Global trends and age-period-cohort effects of chronic respiratory disease mortality attributed to industrial gaseous pollutants from 1990 to 2021
Abstract The increasing concern over chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs) caused by industrial pollution from particulate matter, gases, and fumes (PMGF) highlights the critical need for a comprehensive understanding of its spatiotemporal trends to mitigate work-related respiratory disorders effectiv...
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2025-04-01
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| author | Yongjun Zhou Hanpeng Lai Chuanqin Xu |
| author_facet | Yongjun Zhou Hanpeng Lai Chuanqin Xu |
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| description | Abstract The increasing concern over chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs) caused by industrial pollution from particulate matter, gases, and fumes (PMGF) highlights the critical need for a comprehensive understanding of its spatiotemporal trends to mitigate work-related respiratory disorders effectively. Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 were extracted to analyze the mortality of occupational PMGF-attributed CRD. The joinpoint regression model was employed to illustrate its trends in age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) from 1990 to 2021, facilitating the calculation of average annual percentage changes (AAPCs). The age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to isolate and quantify the contributions of age, period, and cohort effects to the observed temporal trends in mortality rates. From 1990 to 2021, the ASMR of PMGF attributed-CRD decreased from 21.74 (13.34, 30.11) to 12.84 (7.80, 18.20), with an AAPC of -1.69 (-1.82, -1.56). A sharper negative AAPC was detected in females, pneumoconiosis cases, middle SDI region, and Southeast Asia, East Asia & Oceania. In addition, some positive AAPCs appeared in low-middle SDI, South Asia, and high-income nations for females. Although the Western Pacific witnessed the steepest ASMR declines, a rising ASMR was noted in Nordic and American female COPD patients, with increasing pneumoconiosis ASMR in the Middle East and North Africa. The total age-specific mortality increased, with a decrease observed in both period and cohort effect, more pronounced among females. COPD mortality exhibited a steeper decline than pneumoconiosis in the period and cohort RR, but not for females. The low-middle SDI region and South Asia led in age-specific CRD mortality, whereas the period and cohort RR experienced the largest reduction in the high-middle SDI region and Southeast Asia, East Asia & Oceania. However, the period and cohort RR showed the weakest attenuation in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Over the past 32 years, progress has been made in managing industrial PMGF pollution-related CRD; however, challenges persist, particularly among sub-Saharan Africans, South Asian women, pneumoconiosis cases in the Middle East and North Africa, and female COPD patients in high-income nations. |
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| spelling | doaj-art-67cfacddae714985a2e83f6b97be54ee2025-08-20T02:11:46ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-04-0115111110.1038/s41598-025-90406-4Global trends and age-period-cohort effects of chronic respiratory disease mortality attributed to industrial gaseous pollutants from 1990 to 2021Yongjun Zhou0Hanpeng Lai1Chuanqin Xu2Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Jianhu Clinical Medical College of Yangzhou UniversityDepartment of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Yangzhou UniversityDepartment of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Huai’an Second People’s HospitalAbstract The increasing concern over chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs) caused by industrial pollution from particulate matter, gases, and fumes (PMGF) highlights the critical need for a comprehensive understanding of its spatiotemporal trends to mitigate work-related respiratory disorders effectively. Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 were extracted to analyze the mortality of occupational PMGF-attributed CRD. The joinpoint regression model was employed to illustrate its trends in age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) from 1990 to 2021, facilitating the calculation of average annual percentage changes (AAPCs). The age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to isolate and quantify the contributions of age, period, and cohort effects to the observed temporal trends in mortality rates. From 1990 to 2021, the ASMR of PMGF attributed-CRD decreased from 21.74 (13.34, 30.11) to 12.84 (7.80, 18.20), with an AAPC of -1.69 (-1.82, -1.56). A sharper negative AAPC was detected in females, pneumoconiosis cases, middle SDI region, and Southeast Asia, East Asia & Oceania. In addition, some positive AAPCs appeared in low-middle SDI, South Asia, and high-income nations for females. Although the Western Pacific witnessed the steepest ASMR declines, a rising ASMR was noted in Nordic and American female COPD patients, with increasing pneumoconiosis ASMR in the Middle East and North Africa. The total age-specific mortality increased, with a decrease observed in both period and cohort effect, more pronounced among females. COPD mortality exhibited a steeper decline than pneumoconiosis in the period and cohort RR, but not for females. The low-middle SDI region and South Asia led in age-specific CRD mortality, whereas the period and cohort RR experienced the largest reduction in the high-middle SDI region and Southeast Asia, East Asia & Oceania. However, the period and cohort RR showed the weakest attenuation in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Over the past 32 years, progress has been made in managing industrial PMGF pollution-related CRD; however, challenges persist, particularly among sub-Saharan Africans, South Asian women, pneumoconiosis cases in the Middle East and North Africa, and female COPD patients in high-income nations.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-90406-4Global burden of Disease (GBD)Occupational particulate matter, gases, and fumes (PMGF)Chronic respiratory disease (CRD)Age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR)Age-period-cohort (APC) effect |
| spellingShingle | Yongjun Zhou Hanpeng Lai Chuanqin Xu Global trends and age-period-cohort effects of chronic respiratory disease mortality attributed to industrial gaseous pollutants from 1990 to 2021 Scientific Reports Global burden of Disease (GBD) Occupational particulate matter, gases, and fumes (PMGF) Chronic respiratory disease (CRD) Age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) Age-period-cohort (APC) effect |
| title | Global trends and age-period-cohort effects of chronic respiratory disease mortality attributed to industrial gaseous pollutants from 1990 to 2021 |
| title_full | Global trends and age-period-cohort effects of chronic respiratory disease mortality attributed to industrial gaseous pollutants from 1990 to 2021 |
| title_fullStr | Global trends and age-period-cohort effects of chronic respiratory disease mortality attributed to industrial gaseous pollutants from 1990 to 2021 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global trends and age-period-cohort effects of chronic respiratory disease mortality attributed to industrial gaseous pollutants from 1990 to 2021 |
| title_short | Global trends and age-period-cohort effects of chronic respiratory disease mortality attributed to industrial gaseous pollutants from 1990 to 2021 |
| title_sort | global trends and age period cohort effects of chronic respiratory disease mortality attributed to industrial gaseous pollutants from 1990 to 2021 |
| topic | Global burden of Disease (GBD) Occupational particulate matter, gases, and fumes (PMGF) Chronic respiratory disease (CRD) Age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) Age-period-cohort (APC) effect |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-90406-4 |
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