The Adaptive-Clustering and Error-Correction Method for Forecasting Cyanobacteria Blooms in Lakes and Reservoirs

Globally, cyanobacteria blooms frequently occur, and effective prediction of cyanobacteria blooms in lakes and reservoirs could constitute an essential proactive strategy for water-resource protection. However, cyanobacteria blooms are very complicated because of the internal stochastic nature of th...

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Main Authors: Xiao-zhe Bai, Hui-yan Zhang, Xiao-yi Wang, Li Wang, Ji-ping Xu, Jia-bin Yu
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2017-01-01
Series:Advances in Mathematical Physics
Online Access:http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2017/9037358
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author Xiao-zhe Bai
Hui-yan Zhang
Xiao-yi Wang
Li Wang
Ji-ping Xu
Jia-bin Yu
author_facet Xiao-zhe Bai
Hui-yan Zhang
Xiao-yi Wang
Li Wang
Ji-ping Xu
Jia-bin Yu
author_sort Xiao-zhe Bai
collection DOAJ
description Globally, cyanobacteria blooms frequently occur, and effective prediction of cyanobacteria blooms in lakes and reservoirs could constitute an essential proactive strategy for water-resource protection. However, cyanobacteria blooms are very complicated because of the internal stochastic nature of the system evolution and the external uncertainty of the observation data. In this study, an adaptive-clustering algorithm is introduced to obtain some typical operating intervals. In addition, the number of nearest neighbors used for modeling was optimized by particle swarm optimization. Finally, a fuzzy linear regression method based on error-correction was used to revise the model dynamically near the operating point. We found that the combined method can characterize the evolutionary track of cyanobacteria blooms in lakes and reservoirs. The model constructed in this paper is compared to other cyanobacteria-bloom forecasting methods (e.g., phase space reconstruction and traditional-clustering linear regression), and, then, the average relative error and average absolute error are used to compare the accuracies of these models. The results suggest that the proposed model is superior. As such, the newly developed approach achieves more precise predictions, which can be used to prevent the further deterioration of the water environment.
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institution Kabale University
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publishDate 2017-01-01
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spelling doaj-art-6a1d87f247aa4294917d27cd53ef8f2c2025-08-20T03:33:39ZengWileyAdvances in Mathematical Physics1687-91201687-91392017-01-01201710.1155/2017/90373589037358The Adaptive-Clustering and Error-Correction Method for Forecasting Cyanobacteria Blooms in Lakes and ReservoirsXiao-zhe Bai0Hui-yan Zhang1Xiao-yi Wang2Li Wang3Ji-ping Xu4Jia-bin Yu5School of Computer and Information Engineering, Beijing Technology and Business University, Beijing 100048, ChinaSchool of Computer and Information Engineering, Beijing Technology and Business University, Beijing 100048, ChinaSchool of Computer and Information Engineering, Beijing Technology and Business University, Beijing 100048, ChinaSchool of Computer and Information Engineering, Beijing Technology and Business University, Beijing 100048, ChinaSchool of Computer and Information Engineering, Beijing Technology and Business University, Beijing 100048, ChinaSchool of Computer and Information Engineering, Beijing Technology and Business University, Beijing 100048, ChinaGlobally, cyanobacteria blooms frequently occur, and effective prediction of cyanobacteria blooms in lakes and reservoirs could constitute an essential proactive strategy for water-resource protection. However, cyanobacteria blooms are very complicated because of the internal stochastic nature of the system evolution and the external uncertainty of the observation data. In this study, an adaptive-clustering algorithm is introduced to obtain some typical operating intervals. In addition, the number of nearest neighbors used for modeling was optimized by particle swarm optimization. Finally, a fuzzy linear regression method based on error-correction was used to revise the model dynamically near the operating point. We found that the combined method can characterize the evolutionary track of cyanobacteria blooms in lakes and reservoirs. The model constructed in this paper is compared to other cyanobacteria-bloom forecasting methods (e.g., phase space reconstruction and traditional-clustering linear regression), and, then, the average relative error and average absolute error are used to compare the accuracies of these models. The results suggest that the proposed model is superior. As such, the newly developed approach achieves more precise predictions, which can be used to prevent the further deterioration of the water environment.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2017/9037358
spellingShingle Xiao-zhe Bai
Hui-yan Zhang
Xiao-yi Wang
Li Wang
Ji-ping Xu
Jia-bin Yu
The Adaptive-Clustering and Error-Correction Method for Forecasting Cyanobacteria Blooms in Lakes and Reservoirs
Advances in Mathematical Physics
title The Adaptive-Clustering and Error-Correction Method for Forecasting Cyanobacteria Blooms in Lakes and Reservoirs
title_full The Adaptive-Clustering and Error-Correction Method for Forecasting Cyanobacteria Blooms in Lakes and Reservoirs
title_fullStr The Adaptive-Clustering and Error-Correction Method for Forecasting Cyanobacteria Blooms in Lakes and Reservoirs
title_full_unstemmed The Adaptive-Clustering and Error-Correction Method for Forecasting Cyanobacteria Blooms in Lakes and Reservoirs
title_short The Adaptive-Clustering and Error-Correction Method for Forecasting Cyanobacteria Blooms in Lakes and Reservoirs
title_sort adaptive clustering and error correction method for forecasting cyanobacteria blooms in lakes and reservoirs
url http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2017/9037358
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