COVID-19 in Ethiopia: a geospatial analysis of vulnerability to infection, case severity and death

Background COVID-19 has caused a global public health crisis affecting most countries, including Ethiopia, in various ways. This study maps the vulnerability to infection, case severity and likelihood of death from COVID-19 in Ethiopia.Methods Thirty-eight potential indicators of vulnerability to CO...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Hailay Gesesew, Kefyalew Addis Alene, Akilew Awoke Adane, Berihun Assefa Dachew, Asnakew Achaw Ayele, Henok Getachew Tegegn, Yohannes Kinfu, Yohannes Adama Melaku, Mulugeta Molla Birhanu, Hassen Mohammed, Yalemzewod Assefa Gelaw, Dagnachew Muluye Fetene, Digsu N. Koye, Muluken Dessalegn Muluneh, Solomon Abrha, Atsede Aregay, Woldesellassie M Bezabhe, Kidane Tadesse Gebremariam, Tesfaye Gebremedhin, Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin, Lemlem Gebremichael, Ayele Bali Geleto, Habtamu Tilahun Kassahun, Getiye Dejenu Kibret, Cheru Tesema Leshargie, Alemayehu Mekonnen, Alemnesh H. Mirkuzie, Azeb Gebresilassie Tesema, Fisaha Haile Tesfay, Befikadu Legesse Wubishet
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: BMJ Publishing Group 2021-02-01
Series:BMJ Open
Online Access:https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/11/2/e044606.full
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1846163691261657088
author Hailay Gesesew
Kefyalew Addis Alene
Akilew Awoke Adane
Berihun Assefa Dachew
Asnakew Achaw Ayele
Henok Getachew Tegegn
Yohannes Kinfu
Yohannes Adama Melaku
Mulugeta Molla Birhanu
Hassen Mohammed
Yalemzewod Assefa Gelaw
Dagnachew Muluye Fetene
Digsu N. Koye
Muluken Dessalegn Muluneh
Solomon Abrha
Atsede Aregay
Woldesellassie M Bezabhe
Kidane Tadesse Gebremariam
Tesfaye Gebremedhin
Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin
Lemlem Gebremichael
Ayele Bali Geleto
Habtamu Tilahun Kassahun
Getiye Dejenu Kibret
Cheru Tesema Leshargie
Alemayehu Mekonnen
Alemnesh H. Mirkuzie
Azeb Gebresilassie Tesema
Fisaha Haile Tesfay
Befikadu Legesse Wubishet
author_facet Hailay Gesesew
Kefyalew Addis Alene
Akilew Awoke Adane
Berihun Assefa Dachew
Asnakew Achaw Ayele
Henok Getachew Tegegn
Yohannes Kinfu
Yohannes Adama Melaku
Mulugeta Molla Birhanu
Hassen Mohammed
Yalemzewod Assefa Gelaw
Dagnachew Muluye Fetene
Digsu N. Koye
Muluken Dessalegn Muluneh
Solomon Abrha
Atsede Aregay
Woldesellassie M Bezabhe
Kidane Tadesse Gebremariam
Tesfaye Gebremedhin
Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin
Lemlem Gebremichael
Ayele Bali Geleto
Habtamu Tilahun Kassahun
Getiye Dejenu Kibret
Cheru Tesema Leshargie
Alemayehu Mekonnen
Alemnesh H. Mirkuzie
Azeb Gebresilassie Tesema
Fisaha Haile Tesfay
Befikadu Legesse Wubishet
author_sort Hailay Gesesew
collection DOAJ
description Background COVID-19 has caused a global public health crisis affecting most countries, including Ethiopia, in various ways. This study maps the vulnerability to infection, case severity and likelihood of death from COVID-19 in Ethiopia.Methods Thirty-eight potential indicators of vulnerability to COVID-19 infection, case severity and likelihood of death, identified based on a literature review and the availability of nationally representative data at a low geographic scale, were assembled from multiple sources for geospatial analysis. Geospatial analysis techniques were applied to produce maps showing the vulnerability to infection, case severity and likelihood of death in Ethiopia at a spatial resolution of 1 km×1 km.Results This study showed that vulnerability to COVID-19 infection is likely to be high across most parts of Ethiopia, particularly in the Somali, Afar, Amhara, Oromia and Tigray regions. The number of severe cases of COVID-19 infection requiring hospitalisation and intensive care unit admission is likely to be high across Amhara, most parts of Oromia and some parts of the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples’ Region. The risk of COVID-19-related death is high in the country’s border regions, where public health preparedness for responding to COVID-19 is limited.Conclusion This study revealed geographical differences in vulnerability to infection, case severity and likelihood of death from COVID-19 in Ethiopia. The study offers maps that can guide the targeted interventions necessary to contain the spread of COVID-19 in Ethiopia.
