What Controls the Evolution of Pacific Coastal Niño Events in the CESM Large Ensemble?
Abstract Coastal Niños, warm events in the far eastern tropical Pacific without corresponding strong anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific, strongly influence local rainfall and fisheries. However, individual events strongly differ from each other. They can develop into a basin‐wide El Niño (a...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-05-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113706 |
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| author | Daniel Rudloff Joke F. Lübbecke |
| author_facet | Daniel Rudloff Joke F. Lübbecke |
| author_sort | Daniel Rudloff |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Coastal Niños, warm events in the far eastern tropical Pacific without corresponding strong anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific, strongly influence local rainfall and fisheries. However, individual events strongly differ from each other. They can develop into a basin‐wide El Niño (as in 2023) or stay confined to the South American coast (as in 2017). The large event‐to‐event variability in combination with the rarity of events in the observational record limits our understanding of Coastal Niños. The Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble Project (CESM‐LE) simulates Coastal Niños realistically, including their phase‐locking to boreal spring and variable evolution. Conditions in the subtropical Pacific, equatorial wave dynamics and western tropical Pacific wind anomalies are identified as factors important for the evolution of Coastal Niños in the CESM‐LE. Coastal Niños in turn increase the probability of a basin‐wide El Niño in the following months. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-6c0b4fef3b454948a2c12ad99182770a |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-05-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-6c0b4fef3b454948a2c12ad99182770a2025-08-20T03:12:52ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072025-05-01529n/an/a10.1029/2024GL113706What Controls the Evolution of Pacific Coastal Niño Events in the CESM Large Ensemble?Daniel Rudloff0Joke F. Lübbecke1Geomar Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel Kiel GermanyGeomar Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel Kiel GermanyAbstract Coastal Niños, warm events in the far eastern tropical Pacific without corresponding strong anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific, strongly influence local rainfall and fisheries. However, individual events strongly differ from each other. They can develop into a basin‐wide El Niño (as in 2023) or stay confined to the South American coast (as in 2017). The large event‐to‐event variability in combination with the rarity of events in the observational record limits our understanding of Coastal Niños. The Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble Project (CESM‐LE) simulates Coastal Niños realistically, including their phase‐locking to boreal spring and variable evolution. Conditions in the subtropical Pacific, equatorial wave dynamics and western tropical Pacific wind anomalies are identified as factors important for the evolution of Coastal Niños in the CESM‐LE. Coastal Niños in turn increase the probability of a basin‐wide El Niño in the following months.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113706coastal NiñoENSO diversityclimate modelling |
| spellingShingle | Daniel Rudloff Joke F. Lübbecke What Controls the Evolution of Pacific Coastal Niño Events in the CESM Large Ensemble? Geophysical Research Letters coastal Niño ENSO diversity climate modelling |
| title | What Controls the Evolution of Pacific Coastal Niño Events in the CESM Large Ensemble? |
| title_full | What Controls the Evolution of Pacific Coastal Niño Events in the CESM Large Ensemble? |
| title_fullStr | What Controls the Evolution of Pacific Coastal Niño Events in the CESM Large Ensemble? |
| title_full_unstemmed | What Controls the Evolution of Pacific Coastal Niño Events in the CESM Large Ensemble? |
| title_short | What Controls the Evolution of Pacific Coastal Niño Events in the CESM Large Ensemble? |
| title_sort | what controls the evolution of pacific coastal nino events in the cesm large ensemble |
| topic | coastal Niño ENSO diversity climate modelling |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113706 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT danielrudloff whatcontrolstheevolutionofpacificcoastalninoeventsinthecesmlargeensemble AT jokeflubbecke whatcontrolstheevolutionofpacificcoastalninoeventsinthecesmlargeensemble |