Vaccination strategies for Ebola in the democratic republic of Congo: the who-Ebola modeling collaboration
Objectives: Assess the effectiveness of ring vaccination in controlling an Ebola virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Methods: This analysis focuses on two areas of the Democratic Republic of Congo, Beni and Butembo/Katwa, which were affected during the 2018-2020 Ebola outbreak. To si...
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Elsevier
2025-04-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Infectious Diseases |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971225000037 |
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| author | Marco Ajelli Jean-Jacques Muyembe Alhassane Touré Abdourahamane Diallo Maria Litvinova Stefano Merler Sabué Mulangu Aminata Bagayoko Aissatou Bah Ibrahima Bah Aissatou Barry Fatoumata Barry Mohamed Chérif Doussou Condé Alpha A. Diallo Fatoumata Diallo Mory Diakité Kassié Doré Koundouno A. Mapan Thérèse Koundouno Patrice K. Onivogui Fassou Lamah Henry Maneno Alphonse Nomou Kourouma Sekouba Ismaila Sani Abdoulaye Soumah Mamadou M. Sy Pierre-Stéphane Gsell M. Elizabeth Halloran Ana Maria Henao-Restrepo Ibrahima Socé Fall Mike J. Ryan Peter Salama Alessandro Vespignani Ira M. Longini, Jr. |
| author_facet | Marco Ajelli Jean-Jacques Muyembe Alhassane Touré Abdourahamane Diallo Maria Litvinova Stefano Merler Sabué Mulangu Aminata Bagayoko Aissatou Bah Ibrahima Bah Aissatou Barry Fatoumata Barry Mohamed Chérif Doussou Condé Alpha A. Diallo Fatoumata Diallo Mory Diakité Kassié Doré Koundouno A. Mapan Thérèse Koundouno Patrice K. Onivogui Fassou Lamah Henry Maneno Alphonse Nomou Kourouma Sekouba Ismaila Sani Abdoulaye Soumah Mamadou M. Sy Pierre-Stéphane Gsell M. Elizabeth Halloran Ana Maria Henao-Restrepo Ibrahima Socé Fall Mike J. Ryan Peter Salama Alessandro Vespignani Ira M. Longini, Jr. |
| author_sort | Marco Ajelli |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Objectives: Assess the effectiveness of ring vaccination in controlling an Ebola virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Methods: This analysis focuses on two areas of the Democratic Republic of Congo, Beni and Butembo/Katwa, which were affected during the 2018-2020 Ebola outbreak. To simulate Ebola virus transmission, we used a spatially explicit agent-based model with households, health care facilities, and Ebola treatment units. Model parameters were calibrated using data collected under the ring-vaccination expanded-access protocol implemented during the outbreak. The model was used to estimate the impact of the deployed ring vaccination strategy, compared to what would have happened if there had been no ring vaccination. The impact of alternative vaccination strategies (mass vaccination, targeted geographic vaccination, and ring-plus) was evaluated as well. Results: Compared to a hypothetical scenario where vaccination was not implemented, ring vaccination was estimated to have averted 54.3% (SD, 32.5%) and 62.7% (SD, 23.2%) of potential cases in Beni and Butembo/Katwa, respectively. Under ring vaccination, the average number of averted cases per 1000 vaccine doses administered was 15.1 (SD, 16.8) and 27.8 (SD, 22.9), in Beni and Butembo/Katwa, respectively. In terms of number of averted cases per vaccine dose, ring vaccination was estimated to be more efficient than any of the other evaluated vaccination strategies. Conclusion: Despite some level of social instability, ring vaccination with the rVSV-ZEBOV vaccine was highly effective during the 2018-2020 Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo. As compared to alternative vaccination strategies, ring vaccination was estimated to be the most efficient. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-688974327c5a4f6abed43a92e9ca04a6 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1201-9712 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-04-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal of Infectious Diseases |
| spelling | doaj-art-688974327c5a4f6abed43a92e9ca04a62025-01-29T05:00:20ZengElsevierInternational Journal of Infectious Diseases1201-97122025-04-01153107779Vaccination strategies for Ebola in the democratic republic of Congo: the who-Ebola modeling collaborationMarco Ajelli0Jean-Jacques Muyembe1Alhassane Touré2Abdourahamane Diallo3Maria Litvinova4Stefano Merler5Sabué Mulangu6Aminata Bagayoko7Aissatou Bah8Ibrahima Bah9Aissatou Barry10Fatoumata Barry11Mohamed Chérif12Doussou Condé13Alpha A. Diallo14Fatoumata Diallo15Mory Diakité16Kassié Doré17Koundouno A. Mapan18Thérèse Koundouno19Patrice K. Onivogui20Fassou Lamah21Henry Maneno22Alphonse Nomou23Kourouma Sekouba24Ismaila Sani25Abdoulaye Soumah26Mamadou M. Sy27Pierre-Stéphane Gsell28M. Elizabeth Halloran29Ana Maria Henao-Restrepo30Ibrahima Socé Fall31Mike J. Ryan32Peter Salama33Alessandro Vespignani34Ira M. Longini, Jr.35Laboratory for Computational Epidemiology and Public Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, Indiana, USAInstitut National pour la Recherche Biomedicale, Democratic Republic of the CongoHealth Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, SwitzerlandHealth Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, SwitzerlandDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, Indiana, USACenter for Health