format Article
id doaj-art-6bd50b7aa2324f6e882658f2b9d75885
institution Kabale University
issn 2044-6055
language English
publishDate 2021-02-01
publisher BMJ Publishing Group
record_format Article
series BMJ Open
spelling doaj-art-6bd50b7aa2324f6e882658f2b9d758852024-11-19T04:30:10ZengBMJ Publishing GroupBMJ Open2044-60552021-02-0111210.1136/bmjopen-2020-044606COVID-19 in Ethiopia: a geospatial analysis of vulnerability to infection, case severity and deathHailay Gesesew0Kefyalew Addis Alene1Akilew Awoke Adane2Berihun Assefa Dachew3Asnakew Achaw Ayele4Henok Getachew Tegegn5Yohannes Kinfu6Yohannes Adama Melaku7Mulugeta Molla Birhanu8Hassen Mohammed9Yalemzewod Assefa Gelaw10Dagnachew Muluye Fetene11Digsu N. Koye12Muluken Dessalegn Muluneh13Solomon Abrha14Atsede Aregay15Woldesellassie M Bezabhe16Kidane Tadesse Gebremariam17Tesfaye Gebremedhin18Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin19Lemlem Gebremichael20Ayele Bali Geleto21Habtamu Tilahun Kassahun22Getiye Dejenu Kibret23Cheru Tesema Leshargie24Alemayehu Mekonnen25Alemnesh H. Mirkuzie26Azeb Gebresilassie Tesema27Fisaha Haile Tesfay28Befikadu Legesse Wubishet29Public Health, Flinders University, Adelaide, South Australia, AustraliaGeospatial and Tuberculosis Research Team, Telethon Kids Institute, Perth, Western Australia, Australia1 Institute of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Gondar, Gondar, EthiopiaSchool of Population Health, Curtin University, Perth, Western Australia, AustraliaDepartment of clinical pharmacy, School of Pharmacy, College of Medicineand Health Science, University of Gondar, Gondar, EthiopiaDepartment of clinical pharmacy, School of Pharmacy, College of Medicineand Health Science, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia3 University of Canberra, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia1 Adelaide Institute for Sleep Health, College of Medicine and Public Health, Flinders University, Adelaide, South Australia, AustraliaDepartment of Medicine, School of Clinical Sciences at Monash Health, Faculty of Medicine, Nursing, and Health Sciences, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia37 Vaccinology and Immunology Research Trials Unit, Women’s and Children’s Health Network, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia5 Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Institute of Public Health, University of Gondar, Gondar, EthiopiaBurnet Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, AustraliaDepartment of Medicine at Royal Melbourne Hospital and Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, AustraliaWestern Sydney University, Penrith South, New South Wales, AustraliaFaculty of Health, University of Canberra, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, AustraliaMonash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia14 Faculty of Health, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia7 School of Public Health, Mekelle University, Mekelle, EthiopiaUniversity of Canberra, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, AustraliaWesfarmers Centre of Vaccines and Infectious Diseases, Telethon Kids Institute, Nedlands, Western Australia, AustraliaCaring Futures Institute, College of Nursing and Health Sciences, Flinders University, Adelaide, South Australia, AustraliaHaramaya University, Dire Dawa, EthiopiaAustralian Rivers Institute, Griffith University, Nathan, Queensland, Australia28 Public Health, Debre Markos University, Debre Markos, EthiopiaDepartment