Integrating WOFOST and Deep Learning for Winter Wheat Yield Estimation in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain

The Huang-Huai-Hai Plain is one of China’s primary winter wheat production regions, making accurate yield estimation critical for agricultural decision-making and national food security. In this study, a yield estimation framework was developed by integrating Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 satellite data...

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Main Authors: Yachao Zhao, Xin Du, Jingyuan Xu, Qiangzi Li, Yuan Zhang, Hongyan Wang, Sifeng Yan, Shuguang Gong, Haoxuan Hu
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2025-06-01
Series:Agriculture
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Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/15/12/1257
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author Yachao Zhao
Xin Du
Jingyuan Xu
Qiangzi Li
Yuan Zhang
Hongyan Wang
Sifeng Yan
Shuguang Gong
Haoxuan Hu
author_facet Yachao Zhao
Xin Du
Jingyuan Xu
Qiangzi Li
Yuan Zhang
Hongyan Wang
Sifeng Yan
Shuguang Gong
Haoxuan Hu
author_sort Yachao Zhao
collection DOAJ
description The Huang-Huai-Hai Plain is one of China’s primary winter wheat production regions, making accurate yield estimation critical for agricultural decision-making and national food security. In this study, a yield estimation framework was developed by integrating Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 satellite data with the WOFOST crop growth model and deep learning techniques. Initially, a multi-scenario sample dataset was constructed using historical meteorological and agronomic data through the WOFOST model. Leaf Area Index (LAI) values were then derived from Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 imagery, and a GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit) neural network was trained on the simulation samples to establish a relationship between LAI and yield. This trained model was applied to the remote sensing-derived LAI to generate initial yield estimates. To enhance accuracy, the results were further corrected using county-level statistical data, producing a spatially explicit winter wheat yield dataset for the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain from 2014 to 2022. Validation against statistical yearbook data at the county level demonstrated a correlation coefficient (r) of 0.659, a root mean square error (RMSE) of 578.34 kg/ha, and a mean relative error (MRE) of 6.63%. These results indicate that the dataset provides reliable regional-scale yield estimates, offering valuable support for agricultural planning and policy development.
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spelling doaj-art-6bc513a2dfc644729285fba0ee6cc3e22025-08-20T03:24:26ZengMDPI AGAgriculture2077-04722025-06-011512125710.3390/agriculture15121257Integrating WOFOST and Deep Learning for Winter Wheat Yield Estimation in the Huang-Huai-Hai PlainYachao Zhao0Xin Du1Jingyuan Xu2Qiangzi Li3Yuan Zhang4Hongyan Wang5Sifeng Yan6Shuguang Gong7Haoxuan Hu8Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, ChinaAerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, ChinaAerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, ChinaAerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, ChinaAerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, ChinaAerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, ChinaAerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, ChinaAerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, ChinaAerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, ChinaThe Huang-Huai-Hai Plain is one of China’s primary winter wheat production regions, making accurate yield estimation critical for agricultural decision-making and national food security. In this study, a yield estimation framework was developed by integrating Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 satellite data with the WOFOST crop growth model and deep learning techniques. Initially, a multi-scenario sample dataset was constructed using historical meteorological and agronomic data through the WOFOST model. Leaf Area Index (LAI) values were then derived from Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 imagery, and a GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit) neural network was trained on the simulation samples to establish a relationship between LAI and yield. This trained model was applied to the remote sensing-derived LAI to generate initial yield estimates. To enhance accuracy, the results were further corrected using county-level statistical data, producing a spatially explicit winter wheat yield dataset for the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain from 2014 to 2022. Validation against statistical yearbook data at the county level demonstrated a correlation coefficient (r) of 0.659, a root mean square error (RMSE) of 578.34 kg/ha, and a mean relative error (MRE) of 6.63%. These results indicate that the dataset provides reliable regional-scale yield estimates, offering valuable support for agricultural planning and policy development.https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/15/12/1257yield estimationremote sensingcrop growth modelwinter wheat
spellingShingle Yachao Zhao
Xin Du
Jingyuan Xu
Qiangzi Li
Yuan Zhang
Hongyan Wang
Sifeng Yan
Shuguang Gong
Haoxuan Hu
Integrating WOFOST and Deep Learning for Winter Wheat Yield Estimation in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain
Agriculture
yield estimation
remote sensing
crop growth model
winter wheat
title Integrating WOFOST and Deep Learning for Winter Wheat Yield Estimation in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain
title_full Integrating WOFOST and Deep Learning for Winter Wheat Yield Estimation in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain
title_fullStr Integrating WOFOST and Deep Learning for Winter Wheat Yield Estimation in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain
title_full_unstemmed Integrating WOFOST and Deep Learning for Winter Wheat Yield Estimation in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain
title_short Integrating WOFOST and Deep Learning for Winter Wheat Yield Estimation in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain
title_sort integrating wofost and deep learning for winter wheat yield estimation in the huang huai hai plain
topic yield estimation
remote sensing
crop growth model
winter wheat
url https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/15/12/1257
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