Modeling Chickenpox Dynamics with a Discrete Time Bayesian Stochastic Compartmental Model
We present a Bayesian stochastic susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model in discrete time to understand chickenpox transmission in the Valencian Community, Spain. During the last decades, different strategies have been introduced in the routine immunization program in order to reduce the impa...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2018-01-01
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| Series: | Complexity |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2018/3060368 |
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| author | A. Corberán-Vallet F. J. Santonja M. Jornet-Sanz R.-J. Villanueva |
| author_facet | A. Corberán-Vallet F. J. Santonja M. Jornet-Sanz R.-J. Villanueva |
| author_sort | A. Corberán-Vallet |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We present a Bayesian stochastic susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model in discrete time to understand chickenpox transmission in the Valencian Community, Spain. During the last decades, different strategies have been introduced in the routine immunization program in order to reduce the impact of this disease, which remains a public health’s great concern. Under this scenario, a model capable of explaining closely the dynamics of chickenpox under the different vaccination strategies is of utter importance to assess their effectiveness. The proposed model takes into account both heterogeneous mixing of individuals in the population and the inherent stochasticity in the transmission of the disease. As shown in a comparative study, these assumptions are fundamental to describe properly the evolution of the disease. The Bayesian analysis of the model allows us to calculate the posterior distribution of the model parameters and the posterior predictive distribution of chickenpox incidence, which facilitates the computation of point forecasts and prediction intervals. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-67ad3cd03dfa4a0aa5ae16fa5247e58a |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1076-2787 1099-0526 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2018-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Complexity |
| spelling | doaj-art-67ad3cd03dfa4a0aa5ae16fa5247e58a2025-08-20T02:23:49ZengWileyComplexity1076-27871099-05262018-01-01201810.1155/2018/30603683060368Modeling Chickenpox Dynamics with a Discrete Time Bayesian Stochastic Compartmental ModelA. Corberán-Vallet0F. J. Santonja1M. Jornet-Sanz2R.-J. Villanueva3Department of Statistics and Operational Research, Universitat de València, Valencia, SpainDepartment of Statistics and Operational Research, Universitat de València, Valencia, SpainDepartment of Statistics and Operational Research, Universitat de València, Valencia, SpainInstitute for Multidisciplinary Mathematics, Universitat Politècnica de València, Valencia, SpainWe present a Bayesian stochastic susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model in discrete time to understand chickenpox transmission in the Valencian Community, Spain. During the last decades, different strategies have been introduced in the routine immunization program in order to reduce the impact of this disease, which remains a public health’s great concern. Under this scenario, a model capable of explaining closely the dynamics of chickenpox under the different vaccination strategies is of utter importance to assess their effectiveness. The proposed model takes into account both heterogeneous mixing of individuals in the population and the inherent stochasticity in the transmission of the disease. As shown in a comparative study, these assumptions are fundamental to describe properly the evolution of the disease. The Bayesian analysis of the model allows us to calculate the posterior distribution of the model parameters and the posterior predictive distribution of chickenpox incidence, which facilitates the computation of point forecasts and prediction intervals.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2018/3060368 |
| spellingShingle | A. Corberán-Vallet F. J. Santonja M. Jornet-Sanz R.-J. Villanueva Modeling Chickenpox Dynamics with a Discrete Time Bayesian Stochastic Compartmental Model Complexity |
| title | Modeling Chickenpox Dynamics with a Discrete Time Bayesian Stochastic Compartmental Model |
| title_full | Modeling Chickenpox Dynamics with a Discrete Time Bayesian Stochastic Compartmental Model |
| title_fullStr | Modeling Chickenpox Dynamics with a Discrete Time Bayesian Stochastic Compartmental Model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling Chickenpox Dynamics with a Discrete Time Bayesian Stochastic Compartmental Model |
| title_short | Modeling Chickenpox Dynamics with a Discrete Time Bayesian Stochastic Compartmental Model |
| title_sort | modeling chickenpox dynamics with a discrete time bayesian stochastic compartmental model |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2018/3060368 |
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