A Simple Method for Predicting Intensity Change Using the Peak Time Lag Between Lightning and Wind in Tropical Cyclones
Abstract Using lightning data from the World‐Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) and tracking data for Tropical Cyclones (TCs) from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), the relationship between the peak time lag (Tlag) and the wind intensity change in severe and super typhoons was inve...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088872 |
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| author | Xiangzhen Kong Yang Zhao Zhenfeng Qiu Xinyi Tao Wenjuan Zhang |
| author_facet | Xiangzhen Kong Yang Zhao Zhenfeng Qiu Xinyi Tao Wenjuan Zhang |
| author_sort | Xiangzhen Kong |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Using lightning data from the World‐Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) and tracking data for Tropical Cyclones (TCs) from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), the relationship between the peak time lag (Tlag) and the wind intensity change in severe and super typhoons was investigated. The Tlag between the maximum peaks of the inner‐core lightning and the TC intensity ranged from −132 to 198 h, while that of the entire TC lightning ranged from −174 to 198 h. The median Tlag values for strengthening and weakening storms were 54 and −21 h, respectively, while those for the entire TCs were 59 and −64 h, respectively. Lightning Frequency Peaks (LFPs) occurred more often with Average Intensity Changes (AICs) than intense intensity changes. Boundary equations were established based on the previous wind intensity change versus Tlag, and Tlag was simplified as a potential forecasting parameter of TC intensity change. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-6901db4acce44646b4696c416e5ba6c7 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-6901db4acce44646b4696c416e5ba6c72025-08-20T01:55:33ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072021-01-01482n/an/a10.1029/2020GL088872A Simple Method for Predicting Intensity Change Using the Peak Time Lag Between Lightning and Wind in Tropical CyclonesXiangzhen Kong0Yang Zhao1Zhenfeng Qiu2Xinyi Tao3Wenjuan Zhang4Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing ChinaCollaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing ChinaCollaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing ChinaCollaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing ChinaState Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing ChinaAbstract Using lightning data from the World‐Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) and tracking data for Tropical Cyclones (TCs) from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), the relationship between the peak time lag (Tlag) and the wind intensity change in severe and super typhoons was investigated. The Tlag between the maximum peaks of the inner‐core lightning and the TC intensity ranged from −132 to 198 h, while that of the entire TC lightning ranged from −174 to 198 h. The median Tlag values for strengthening and weakening storms were 54 and −21 h, respectively, while those for the entire TCs were 59 and −64 h, respectively. Lightning Frequency Peaks (LFPs) occurred more often with Average Intensity Changes (AICs) than intense intensity changes. Boundary equations were established based on the previous wind intensity change versus Tlag, and Tlag was simplified as a potential forecasting parameter of TC intensity change.https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088872inner coreintensity changelightning frequency peaktime lagtropical cyclone |
| spellingShingle | Xiangzhen Kong Yang Zhao Zhenfeng Qiu Xinyi Tao Wenjuan Zhang A Simple Method for Predicting Intensity Change Using the Peak Time Lag Between Lightning and Wind in Tropical Cyclones Geophysical Research Letters inner core intensity change lightning frequency peak time lag tropical cyclone |
| title | A Simple Method for Predicting Intensity Change Using the Peak Time Lag Between Lightning and Wind in Tropical Cyclones |
| title_full | A Simple Method for Predicting Intensity Change Using the Peak Time Lag Between Lightning and Wind in Tropical Cyclones |
| title_fullStr | A Simple Method for Predicting Intensity Change Using the Peak Time Lag Between Lightning and Wind in Tropical Cyclones |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Simple Method for Predicting Intensity Change Using the Peak Time Lag Between Lightning and Wind in Tropical Cyclones |
| title_short | A Simple Method for Predicting Intensity Change Using the Peak Time Lag Between Lightning and Wind in Tropical Cyclones |
| title_sort | simple method for predicting intensity change using the peak time lag between lightning and wind in tropical cyclones |
| topic | inner core intensity change lightning frequency peak time lag tropical cyclone |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088872 |
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