Distribution Shifts of <i>Acanthaster solaris</i> Under Climate Change and the Impact on Coral Reef Habitats
Pacific crown-of-thorns starfish (<i>Acanthaster solaris</i>) outbreaks pose a significant threat to coral reef ecosystems, with climate change potentially exacerbating their distribution and impact. However, there remains only a small number of predictive studies on how climate change d...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2025-03-01
|
| Series: | Animals |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-2615/15/6/858 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1850205807823552512 |
|---|---|
| author | Shangke Su Jinquan Liu Bin Chen Wei Wang Jiaguang Xiao Yuan Li Jianguo Du Jianhua Kang Wenjia Hu Junpeng Zhang |
| author_facet | Shangke Su Jinquan Liu Bin Chen Wei Wang Jiaguang Xiao Yuan Li Jianguo Du Jianhua Kang Wenjia Hu Junpeng Zhang |
| author_sort | Shangke Su |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Pacific crown-of-thorns starfish (<i>Acanthaster solaris</i>) outbreaks pose a significant threat to coral reef ecosystems, with climate change potentially exacerbating their distribution and impact. However, there remains only a small number of predictive studies on how climate change drives changes in the distribution patterns of <i>A. solaris</i>, and relevant assessments of the impact of these changes on coral reef areas are lacking. To address this issue, this study investigated potential changes in the distribution of <i>A. solaris</i> under climate change and its impact on <i>Acropora</i> coral habitats. Using a novel two-step framework, we integrated both abiotic and biological (<i>Acropora</i> distribution) predictors into species distribution modeling to project future shifts in <i>A. solaris</i> habitats. We created the first reliable set of current and future global distribution maps for <i>A. solaris</i> using a comprehensive dataset and machine learning approach. The results showed significant distribution shifts under three climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5), with expanded ranges under all scenarios, and the greatest expansion occurring near 10° S. Asymmetry in the latitudinal shifts in habitat boundaries suggests that the Southern Hemisphere may face a more severe expansion of <i>A. solaris</i>. Regions previously unsuitable for <i>A. solaris</i>, such as parts of New Zealand, might experience new invasions. Additionally, our findings highlight the potential increase in predatory pressure on coral reefs under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, particularly in the Western Coral Triangle and Northeast Australian Shelf, where an overlap between <i>A. solaris</i> and <i>Acropora</i> habitats is significant. This study provides critical insights into the ecological dynamics of <i>A. solaris</i> in the context of climate change, and the results have important implications for coral reef management. These findings highlight the need for targeted conservation efforts and the development of mitigation strategies to protect coral reefs from the growing threat posed by <i>A. solaris</i>. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-698abe13a35c4f85b84ece1ef72fe875 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2076-2615 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Animals |
| spelling | doaj-art-698abe13a35c4f85b84ece1ef72fe8752025-08-20T02:11:00ZengMDPI AGAnimals2076-26152025-03-0115685810.3390/ani15060858Distribution Shifts of <i>Acanthaster solaris</i> Under Climate Change and the Impact on Coral Reef HabitatsShangke Su0Jinquan Liu1Bin Chen2Wei Wang3Jiaguang Xiao4Yuan Li5Jianguo Du6Jianhua Kang7Wenjia Hu8Junpeng Zhang9Key Laboratory of Marine Ecological Conservation and Restoration, Third Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Xiamen 361005, ChinaKey Laboratory of Marine Ecological Conservation and Restoration, Third Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Xiamen 361005, ChinaKey Laboratory of Marine Ecological Conservation and Restoration, Third Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Xiamen 361005, ChinaLaboratory of Marine Biodiversity Research, Third Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Xiamen 361005, ChinaLaboratory of Marine Biodiversity Research, Third Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Xiamen 361005, ChinaLaboratory of Marine Biodiversity Research, Third Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Xiamen 361005, ChinaKey Laboratory of Marine Ecological Conservation and Restoration, Third Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Xiamen 361005, ChinaKey Laboratory of Marine Ecological Conservation and Restoration, Third Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Xiamen 361005, ChinaKey Laboratory of Marine Ecological Conservation and