ARIMA based forecasting of solar and hydro energy consumption with implications for grid stability and renewable policy
Abstract The global energy market is significant in establishing economic activities and policy decisions, and hence, Accurate forecasting of renewable energy consumption is critical for optimizing grid management and achieving decarbonization targets. This study develops a seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) m...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Springer
2025-07-01
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| Series: | Discover Sustainability |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-025-01536-8 |
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| author | Chandra Prakash Bijesh Dhyani Anand chauhan Anu Sayal |
| author_facet | Chandra Prakash Bijesh Dhyani Anand chauhan Anu Sayal |
| author_sort | Chandra Prakash |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The global energy market is significant in establishing economic activities and policy decisions, and hence, Accurate forecasting of renewable energy consumption is critical for optimizing grid management and achieving decarbonization targets. This study develops a seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) model to predict solar and hydro energy consumption across 140 countries (1965–2023), leveraging hyperparameter tuning (p, d, q) = (2, 1, 2) for solar and (1, 0, 1) for hydro energy. RMSE and R² scores are used to model evaluation metrics for validity of the predictions, our model achieves high accuracy (RMSE: 3.45 solar, 4.12 hydro; R²: 0.87 solar, 0.81 hydro) and reveals divergent trends: hydro consumption remains stable, while solar adoption fluctuates with policy and market shifts. The results provide actionable insights for energy planners to mitigate intermittency challenges and align infrastructure investments with regional renewable potential. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-681fb52298264705a4433bcc3beff909 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2662-9984 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | Springer |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Discover Sustainability |
| spelling | doaj-art-681fb52298264705a4433bcc3beff9092025-08-20T04:01:47ZengSpringerDiscover Sustainability2662-99842025-07-016112810.1007/s43621-025-01536-8ARIMA based forecasting of solar and hydro energy consumption with implications for grid stability and renewable policyChandra Prakash0Bijesh Dhyani1Anand chauhan2Anu Sayal3Department of Management Studies, Graphic Era (Deemed to be University)Department of Management Studies, Graphic Era (Deemed to be University)Department of Allied science (Mathematics), Graphic Era (Deemed to be University)School of Accounting and Finance, Faculty of Business and Law, Taylor’s UniversityAbstract The global energy market is significant in establishing economic activities and policy decisions, and hence, Accurate forecasting of renewable energy consumption is critical for optimizing grid management and achieving decarbonization targets. This study develops a seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) model to predict solar and hydro energy consumption across 140 countries (1965–2023), leveraging hyperparameter tuning (p, d, q) = (2, 1, 2) for solar and (1, 0, 1) for hydro energy. RMSE and R² scores are used to model evaluation metrics for validity of the predictions, our model achieves high accuracy (RMSE: 3.45 solar, 4.12 hydro; R²: 0.87 solar, 0.81 hydro) and reveals divergent trends: hydro consumption remains stable, while solar adoption fluctuates with policy and market shifts. The results provide actionable insights for energy planners to mitigate intermittency challenges and align infrastructure investments with regional renewable potential.https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-025-01536-8Global energyRenewable energyARIMATime series analysisACF and PACF |
| spellingShingle | Chandra Prakash Bijesh Dhyani Anand chauhan Anu Sayal ARIMA based forecasting of solar and hydro energy consumption with implications for grid stability and renewable policy Discover Sustainability Global energy Renewable energy ARIMA Time series analysis ACF and PACF |
| title | ARIMA based forecasting of solar and hydro energy consumption with implications for grid stability and renewable policy |
| title_full | ARIMA based forecasting of solar and hydro energy consumption with implications for grid stability and renewable policy |
| title_fullStr | ARIMA based forecasting of solar and hydro energy consumption with implications for grid stability and renewable policy |
| title_full_unstemmed | ARIMA based forecasting of solar and hydro energy consumption with implications for grid stability and renewable policy |
| title_short | ARIMA based forecasting of solar and hydro energy consumption with implications for grid stability and renewable policy |
| title_sort | arima based forecasting of solar and hydro energy consumption with implications for grid stability and renewable policy |
| topic | Global energy Renewable energy ARIMA Time series analysis ACF and PACF |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-025-01536-8 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT chandraprakash arimabasedforecastingofsolarandhydroenergyconsumptionwithimplicationsforgridstabilityandrenewablepolicy AT bijeshdhyani arimabasedforecastingofsolarandhydroenergyconsumptionwithimplicationsforgridstabilityandrenewablepolicy AT anandchauhan arimabasedforecastingofsolarandhydroenergyconsumptionwithimplicationsforgridstabilityandrenewablepolicy AT anusayal arimabasedforecastingofsolarandhydroenergyconsumptionwithimplicationsforgridstabilityandrenewablepolicy |