed Hashemi Nazari1Mahshid Namdari2Mohammad Hossein Panahi3Mohammad Hossein Panahi4Seyed Amirhosein Mahdavi5Ali Khademi6Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Safety, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, IranDepartment of Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Safety, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, IranDepartment of Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Safety, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, IranDepartment of Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Safety, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, IranSafety Promotion and Injury Prevention Research Center, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, IranLegal Medicine Research Center, Legal Medicine Organization of IRAN, Tehran, IranLegal Medicine Research Center, Iranian Legal Medicine Organization, Tehran, IranBackgroundSuicide represents a critical public health concern and one of the most devastating forms of death. Based on a report from the World Health Organization, around 700,000 deaths by suicide occur globally each year. In 2019, the worldwide suicide mortality rate was 9.0 per 100,000 people, while in Iran, this rate has been reported to be an average of 5.2 per 100,000. Suicide is influenced by various factors spanning individual, relational, community, and social domains, all of which may elevate the risk of suicide and related death. One significant factor potentially impacting this issue was the COVID-19 pandemic, which may have affected these trends by disrupting individuals’ social interactions and gatherings. To explore this further, the present study was carried out to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the changes in suicide rates leading to death in Iran.MethodsThis study was designed using an Interrupted Time Series approach combined with negative binomial regression. Seasonal variations were adjusted for using the harmonic method. The research sample comprised 63,514 suicide-related deaths recorded between April 20, 2009, and March 20, 2023. Suicide mortality data were sourced from the National Legal Medicine Organization, while population statistics were obtained from the official website of the Statistical Center of Iran. The study analyzed trends in suicide incidence both prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic. The period used to evaluate pandemic-related changes in Iran began in May 2020, following the World Health Organization’s declaration of COVID-19 as a global public health emergency. Descriptive analyses were performed using Stata software, and trend assessments through the Interrupted Time Series (ITS) method were conducted using R software and the “lmtest” statistical package.ResultsThe changes in the incidence of suicide during the study increased by 1.003 monthly (p < 0.001). This rate increased by 1.1 (p < 0.001) compared to the times before the onset of the pandemic after entering the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic in the model. When the interaction effect of time with the COVID-19 pandemic was added to the base model, no significant relationship was observed.ConclusionBefore the COVID-19 pandemic, suicides in Iran had a proportional increasing trend. However, three months after the pandemic, an increasing trend in the level of suicide deaths was observed. Most likely, the COVID-19 pandemic phenomenon had an impact on the occurrence of suicide.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2025.1387213/fullcomplete suicideCOVID-19 diseaseInterrupted Time Series methodIranRate incidence |
| spellingShingle | Azadeh Nouhi Siahroudi Seyed Saeed Hashemi Nazari Mahshid Namdari Mohammad Hossein Panahi Mohammad Hossein Panahi Seyed Amirhosein Mahdavi Ali Khademi The effect of COVID-19 on completed suicide rate in Iran: an Interrupted Time Series study (ITS) Frontiers in Public Health complete suicide COVID-19 disease Interrupted Time Series method Iran Rate incidence |
| title | The effect of COVID-19 on completed suicide rate in Iran: an Interrupted Time Series study (ITS) |
| title_full | The effect of COVID-19 on completed suicide rate in Iran: an Interrupted Time Series study (ITS) |
| title_fullStr | The effect of COVID-19 on completed suicide rate in Iran: an Interrupted Time Series study (ITS) |
| title_full_unstemmed | The effect of COVID-19 on completed suicide rate in Iran: an Interrupted Time Series study (ITS) |
| title_short | The effect of COVID-19 on completed suicide rate in Iran: an Interrupted Time Series study (ITS) |
| title_sort | effect of covid 19 on completed suicide rate in iran an interrupted time series study its |
| topic | complete suicide COVID-19 disease Interrupted Time Series method Iran Rate incidence |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2025.1387213/full |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT azadehnouhisiahroudi theeffectofcovid19oncompletedsuiciderateinirananinterruptedtimeseriesstudyits AT seyedsaeedhasheminazari theeffectofcovid19oncompletedsuiciderateinirananinterruptedtimeseriesstudyits AT mahshidnamdari theeffectofcovid19oncompletedsuiciderateinirananinterruptedtimeseriesstudyits AT mohammadhosseinpanahi theeffectofcovid19oncompletedsuiciderateinirananinterruptedtimeseriesstudyits AT mohammadhosseinpanahi theeffectofcovid19oncompletedsuiciderateinirananinterruptedtimeseriesstudyits AT seyedamirhoseinmahdavi theeffectofcovid19oncompletedsuiciderateinirananinterruptedtimeseriesstudyits AT alikhademi theeffectofcovid19oncompletedsuiciderateinirananinterruptedtimeseriesstudyits AT azadehnouhisiahroudi effectofcovid19oncompletedsuiciderateinirananinterruptedtimeseriesstudyits AT seyedsaeedhasheminazari effectofcovid19oncompletedsuiciderateinirananinterruptedtimeseriesstudyits AT mahshidnamdari effectofcovid19oncompletedsuiciderateinirananinterruptedtimeseriesstudyits AT mohammadhosseinpanahi effectofcovid19oncompletedsuiciderateinirananinterruptedtimeseriesstudyits AT mohammadhosseinpanahi effectofcovid19oncompletedsuiciderateinirananinterruptedtimeseriesstudyits AT seyedamirhoseinmahdavi effectofcovid19oncompletedsuiciderateinirananinterruptedtimeseriesstudyits AT alikhademi effectofcovid19oncompletedsuiciderateinirananinterruptedtimeseriesstudyits |