Climate-driven land cover change and altitudinal shifts in the Aksu region of the Tianshan mountains from 1985 to 2020

Abstract The Tianshan Mountains serve as a critical freshwater reservoir in Central Asia’s arid region, playing a key role in regional ecological and economic development. To assess the response of the Tianshan Mountains to climate change, this study analyzes the spatiotemporal dynamics and altitudi...

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Main Authors: Zhimin Feng, Haiqiang Xin, Yong Wang, Hairong Liu
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-06-01
Series:Scientific Reports
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Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-03574-8
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author Zhimin Feng
Haiqiang Xin
Yong Wang
Hairong Liu
author_facet Zhimin Feng
Haiqiang Xin
Yong Wang
Hairong Liu
author_sort Zhimin Feng
collection DOAJ
description Abstract The Tianshan Mountains serve as a critical freshwater reservoir in Central Asia’s arid region, playing a key role in regional ecological and economic development. To assess the response of the Tianshan Mountains to climate change, this study analyzes the spatiotemporal dynamics and altitudinal differentiation of land cover using land use transition matrices and annual change rate analysis to assess vegetation shifts under climate variability in the Aksu section of the Tianshan Mountains based on 30-m resolution land cover datasets from 1985, 2005, and 2020 integrated with climate data trends. By focusing on a 35-year period, this research captures significant climate variability and its influence on vegetation and land cover transitions. Notable changes were recorded, with forest areas expanding by 320.5 km2 due to increased temperatures and precipitation, grasslands decreasing by 1110.7 km2, and snow/ice increasing by 242.8 km2 over the study period. Grasslands decreased, with much of this area transitioning to forests and snow/ice. These findings underscore the dual climatic influences of “warming” and ”wetting”, and the upward shifts in land cover boundaries. These findings distinguish the warming effect that promoted forest expansion from the wetting effect that enhanced snow/ice coverage, underscoring the climatic dual role in shaping high-altitude ecosystems. Innovative applications of land use transition matrices and altitudinal zonation analysis provide a quantitative foundation for understanding climate-induced vegetation shifts. Altitudinal zonation in the Aksu region above 2300 m exhibited a distinct pattern, transitioning from grassland at lower elevations to forest-grassland mosaics, bare land, and finally snow/ice at the highest elevations. These changes highlight the dominant role of climate variability in driving land cover changes over the study period. Furthermore, these findings underscore the ecological implications of grassland loss and forest encroachment. These findings offer critical insights for ecological conservation and sustainable resource management in arid mountain ecosystems.
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spelling doaj-art-6a74ed35f3874f45b23ddd0bb353ca122025-08-20T03:10:32ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-06-0115111410.1038/s41598-025-03574-8Climate-driven land cover change and altitudinal shifts in the Aksu region of the Tianshan mountains from 1985 to 2020Zhimin Feng0Haiqiang Xin1Yong Wang2Hairong Liu3Urumqi Meteorological Satellite Ground StationXinjiang Academy of Surveying and MappingUrumqi Meteorological Satellite Ground StationXinjiang Aksu Meteorological BureauAbstract The Tianshan Mountains serve as a critical freshwater reservoir in Central Asia’s arid region, playing a key role in regional ecological and economic development. To assess the response of the Tianshan Mountains to climate change, this study analyzes the spatiotemporal dynamics and altitudinal differentiation of land cover using land use transition matrices and annual change rate analysis to assess vegetation shifts under climate variability in the Aksu section of the Tianshan Mountains based on 30-m resolution land cover datasets from 1985, 2005, and 2020 integrated with climate data trends. By focusing on a 35-year period, this research captures significant climate variability and its influence on vegetation and land cover transitions. Notable changes were recorded, with forest areas expanding by 320.5 km2 due to increased temperatures and precipitation, grasslands decreasing by 1110.7 km2, and snow/ice increasing by 242.8 km2 over the study period. Grasslands decreased, with much of this area transitioning to forests and snow/ice. These findings underscore the dual climatic influences of “warming” and ”wetting”, and the upward shifts in land cover boundaries. These findings distinguish the warming effect that promoted forest expansion from the wetting effect that enhanced snow/ice coverage, underscoring the climatic dual role in shaping high-altitude ecosystems. Innovative applications of land use transition matrices and altitudinal zonation analysis provide a quantitative foundation for understanding climate-induced vegetation shifts. Altitudinal zonation in the Aksu region above 2300 m exhibited a distinct pattern, transitioning from grassland at lower elevations to forest-grassland mosaics, bare land, and finally snow/ice at the highest elevations. These changes highlight the dominant role of climate variability in driving land cover changes over the study period. Furthermore, these findings underscore the ecological implications of grassland loss and forest encroachment. These findings offer critical insights for ecological conservation and sustainable resource management in arid mountain ecosystems.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-03574-8Tianshan mountainsLand cover changeClimate changeAltitudinal differentiationLand cover dynamicsLand use transition
spellingShingle Zhimin Feng
Haiqiang Xin
Yong Wang
Hairong Liu
Climate-driven land cover change and altitudinal shifts in the Aksu region of the Tianshan mountains from 1985 to 2020
Scientific Reports
Tianshan mountains
Land cover change
Climate change
Altitudinal differentiation
Land cover dynamics
Land use transition
title Climate-driven land cover change and altitudinal shifts in the Aksu region of the Tianshan mountains from 1985 to 2020
title_full Climate-driven land cover change and altitudinal shifts in the Aksu region of the Tianshan mountains from 1985 to 2020
title_fullStr Climate-driven land cover change and altitudinal shifts in the Aksu region of the Tianshan mountains from 1985 to 2020
title_full_unstemmed Climate-driven land cover change and altitudinal shifts in the Aksu region of the Tianshan mountains from 1985 to 2020
title_short Climate-driven land cover change and altitudinal shifts in the Aksu region of the Tianshan mountains from 1985 to 2020
title_sort climate driven land cover change and altitudinal shifts in the aksu region of the tianshan mountains from 1985 to 2020
topic Tianshan mountains
Land cover change
Climate change
Altitudinal differentiation
Land cover dynamics
Land use transition
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-03574-8
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AT yongwang climatedrivenlandcoverchangeandaltitudinalshiftsintheaksuregionofthetianshanmountainsfrom1985to2020
AT hairongliu climatedrivenlandcoverchangeandaltitudinalshiftsintheaksuregionofthetianshanmountainsfrom1985to2020