What Controls the Evolution of Pacific Coastal Niño Events in the CESM Large Ensemble?

Abstract Coastal Niños, warm events in the far eastern tropical Pacific without corresponding strong anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific, strongly influence local rainfall and fisheries. However, individual events strongly differ from each other. They can develop into a basin‐wide El Niño (a...

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Main Authors: Daniel Rudloff, Joke F. Lübbecke
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2025-05-01
Series:Geophysical Research Letters
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113706
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author Daniel Rudloff
Joke F. Lübbecke
author_facet Daniel Rudloff
Joke F. Lübbecke
author_sort Daniel Rudloff
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Coastal Niños, warm events in the far eastern tropical Pacific without corresponding strong anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific, strongly influence local rainfall and fisheries. However, individual events strongly differ from each other. They can develop into a basin‐wide El Niño (as in 2023) or stay confined to the South American coast (as in 2017). The large event‐to‐event variability in combination with the rarity of events in the observational record limits our understanding of Coastal Niños. The Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble Project (CESM‐LE) simulates Coastal Niños realistically, including their phase‐locking to boreal spring and variable evolution. Conditions in the subtropical Pacific, equatorial wave dynamics and western tropical Pacific wind anomalies are identified as factors important for the evolution of Coastal Niños in the CESM‐LE. Coastal Niños in turn increase the probability of a basin‐wide El Niño in the following months.
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spelling doaj-art-6c0b4fef3b454948a2c12ad99182770a2025-08-20T03:12:52ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072025-05-01529n/an/a10.1029/2024GL113706What Controls the Evolution of Pacific Coastal Niño Events in the CESM Large Ensemble?Daniel Rudloff0Joke F. Lübbecke1Geomar Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel Kiel GermanyGeomar Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel Kiel GermanyAbstract Coastal Niños, warm events in the far eastern tropical Pacific without corresponding strong anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific, strongly influence local rainfall and fisheries. However, individual events strongly differ from each other. They can develop into a basin‐wide El Niño (as in 2023) or stay confined to the South American coast (as in 2017). The large event‐to‐event variability in combination with the rarity of events in the observational record limits our understanding of Coastal Niños. The Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble Project (CESM‐LE) simulates Coastal Niños realistically, including their phase‐locking to boreal spring and variable evolution. Conditions in the subtropical Pacific, equatorial wave dynamics and western tropical Pacific wind anomalies are identified as factors important for the evolution of Coastal Niños in the CESM‐LE. Coastal Niños in turn increase the probability of a basin‐wide El Niño in the following months.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113706coastal NiñoENSO diversityclimate modelling
spellingShingle Daniel Rudloff
Joke F. Lübbecke
What Controls the Evolution of Pacific Coastal Niño Events in the CESM Large Ensemble?
Geophysical Research Letters
coastal Niño
ENSO diversity
climate modelling
title What Controls the Evolution of Pacific Coastal Niño Events in the CESM Large Ensemble?
title_full What Controls the Evolution of Pacific Coastal Niño Events in the CESM Large Ensemble?
title_fullStr What Controls the Evolution of Pacific Coastal Niño Events in the CESM Large Ensemble?
title_full_unstemmed What Controls the Evolution of Pacific Coastal Niño Events in the CESM Large Ensemble?
title_short What Controls the Evolution of Pacific Coastal Niño Events in the CESM Large Ensemble?
title_sort what controls the evolution of pacific coastal nino events in the cesm large ensemble
topic coastal Niño
ENSO diversity
climate modelling
url https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113706
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