Emergencies, Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, ItalyHealth Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, SwitzerlandHealth Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, SwitzerlandHealth Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, SwitzerlandHealth Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, SwitzerlandHealth Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, SwitzerlandHealth Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, SwitzerlandHealth Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, SwitzerlandHealth Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, SwitzerlandHealth Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, SwitzerlandHealth Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, SwitzerlandHealth Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, SwitzerlandHealth Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, SwitzerlandHealth Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, SwitzerlandHealth Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, SwitzerlandHealth Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, SwitzerlandHealth Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, SwitzerlandHealth Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, SwitzerlandHealth Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, SwitzerlandHealth Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, SwitzerlandHealth Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, SwitzerlandHealth Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, SwitzerlandHealth Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, SwitzerlandHealth Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, SwitzerlandBiostatistics, Bioinformatics and Epidemiology Program, Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center and Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USAHealth Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, SwitzerlandHealth Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, SwitzerlandHealth Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, SwitzerlandHealth Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, SwitzerlandLaboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts, USADepartment of Biostatistics, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA; Corresponding author.Objectives: Assess the effectiveness of ring vaccination in controlling an Ebola virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Methods: This analysis focuses on two areas of the Democratic Republic of Congo, Beni and Butembo/Katwa, which were affected during the 2018-2020 Ebola outbreak. To simulate Ebola virus transmission, we used a spatially explicit agent-based model with households, health care facilities, and Ebola treatment units. Model parameters were calibrated using data collected under the ring-vaccination expanded-access protocol implemented during the outbreak. The model was used to estimate the impact of the deployed ring vaccination strategy, compared to what would have happened if there had been no ring vaccination. The impact of alternative vaccination strategies (mass vaccination, targeted geographic vaccination, and ring-plus) was evaluated as well. Results: Compared to a hypothetical scenario where vaccination was not implemented, ring vaccination was estimated to have averted 54.3% (SD, 32.5%) and 62.7% (SD, 23.2%) of potential cases in Beni and Butembo/Katwa, respectively. Under ring vaccination, the average number of averted cases per 1000 vaccine doses administered was 15.1 (SD, 16.8) and 27.8 (SD, 22.9), in Beni and Butembo/Katwa, respectively. In terms of number of averted cases per vaccine dose, ring vaccination was estimated to be more efficient than any of the other evaluated vaccination strategies. Conclusion: Despite some level of social instability, ring vaccination with the rVSV-ZEBOV vaccine was highly effective during the 2018-2020 Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo. As compared to alternative vaccination strategies, ring vaccination was estimated to be the most efficient.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971225000037Ring vaccinationEffectivenessEVDAgent-based model |
| spellingShingle | Marco Ajelli Jean-Jacques Muyembe Alhassane Touré Abdourahamane Diallo Maria Litvinova Stefano Merler Sabué Mulangu Aminata Bagayoko Aissatou Bah Ibrahima Bah Aissatou Barry Fatoumata Barry Mohamed Chérif Doussou Condé Alpha A. Diallo Fatoumata Diallo Mory Diakité Kassié Doré Koundouno A. Mapan Thérèse Koundouno Patrice K. Onivogui Fassou Lamah Henry Maneno Alphonse Nomou Kourouma Sekouba Ismaila Sani Abdoulaye Soumah Mamadou M. Sy Pierre-Stéphane Gsell M. Elizabeth Halloran Ana Maria Henao-Restrepo Ibrahima Socé Fall Mike J. Ryan Peter Salama Alessandro Vespignani Ira M. Longini, Jr. Vaccination strategies for Ebola in the democratic republic of Congo: the who-Ebola modeling collaboration International Journal of Infectious Diseases Ring vaccination Effectiveness EVD Agent-based model |
| title | Vaccination strategies for Ebola in the democratic republic of Congo: the who-Ebola modeling collaboration |
| title_full | Vaccination strategies for Ebola in the democratic republic of Congo: the who-Ebola modeling collaboration |
| title_fullStr | Vaccination strategies for Ebola in the democratic republic of Congo: the who-Ebola modeling collaboration |
| title_full_unstemmed | Vaccination strategies for Ebola in the democratic republic of Congo: the who-Ebola modeling collaboration |
| title_short | Vaccination strategies for Ebola in the democratic republic of Congo: the who-Ebola modeling collaboration |
| title_sort | vaccination strategies for ebola in the democratic republic of congo the who ebola modeling collaboration |
| topic | Ring vaccination Effectiveness EVD Agent-based model |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971225000037 |
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