An Intelligent Method for Day-Ahead Regional Load Demand Forecasting via Machine-Learning Analysis of Energy Consumption Patterns Across Daily, Weekly, and Annual Scales

An Intelligent Method for Day-Ahead Regional Load Demand Forecasting via Machine-Learning Analysis of Energy Consumption Patterns Across Daily, Weekly, and Annual Scales

Electric power load forecasting is essential for the efficient operation and strategic planning of utilities. Decisions regarding the electric market, power generation, load management, and infrastructure development all rely on accurate load predictions. This work presents a novel methodology for d...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Monica Borunda, Arturo Ortega Vega, Raul Garduno, Luis Conde, Manuel Adam Medina, Jeannete Ramírez Aparicio, Lorena Magallón Cacho, O. A. Jaramillo
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2025-04-01
Series:Applied Sciences
Subjects:
day-ahead forecasting
LSTM NN
hourly electrical load forecasting
similar days
clustering
K-means
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/15/9/4717
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Summary:Electric power load forecasting is essential for the efficient operation and strategic planning of utilities. Decisions regarding the electric market, power generation, load management, and infrastructure development all rely on accurate load predictions. This work presents a novel methodology for day-ahead load forecasting. The approach employs a long short-term memory neural network (LSTM NN) trained on representative load and meteorological data from the region. Before training, the load dataset is grouped by its statistical seasonality through K-means clustering analysis. Clustering load demand, along with similar-day data management, enables more focused training of the LSTM network on uniform data subsets, enhancing the model’s ability to capture temporal patterns and reducing the complexity associated with high variability in demand data. A case study using hourly load demand time-series data provided by the Centro Nacional de Control de Energía (CENACE) is analyzed, and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is calculated, showing lower MAPE than traditional methods. This hybrid approach demonstrates the potential of integrating clustering techniques with neural networks and representative meteorological data from the region to achieve more reliable and accurate regional day-ahead load forecasting.
ISSN:2076-3417

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