Restoration, Third Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Xiamen 361005, ChinaOcean Dynamics Laboratory, Third Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Xiamen 361005, ChinaPacific crown-of-thorns starfish (<i>Acanthaster solaris</i>) outbreaks pose a significant threat to coral reef ecosystems, with climate change potentially exacerbating their distribution and impact. However, there remains only a small number of predictive studies on how climate change drives changes in the distribution patterns of <i>A. solaris</i>, and relevant assessments of the impact of these changes on coral reef areas are lacking. To address this issue, this study investigated potential changes in the distribution of <i>A. solaris</i> under climate change and its impact on <i>Acropora</i> coral habitats. Using a novel two-step framework, we integrated both abiotic and biological (<i>Acropora</i> distribution) predictors into species distribution modeling to project future shifts in <i>A. solaris</i> habitats. We created the first reliable set of current and future global distribution maps for <i>A. solaris</i> using a comprehensive dataset and machine learning approach. The results showed significant distribution shifts under three climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5), with expanded ranges under all scenarios, and the greatest expansion occurring near 10° S. Asymmetry in the latitudinal shifts in habitat boundaries suggests that the Southern Hemisphere may face a more severe expansion of <i>A. solaris</i>. Regions previously unsuitable for <i>A. solaris</i>, such as parts of New Zealand, might experience new invasions. Additionally, our findings highlight the potential increase in predatory pressure on coral reefs under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, particularly in the Western Coral Triangle and Northeast Australian Shelf, where an overlap between <i>A. solaris</i> and <i>Acropora</i> habitats is significant. This study provides critical insights into the ecological dynamics of <i>A. solaris</i> in the context of climate change, and the results have important implications for coral reef management. These findings highlight the need for targeted conservation efforts and the development of mitigation strategies to protect coral reefs from the growing threat posed by <i>A. solaris</i>.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-2615/15/6/858crown-of-thorns starfishclimate changecoral reefspecies distribution modeldistribution change |
| spellingShingle | Shangke Su Jinquan Liu Bin Chen Wei Wang Jiaguang Xiao Yuan Li Jianguo Du Jianhua Kang Wenjia Hu Junpeng Zhang Distribution Shifts of <i>Acanthaster solaris</i> Under Climate Change and the Impact on Coral Reef Habitats Animals crown-of-thorns starfish climate change coral reef species distribution model distribution change |
| title | Distribution Shifts of <i>Acanthaster solaris</i> Under Climate Change and the Impact on Coral Reef Habitats |
| title_full | Distribution Shifts of <i>Acanthaster solaris</i> Under Climate Change and the Impact on Coral Reef Habitats |
| title_fullStr | Distribution Shifts of <i>Acanthaster solaris</i> Under Climate Change and the Impact on Coral Reef Habitats |
| title_full_unstemmed | Distribution Shifts of <i>Acanthaster solaris</i> Under Climate Change and the Impact on Coral Reef Habitats |
| title_short | Distribution Shifts of <i>Acanthaster solaris</i> Under Climate Change and the Impact on Coral Reef Habitats |
| title_sort | distribution shifts of i acanthaster solaris i under climate change and the impact on coral reef habitats |
| topic | crown-of-thorns starfish climate change coral reef species distribution model distribution change |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-2615/15/6/858 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT shangkesu distributionshiftsofiacanthastersolarisiunderclimatechangeandtheimpactoncoralreefhabitats AT jinquanliu distributionshiftsofiacanthastersolarisiunderclimatechangeandtheimpactoncoralreefhabitats AT binchen distributionshiftsofiacanthastersolarisiunderclimatechangeandtheimpactoncoralreefhabitats AT weiwang distributionshiftsofiacanthastersolarisiunderclimatechangeandtheimpactoncoralreefhabitats AT jiaguangxiao distributionshiftsofiacanthastersolarisiunderclimatechangeandtheimpactoncoralreefhabitats AT yuanli distributionshiftsofiacanthastersolarisiunderclimatechangeandtheimpactoncoralreefhabitats AT jianguodu distributionshiftsofiacanthastersolarisiunderclimatechangeandtheimpactoncoralreefhabitats AT jianhuakang distributionshiftsofiacanthastersolarisiunderclimatechangeandtheimpactoncoralreefhabitats AT wenjiahu distributionshiftsofiacanthastersolarisiunderclimatechangeandtheimpactoncoralreefhabitats AT junpengzhang distributionshiftsofiacanthastersolarisiunderclimatechangeandtheimpactoncoralreefhabitats |