Economic Policy Uncertainty and ASEAN-6 Exchange Rates: A Long-Run Panel ARDL Analysis
This study examines the effect of U.S. and global Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) on the exchange rates of ASEAN-6 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam) using balanced monthly panel data from January 2010 to December 2024. Employing a Panel Autoregressive Dist...
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Program Studi Keuangan dan Perbankan, Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis, Universitas Komputer Indonesia
2025-06-01
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| Series: | Jurnal Ilmu Keuangan dan Perbankan |
| Online Access: | https://ojs.unikom.ac.id/index.php/jika/article/view/16229 |
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| author | Aris Munandar |
| author_facet | Aris Munandar |
| author_sort | Aris Munandar |
| collection | DOAJ |
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This study examines the effect of U.S. and global Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) on the exchange rates of ASEAN-6 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam) using balanced monthly panel data from January 2010 to December 2024. Employing a Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model estimated using the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator, the empirical findings demonstrate that heightened U.S. and global EPU induce long-run appreciation of ASEAN-6 currencies. Consequently, the research underscores the necessity for ASEAN-6 central banks to proactively monitor U.S. and global EPU trends and adjust monetary or foreign exchange operations to mitigate export competitiveness erosion and inflationary pressures, while governments should support exporters with diversification strategies to maintain competitiveness amidst sustained currency appreciation driven by external uncertainty.
Keywords: Economic Policy Uncertainty; Exchange Rates; ASEAN-6; Currency Appreciation; Panel ARDL
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| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-682987754c5c4c7b89a61046cdba4df4 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2089-2845 2655-9234 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Program Studi Keuangan dan Perbankan, Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis, Universitas Komputer Indonesia |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Jurnal Ilmu Keuangan dan Perbankan |
| spelling | doaj-art-682987754c5c4c7b89a61046cdba4df42025-08-20T03:10:58ZengProgram Studi Keuangan dan Perbankan, Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis, Universitas Komputer IndonesiaJurnal Ilmu Keuangan dan Perbankan2089-28452655-92342025-06-0114210.34010/jika.v14i2.16229Economic Policy Uncertainty and ASEAN-6 Exchange Rates: A Long-Run Panel ARDL AnalysisAris Munandar0Departement of Economics and Development Studies, Faculty of Economics and Busines, Universitas Diponegoro This study examines the effect of U.S. and global Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) on the exchange rates of ASEAN-6 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam) using balanced monthly panel data from January 2010 to December 2024. Employing a Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model estimated using the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator, the empirical findings demonstrate that heightened U.S. and global EPU induce long-run appreciation of ASEAN-6 currencies. Consequently, the research underscores the necessity for ASEAN-6 central banks to proactively monitor U.S. and global EPU trends and adjust monetary or foreign exchange operations to mitigate export competitiveness erosion and inflationary pressures, while governments should support exporters with diversification strategies to maintain competitiveness amidst sustained currency appreciation driven by external uncertainty. Keywords: Economic Policy Uncertainty; Exchange Rates; ASEAN-6; Currency Appreciation; Panel ARDL https://ojs.unikom.ac.id/index.php/jika/article/view/16229 |
| spellingShingle | Aris Munandar Economic Policy Uncertainty and ASEAN-6 Exchange Rates: A Long-Run Panel ARDL Analysis Jurnal Ilmu Keuangan dan Perbankan |
| title | Economic Policy Uncertainty and ASEAN-6 Exchange Rates: A Long-Run Panel ARDL Analysis |
| title_full | Economic Policy Uncertainty and ASEAN-6 Exchange Rates: A Long-Run Panel ARDL Analysis |
| title_fullStr | Economic Policy Uncertainty and ASEAN-6 Exchange Rates: A Long-Run Panel ARDL Analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Economic Policy Uncertainty and ASEAN-6 Exchange Rates: A Long-Run Panel ARDL Analysis |
| title_short | Economic Policy Uncertainty and ASEAN-6 Exchange Rates: A Long-Run Panel ARDL Analysis |
| title_sort | economic policy uncertainty and asean 6 exchange rates a long run panel ardl analysis |
| url | https://ojs.unikom.ac.id/index.php/jika/article/view/16229 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT arismunandar economicpolicyuncertaintyandasean6exchangeratesalongrunpanelardlanalysis |