of Public Health, College of Health Science, Debre Markos University, Debre Markos, Amhara, Ethiopia33 Centre for Quality and Patient Safety Research, School of Nursing and Midwifery, Institute for Health Transformation, Deakin University, Burwood, VIC, Australia35 Ethiopian Public Health Institute, Addis Ababa, EthiopiaThe George Institute for Global Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of New South Wales (UNSW), Sydney, NSW, AustraliaSchool of Public Health, Mekelle University, Mekelle University College of Health Sciences, Mekelle, EthiopiaSchool of Pharmacy, Mekelle University, Mekelle, EthiopiaBackground COVID-19 has caused a global public health crisis affecting most countries, including Ethiopia, in various ways. This study maps the vulnerability to infection, case severity and likelihood of death from COVID-19 in Ethiopia.Methods Thirty-eight potential indicators of vulnerability to COVID-19 infection, case severity and likelihood of death, identified based on a literature review and the availability of nationally representative data at a low geographic scale, were assembled from multiple sources for geospatial analysis. Geospatial analysis techniques were applied to produce maps showing the vulnerability to infection, case severity and likelihood of death in Ethiopia at a spatial resolution of 1 km×1 km.Results This study showed that vulnerability to COVID-19 infection is likely to be high across most parts of Ethiopia, particularly in the Somali, Afar, Amhara, Oromia and Tigray regions. The number of severe cases of COVID-19 infection requiring hospitalisation and intensive care unit admission is likely to be high across Amhara, most parts of Oromia and some parts of the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples’ Region. The risk of COVID-19-related death is high in the country’s border regions, where public health preparedness for responding to COVID-19 is limited.Conclusion This study revealed geographical differences in vulnerability to infection, case severity and likelihood of death from COVID-19 in Ethiopia. The study offers maps that can guide the targeted interventions necessary to contain the spread of COVID-19 in Ethiopia.https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/11/2/e044606.full
spellingShingle Hailay Gesesew
Kefyalew Addis Alene
Akilew Awoke Adane
Berihun Assefa Dachew
Asnakew Achaw Ayele
Henok Getachew Tegegn
Yohannes Kinfu
Yohannes Adama Melaku
Mulugeta Molla Birhanu
Hassen Mohammed
Yalemzewod Assefa Gelaw
Dagnachew Muluye Fetene
Digsu N. Koye
Muluken Dessalegn Muluneh
Solomon Abrha
Atsede Aregay
Woldesellassie M Bezabhe
Kidane Tadesse Gebremariam
Tesfaye Gebremedhin
Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin
Lemlem Gebremichael
Ayele Bali Geleto
Habtamu Tilahun Kassahun
Getiye Dejenu Kibret
Cheru Tesema Leshargie
Alemayehu Mekonnen
Alemnesh H. Mirkuzie
Azeb Gebresilassie Tesema
Fisaha Haile Tesfay
Befikadu Legesse Wubishet
COVID-19 in Ethiopia: a geospatial analysis of vulnerability to infection, case severity and death
BMJ Open
title COVID-19 in Ethiopia: a geospatial analysis of vulnerability to infection, case severity and death
title_full COVID-19 in Ethiopia: a geospatial analysis of vulnerability to infection, case severity and death
title_fullStr COVID-19 in Ethiopia: a geospatial analysis of vulnerability to infection, case severity and death
title_full_unstemmed COVID-19 in Ethiopia: a geospatial analysis of vulnerability to infection, case severity and death
