Nowcasting Solar Energetic Particle Events for Mars Missions
Abstract In addition to the omnipresent Galactic Cosmic Rays, sudden Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events present considerable health hazards for manned space missions. These events not only contribute to an increased long‐term cancer risk, but can, in extreme cases, cause acute radiation syndromes...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2025-04-01
|
| Series: | Space Weather |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2025SW004372 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1849682867114737664 |
|---|---|
| author | Jan Leo Löwe Salman Khaksarighiri Robert F. Wimmer‐Schweingruber Donald M. Hassler Bent Ehresmann Jingnan Guo Günther Reitz Thomas Berger Daniel Matthiä Cary Zeitlin Sven Löffler |
| author_facet | Jan Leo Löwe Salman Khaksarighiri Robert F. Wimmer‐Schweingruber Donald M. Hassler Bent Ehresmann Jingnan Guo Günther Reitz Thomas Berger Daniel Matthiä Cary Zeitlin Sven Löffler |
| author_sort | Jan Leo Löwe |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract In addition to the omnipresent Galactic Cosmic Rays, sudden Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events present considerable health hazards for manned space missions. These events not only contribute to an increased long‐term cancer risk, but can, in extreme cases, cause acute radiation syndromes. Forecasting their imminent occurrence could significantly reduce radiation exposure by warning astronauts to move to shelter. However, all currently available tools are primarily designed for the Earth or Earth‐Moon system, which limits their applicability to future Mars missions. To address this, we developed a nowcasting system for SEP events applicable in deep space and on the Martian surface, which serves as a reliable last‐resort backup when forecasts fail. The methodology of this system is based on dose rates measured by the Radiation Assessment Detector onboard the Mars Science Laboratory, which recorded 5 SEP events during the 7‐month flight to Mars and 17 since its landing on Mars on 6 August 2012. An SEP event is triggered, and an astronaut is warned as soon as dose rates exceed the omnipresent background level by at least 25%. This approach suggests that our system can provide astronauts with at least 30 min to avoid both peak radiation exposure and the majority of the cumulative dose from SEP events. Our nowcasting system is robust, easily implementable in real‐life scenarios, and achieves a near‐zero false alarm rate both in deep space and on the Martian surface. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-69865bcd1c0741bdb514b1117a3a4158 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 1542-7390 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-04-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Space Weather |
| spelling | doaj-art-69865bcd1c0741bdb514b1117a3a41582025-08-20T03:24:03ZengWileySpace Weather1542-73902025-04-01234n/an/a10.1029/2025SW004372Nowcasting Solar Energetic Particle Events for Mars MissionsJan Leo Löwe0Salman Khaksarighiri1Robert F. Wimmer‐Schweingruber2Donald M. Hassler3Bent Ehresmann4Jingnan Guo5Günther Reitz6Thomas Berger7Daniel Matthiä8Cary Zeitlin9Sven Löffler10Institute of Experimental and Applied Physics Christian‐Albrechts‐University Kiel GermanyInstitute of Experimental and Applied Physics Christian‐Albrechts‐University Kiel GermanyInstitute of Experimental and Applied Physics Christian‐Albrechts‐University Kiel GermanyPlanetary Science Division Southwest Research Institute Boulder CO USAPlanetary Science Division Southwest Research Institute Boulder CO USADeep Space Exploration Laboratory/School of Earth and Space Sciences University of Science and Technology of China Hefei PR ChinaGerman Aerospace Center (DLR) Institute of Aerospace Medicine Cologne GermanyGerman Aerospace Center (DLR) Institute of Aerospace Medicine Cologne GermanyGerman Aerospace Center (DLR) Institute of Aerospace Medicine Cologne GermanyLeidos Corporation Houston TX USAInstitute of Experimental and Applied Physics Christian‐Albrechts‐University Kiel GermanyAbstract In addition to the omnipresent Galactic Cosmic Rays, sudden Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events present considerable health hazards for manned space missions. These events not only contribute to an increased long‐term cancer risk, but can, in extreme cases, cause acute radiation syndromes. Forecasting their imminent occurrence could significantly reduce radiation exposure by warning astronauts to move to shelter. However, all currently available tools are primarily designed for the Earth or Earth‐Moon system, which limits their applicability to future Mars missions. To address this, we developed a nowcasting system for SEP events applicable in deep space and on the Martian surface, which serves as a reliable last‐resort backup when forecasts fail. The methodology of this system is based on dose rates measured by the Radiation Assessment Detector onboard the Mars Science Laboratory, which recorded 5 SEP events during the 7‐month flight to Mars and 17 since its landing on Mars on 6 August 2012. An SEP event is triggered, and an astronaut is warned as soon as dose rates exceed the omnipresent background level by at least 25%. This approach suggests that our system can provide astronauts with at least 30 min to avoid both peak radiation exposure and the majority of the cumulative dose from SEP events. Our nowcasting system is robust, easily implementable in real‐life scenarios, and achieves a near‐zero false alarm rate both in deep space and on the Martian surface.https://doi.org/10.1029/2025SW004372solar energetic particle eventsnowcastingMars Science LaboratoryMars missionforecastingRadiation Assessment Detector |
| spellingShingle | Jan Leo Löwe Salman Khaksarighiri Robert F. Wimmer‐Schweingruber Donald M. Hassler Bent Ehresmann Jingnan Guo Günther Reitz Thomas Berger Daniel Matthiä Cary Zeitlin Sven Löffler Nowcasting Solar Energetic Particle Events for Mars Missions Space Weather solar energetic particle events nowcasting Mars Science Laboratory Mars mission forecasting Radiation Assessment Detector |
| title | Nowcasting Solar Energetic Particle Events for Mars Missions |
| title_full | Nowcasting Solar Energetic Particle Events for Mars Missions |
| title_fullStr | Nowcasting Solar Energetic Particle Events for Mars Missions |
| title_full_unstemmed | Nowcasting Solar Energetic Particle Events for Mars Missions |
| title_short | Nowcasting Solar Energetic Particle Events for Mars Missions |
| title_sort | nowcasting solar energetic particle events for mars missions |
| topic | solar energetic particle events nowcasting Mars Science Laboratory Mars mission forecasting Radiation Assessment Detector |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2025SW004372 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT janleolowe nowcastingsolarenergeticparticleeventsformarsmissions AT salmankhaksarighiri nowcastingsolarenergeticparticleeventsformarsmissions AT robertfwimmerschweingruber nowcastingsolarenergeticparticleeventsformarsmissions AT donaldmhassler nowcastingsolarenergeticparticleeventsformarsmissions AT bentehresmann nowcastingsolarenergeticparticleeventsformarsmissions AT jingnanguo nowcastingsolarenergeticparticleeventsformarsmissions AT guntherreitz nowcastingsolarenergeticparticleeventsformarsmissions AT thomasberger nowcastingsolarenergeticparticleeventsformarsmissions AT danielmatthia nowcastingsolarenergeticparticleeventsformarsmissions AT caryzeitlin nowcastingsolarenergeticparticleeventsformarsmissions AT svenloffler nowcastingsolarenergeticparticleeventsformarsmissions |