The overlapping global distribution of dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever
Abstract Arboviruses transmitted mainly by Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti and Ae. albopictus, including dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses, and yellow fever virus in urban settings, pose an escalating global threat. Existing risk maps, often hampered by surveillance biases, may underestimate or misrep...
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Nature Portfolio
2025-04-01
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| Series: | Nature Communications |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-58609-5 |
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| author | Ahyoung Lim Freya M. Shearer Kara Sewalk David M. Pigott Joseph Clarke Azhar Ghouse Ciara Judge Hyolim Kang Jane P. Messina Moritz U. G. Kraemer Katy A. M. Gaythorpe William M. de Souza Elaine O. Nsoesie Michael Celone Nuno Faria Sadie J. Ryan Ingrid B. Rabe Diana P. Rojas Simon I. Hay John S. Brownstein Nick Golding Oliver J. Brady |
| author_facet | Ahyoung Lim Freya M. Shearer Kara Sewalk David M. Pigott Joseph Clarke Azhar Ghouse Ciara Judge Hyolim Kang Jane P. Messina Moritz U. G. Kraemer Katy A. M. Gaythorpe William M. de Souza Elaine O. Nsoesie Michael Celone Nuno Faria Sadie J. Ryan Ingrid B. Rabe Diana P. Rojas Simon I. Hay John S. Brownstein Nick Golding Oliver J. Brady |
| author_sort | Ahyoung Lim |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Arboviruses transmitted mainly by Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti and Ae. albopictus, including dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses, and yellow fever virus in urban settings, pose an escalating global threat. Existing risk maps, often hampered by surveillance biases, may underestimate or misrepresent the true distribution of these diseases and do not incorporate epidemiological similarities despite shared vector species. We address this by generating new global environmental suitability maps for Aedes-borne arboviruses using a multi-disease ecological niche model with a nested surveillance model fit to a dataset of over 21,000 occurrence points. This reveals a convergence in suitability around a common global distribution with recent spread of chikungunya and Zika closely aligning with areas suitable for dengue. We estimate that 5.66 (95% confidence interval 5.64-5.68) billion people live in areas suitable for dengue, chikungunya and Zika and 1.54 (1.53-1.54) billion people for yellow fever. We find large national and subnational differences in surveillance capabilities with higher income more accessible areas more likely to detect, diagnose and report viral diseases, which may have led to overestimation of risk in the United States and Europe. When combined with estimates of uncertainty, these suitability maps can be used by ministries of health to target limited surveillance and intervention resources in new strategies against these emerging threats. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-68ec7afe765b443ab964effa0184d845 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2041-1723 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-04-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nature Communications |
| spelling | doaj-art-68ec7afe765b443ab964effa0184d8452025-08-20T03:06:52ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232025-04-0116111310.1038/s41467-025-58609-5The overlapping global distribution of dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow feverAhyoung Lim0Freya M. Shearer1Kara Sewalk2David M. Pigott3Joseph Clarke4Azhar Ghouse5Ciara Judge6Hyolim Kang7Jane P. Messina8Moritz U. G. Kraemer9Katy A. M. Gaythorpe10William M. de Souza11Elaine O. Nsoesie12Michael Celone13Nuno Faria14Sadie J. Ryan15Ingrid B. Rabe16Diana P. Rojas17Simon I. Hay18John S. Brownstein19Nick Golding20Oliver J. Brady21Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Dynamics, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical MedicineInfectious Disease Dynamics Unit, Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of MelbourneBoston Children’s HospitalInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of WashingtonUniversity of CambridgeDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Dynamics, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical MedicineDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Dynamics, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical MedicineDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Dynamics, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical MedicineSchool of Geography and the Environment, University of OxfordDepartment of Biology, University of OxfordMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College LondonDepartment of Microbiology, Immunology and Molecular Genetics, University of Kentucky, College of MedicineDepartment of Global Health, School of Public Health, Boston UniversityInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of WashingtonVirus Genomic Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health, Imperial College, London, Imperial College LondonDepartment of Geography and the Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of FloridaDepartment of Epidemic and Pandemic Preparedness and Prevention, World Health OrganizationDepartment of Epidemic and Pandemic Preparedness and Prevention, World Health OrganizationInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of WashingtonDepartment of Pediatrics, Harvard Medical SchoolInfectious Disease Dynamics Unit, Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of MelbourneDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Dynamics, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical MedicineAbstract Arboviruses transmitted mainly by Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti and Ae. albopictus, including dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses, and yellow fever virus in urban settings, pose an escalating global threat. Existing risk maps, often hampered by surveillance biases, may underestimate or misrepresent the true distribution of these diseases and do not incorporate epidemiological similarities despite shared vector species. We address this by generating new global environmental suitability maps for Aedes-borne arboviruses using a multi-disease ecological niche model with a nested surveillance model fit to a dataset of over 21,000 occurrence points. This reveals a convergence in suitability around a common global distribution with recent spread of chikungunya and Zika closely aligning with areas suitable for dengue. We estimate that 5.66 (95% confidence interval 5.64-5.68) billion people live in areas suitable for dengue, chikungunya and Zika and 1.54 (1.53-1.54) billion people for yellow fever. We find large national and subnational differences in surveillance capabilities with higher income more accessible areas more likely to detect, diagnose and report viral diseases, which may have led to overestimation of risk in the United States and Europe. When combined with estimates of uncertainty, these suitability maps can be used by ministries of health to target limited surveillance and intervention resources in new strategies against these emerging threats.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-58609-5 |
| spellingShingle | Ahyoung Lim Freya M. Shearer Kara Sewalk David M. Pigott Joseph Clarke Azhar Ghouse Ciara Judge Hyolim Kang Jane P. Messina Moritz U. G. Kraemer Katy A. M. Gaythorpe William M. de Souza Elaine O. Nsoesie Michael Celone Nuno Faria Sadie J. Ryan Ingrid B. Rabe Diana P. Rojas Simon I. Hay John S. Brownstein Nick Golding Oliver J. Brady The overlapping global distribution of dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever Nature Communications |
| title | The overlapping global distribution of dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever |
| title_full | The overlapping global distribution of dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever |
| title_fullStr | The overlapping global distribution of dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever |
| title_full_unstemmed | The overlapping global distribution of dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever |
| title_short | The overlapping global distribution of dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever |
| title_sort | overlapping global distribution of dengue chikungunya zika and yellow fever |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-58609-5 |
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