title_short COVID-19 in Ethiopia: a geospatial analysis of vulnerability to infection, case severity and death
title_sort covid 19 in ethiopia a geospatial analysis of vulnerability to infection case severity and death
url https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/11/2/e044606.full
work_keys_str_mv AT hailaygesesew covid19inethiopiaageospatialanalysisofvulnerabilitytoinfectioncaseseverityanddeath
AT kefyalewaddisalene covid19inethiopiaageospatialanalysisofvulnerabilitytoinfectioncaseseverityanddeath
AT akilewawokeadane covid19inethiopiaageospatialanalysisofvulnerabilitytoinfectioncaseseverityanddeath
AT berihunassefadachew covid19inethiopiaageospatialanalysisofvulnerabilitytoinfectioncaseseverityanddeath
AT asnakewachawayele covid19inethiopiaageospatialanalysisofvulnerabilitytoinfectioncaseseverityanddeath
AT henokgetachewtegegn covid19inethiopiaageospatialanalysisofvulnerabilitytoinfectioncaseseverityanddeath
AT yohanneskinfu covid19inethiopiaageospatialanalysisofvulnerabilitytoinfectioncaseseverityanddeath
AT yohannesadamamelaku covid19inethiopiaageospatialanalysisofvulnerabilitytoinfectioncaseseverityanddeath
AT mulugetamollabirhanu covid19inethiopiaageospatialanalysisofvulnerabilitytoinfectioncaseseverityanddeath
AT hassenmohammed covid19inethiopiaageospatialanalysisofvulnerabilitytoinfectioncaseseverityanddeath
AT yalemzewodassefagelaw covid19inethiopiaageospatialanalysisofvulnerabilitytoinfectioncaseseverityanddeath
AT dagnachewmuluyefetene covid19inethiopiaageospatialanalysisofvulnerabilitytoinfectioncaseseverityanddeath
AT digsunkoye covid19inethiopiaageospatialanalysisofvulnerabilitytoinfectioncaseseverityanddeath
AT mulukendessalegnmuluneh covid19inethiopiaageospatialanalysisofvulnerabilitytoinfectioncaseseverityanddeath
AT solomonabrha covid19inethiopiaageospatialanalysisofvulnerabilitytoinfectioncaseseverityanddeath
AT atsedearegay covid19inethiopiaageospatialanalysisofvulnerabilitytoinfectioncaseseverityanddeath
AT woldesellassiembezabhe covid19inethiopiaageospatialanalysisofvulnerabilitytoinfectioncaseseverityanddeath
AT kidanetadessegebremariam covid19inethiopiaageospatialanalysisofvulnerabilitytoinfectioncaseseverityanddeath
AT tesfayegebremedhin covid19inethiopiaageospatialanalysisofvulnerabilitytoinfectioncaseseverityanddeath
AT amanueltesfaygebremedhin covid19inethiopiaageospatialanalysisofvulnerabilitytoinfectioncaseseverityanddeath
AT lemlemgebremichael covid19inethiopiaageospatialanalysisofvulnerabilitytoinfectioncaseseverityanddeath
AT ayelebaligeleto covid19inethiopiaageospatialanalysisofvulnerabilitytoinfectioncaseseverityanddeath
AT habtamutilahunkassahun covid19inethiopiaageospatialanalysisofvulnerabilitytoinfectioncaseseverityanddeath
AT getiyedejenukibret covid19inethiopiaageospatialanalysisofvulnerabilitytoinfectioncaseseverityanddeath
AT cherutesemaleshargie covid19inethiopiaageospatialanalysisofvulnerabilitytoinfectioncaseseverityanddeath
AT alemayehumekonnen covid19inethiopiaageospatialanalysisofvulnerabilitytoinfectioncaseseverityanddeath
AT alemneshhmirkuzie covid19inethiopiaageospatialanalysisofvulnerabilitytoinfectioncaseseverityanddeath
AT azebgebresilassietesema covid19inethiopiaageospatialanalysisofvulnerabilitytoinfectioncaseseverityanddeath
AT fisahahailetesfay covid19inethiopiaageospatialanalysisofvulnerabilitytoinfectioncaseseverityanddeath
AT befikadulegessewubishet covid19inethiopiaageospatialanalysisofvulnerabilitytoinfectioncaseseverityanddeath