Rift propagation signals the last act of the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf despite low basal melt rates

Rift propagation, rather than basal melt, drives the destabilization and disintegration of the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf. Since 2016, rifts have episodically advanced throughout the central ice-shelf area, with rapid propagation events occurring during austral spring. The ice shelf's speed has...

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Main Authors: Christian T. Wild, Samuel B. Kachuck, Adrian Luckman, Karen E. Alley, Meghan A. Sharp, Haylee Smith, Scott W. Tyler, Christopher Kratt, Tiago S. Dotto, Daniel Price, Keith W. Nicholls, Suzanne L. Bevan, Gabriela Collao-Barrios, Atsuhiro Muto, Martin Truffer, Ted A. Scambos, Karen J. Heywood, Erin C. Pettit, the TARSAN team
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Cambridge University Press 2024-01-01
Series:Journal of Glaciology
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Online Access:https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0022143024000649/type/journal_article
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author Christian T. Wild
Samuel B. Kachuck
Adrian Luckman
Karen E. Alley
Meghan A. Sharp
Haylee Smith
Scott W. Tyler
Christopher Kratt
Tiago S. Dotto
Daniel Price
Keith W. Nicholls
Suzanne L. Bevan
Gabriela Collao-Barrios
Atsuhiro Muto
Martin Truffer
Ted A. Scambos
Karen J. Heywood
Erin C. Pettit
the TARSAN team
author_facet Christian T. Wild
Samuel B. Kachuck
Adrian Luckman
Karen E. Alley
Meghan A. Sharp
Haylee Smith
Scott W. Tyler
Christopher Kratt
Tiago S. Dotto
Daniel Price
Keith W. Nicholls
Suzanne L. Bevan
Gabriela Collao-Barrios
Atsuhiro Muto
Martin Truffer
Ted A. Scambos
Karen J. Heywood
Erin C. Pettit
the TARSAN team
author_sort Christian T. Wild
collection DOAJ
description Rift propagation, rather than basal melt, drives the destabilization and disintegration of the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf. Since 2016, rifts have episodically advanced throughout the central ice-shelf area, with rapid propagation events occurring during austral spring. The ice shelf's speed has increased by ~70% during this period, transitioning from a rate of 1.65 m d−1 in 2019 to 2.85 m d−1 by early 2023 in the central area. The increase in longitudinal strain rates near the grounding zone has led to full-thickness rifts and melange-filled gaps since 2020. A recent sea-ice break out has accelerated retreat at the western calving front, effectively separating the ice shelf from what remained of its northwestern pinning point. Meanwhile, a distributed set of phase-sensitive radar measurements indicates that the basal melting rate is generally small, likely due to a widespread robust ocean stratification beneath the ice–ocean interface that suppresses basal melt despite the presence of substantial oceanic heat at depth. These observations in combination with damage modeling show that, while ocean forcing is responsible for triggering the current West Antarctic ice retreat, the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf is experiencing dynamic feedbacks over decadal timescales that are driving ice-shelf disintegration, now independent of basal melt.
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spelling doaj-art-68d34afed5b4438fae427031918533972025-01-16T21:48:51ZengCambridge University PressJournal of Glaciology0022-14301727-56522024-01-017010.1017/jog.2024.64Rift propagation signals the last act of the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf despite low basal melt ratesChristian T. Wild0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4586-1704Samuel B. Kachuck1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8708-8425Adrian Luckman2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9618-5905Karen E. Alley3https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0358-3806Meghan A. Sharp4https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9015-8199Haylee Smith5https://orcid.org/0009-0003-9976-3111Scott W. Tyler6https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0477-5351Christopher Kratt7https://orcid.org/0009-0003-9191-769XTiago S. Dotto8https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0565-6941Daniel Price9https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6003-0920Keith W. Nicholls10https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2188-4509Suzanne L. Bevan11https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2649-2982Gabriela Collao-Barrios12https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3186-3290Atsuhiro Muto13https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1722-2457Martin Truffer14https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8251-7043Ted A. Scambos15https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4268-6322Karen J. Heywood16https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9859-0026Erin C. Pettit17https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6765-9841the TARSAN teamCollege of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USAClimate and Space Sciences and Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USADepartment of Geography, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Swansea University, Swansea, UKCentre for Earth Observation Science, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, CanadaCollege of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USACollege of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USADepartment of Geological Sciences and Engineering, University of Nevada, Reno, NV, USADepartment of Geological Sciences and Engineering, University of Nevada, Reno, NV, USANational Oceanography Centre, Southampton, UKGateway Antarctica, School of Earth & Environment, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New ZealandBritish Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UKDepartment of Geography, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Swansea University, Swansea, UKNational Snow and Ice Data Center, CIRES, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USADepartment of Earth and Environmental Science, Temple University, Philadelphia, PA, USAGeophysical Institute and Department of Physics, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USAEarth Science and Observation Center, CIRES, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USACentre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UKCollege of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USARift propagation, rather than basal melt, drives the destabilization and disintegration of the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf. Since 2016, rifts have episodically advanced throughout the central ice-shelf area, with rapid propagation events occurring during austral spring. The ice shelf's speed has increased by ~70% during this period, transitioning from a rate of 1.65 m d−1 in 2019 to 2.85 m d−1 by early 2023 in the central area. The increase in longitudinal strain rates near the grounding zone has led to full-thickness rifts and melange-filled gaps since 2020. A recent sea-ice break out has accelerated retreat at the western calving front, effectively separating the ice shelf from what remained of its northwestern pinning point. Meanwhile, a distributed set of phase-sensitive radar measurements indicates that the basal melting rate is generally small, likely due to a widespread robust ocean stratification beneath the ice–ocean interface that suppresses basal melt despite the presence of substantial oceanic heat at depth. These observations in combination with damage modeling show that, while ocean forcing is responsible for triggering the current West Antarctic ice retreat, the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf is experiencing dynamic feedbacks over decadal timescales that are driving ice-shelf disintegration, now independent of basal melt.https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0022143024000649/type/journal_articleAntarctic glaciologycrevassesice/ocean interactionsice-shelf break-upmelt – basal
spellingShingle Christian T. Wild
Samuel B. Kachuck
Adrian Luckman
Karen E. Alley
Meghan A. Sharp
Haylee Smith
Scott W. Tyler
Christopher Kratt
Tiago S. Dotto
Daniel Price
Keith W. Nicholls
Suzanne L. Bevan
Gabriela Collao-Barrios
Atsuhiro Muto
Martin Truffer
Ted A. Scambos
Karen J. Heywood
Erin C. Pettit
the TARSAN team
Rift propagation signals the last act of the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf despite low basal melt rates
Journal of Glaciology
Antarctic glaciology
crevasses
ice/ocean interactions
ice-shelf break-up
melt – basal
title Rift propagation signals the last act of the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf despite low basal melt rates
title_full Rift propagation signals the last act of the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf despite low basal melt rates
title_fullStr Rift propagation signals the last act of the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf despite low basal melt rates
title_full_unstemmed Rift propagation signals the last act of the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf despite low basal melt rates
title_short Rift propagation signals the last act of the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf despite low basal melt rates
title_sort rift propagation signals the last act of the thwaites eastern ice shelf despite low basal melt rates
topic Antarctic glaciology
crevasses
ice/ocean interactions
ice-shelf break-up
melt – basal
url https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0022143024000649/type/journal_article
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