Asthma prevalence and risk factors in Poonch and Rajouri districts, India: an epidemiological and geospatial analysis
Abstract Asthma is a significant global health issue, especially in high-altitude areas where unique environmental conditions and socioeconomic disparities may elevate disease risk and severity. This study examines the prevalence and determinants of asthma among the Gujjar and Bakarwal tribes living...
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Nature Portfolio
2025-07-01
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| author | Arshad Ahmed Kheraj Jorge Rocha Alireza Mohammadi |
| author_facet | Arshad Ahmed Kheraj Jorge Rocha Alireza Mohammadi |
| author_sort | Arshad Ahmed |
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| description | Abstract Asthma is a significant global health issue, especially in high-altitude areas where unique environmental conditions and socioeconomic disparities may elevate disease risk and severity. This study examines the prevalence and determinants of asthma among the Gujjar and Bakarwal tribes living in the high-altitude regions of the western Himalayas, providing insights into the influence of altitude, socioeconomic factors, and lifestyle on asthma risk. We conducted a cross-sectional survey across 816 households in 50 villages in Poonch and Rajouri districts, utilizing a stratified random sampling approach to ensure a representative sample. Villages were categorized by altitude and population density. Geographic Information System (GIS) tools were used to map asthma prevalence using inverse distance weighting (IDW) and Natural Breaks classification to identify high-risk zones. To determine asthma risk factors, we applied a binary logistic regression model (BLRM), with model fit assessed via pseudo-R² and Hosmer-Lemeshow tests, and predictive accuracy evaluated through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Asthma prevalence was 22.5% among the study population. Higher altitudes were linked to a significantly lower likelihood of asthma (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 0.10, p = 0.002). In contrast, extended family living arrangements (AOR: 8.80, p = 0.008) and individuals in their prime working years (AOR: 93.36, p = 0.001) showed elevated asthma risk. Protective factors included higher education, government employment, farming, increased household income, and residence in modern housing. The model exhibited strong fit (Nagelkerke R2 = 0.82) and high predictive accuracy (ROC-AUC = 0.98). Asthma prevalence among Gujjar and Bakarwal tribes in the high-altitude Himalayas is shaped by a complex interplay of altitude, socioeconomic status, and demographic factors. Altitude appears protective, while social structure, economic activities, and housing conditions modulate asthma risk. GIS-based spatial analysis effectively identifies high-risk areas, underscoring the need for targeted public health interventions tailored to the specific needs of these geographically isolated communities. |
| format | Article |
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| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
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| spelling | doaj-art-67a9ef4a1a0a479ca3b04efdc82c15ac2025-08-20T03:03:37ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-07-0115112210.1038/s41598-025-07482-9Asthma prevalence and risk factors in Poonch and Rajouri districts, India: an epidemiological and geospatial analysisArshad Ahmed0Kheraj1Jorge Rocha2Alireza Mohammadi3Department of Geography, School of Basic Sciences, Central University of HaryanaDepartment of Geography, School of Basic Sciences, Central University of HaryanaCentre of Geographical Studies, Institute of Geography and Spatial Planning, University of LisbonDepartment of Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh ArdabiliAbstract Asthma is a significant global health issue, especially in high-altitude areas where unique environmental conditions and socioeconomic disparities may elevate disease risk and severity. This study examines the prevalence and determinants of asthma among the Gujjar and Bakarwal tribes living in the high-altitude regions of the western Himalayas, providing insights into the influence of altitude, socioeconomic factors, and lifestyle on asthma risk. We conducted a cross-sectional survey across 816 households in 50 villages in Poonch and Rajouri districts, utilizing a stratified random sampling approach to ensure a representative sample. Villages were categorized by altitude and population density. Geographic Information System (GIS) tools were used to map asthma prevalence using inverse distance weighting (IDW) and Natural Breaks classification to identify high-risk zones. To determine asthma risk factors, we applied a binary logistic regression model (BLRM), with model fit assessed via pseudo-R² and Hosmer-Lemeshow tests, and predictive accuracy evaluated through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Asthma prevalence was 22.5% among the study population. Higher altitudes were linked to a significantly lower likelihood of asthma (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 0.10, p = 0.002). In contrast, extended family living arrangements (AOR: 8.80, p = 0.008) and individuals in their prime working years (AOR: 93.36, p = 0.001) showed elevated asthma risk. Protective factors included higher education, government employment, farming, increased household income, and residence in modern housing. The model exhibited strong fit (Nagelkerke R2 = 0.82) and high predictive accuracy (ROC-AUC = 0.98). Asthma prevalence among Gujjar and Bakarwal tribes in the high-altitude Himalayas is shaped by a complex interplay of altitude, socioeconomic status, and demographic factors. Altitude appears protective, while social structure, economic activities, and housing conditions modulate asthma risk. GIS-based spatial analysis effectively identifies high-risk areas, underscoring the need for targeted public health interventions tailored to the specific needs of these geographically isolated communities.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-07482-9AsthmaHigh-altitudeSocioeconomic determinantsEpidemiological studyGeographic information systemsPublic health interventions |
| spellingShingle | Arshad Ahmed Kheraj Jorge Rocha Alireza Mohammadi Asthma prevalence and risk factors in Poonch and Rajouri districts, India: an epidemiological and geospatial analysis Scientific Reports Asthma High-altitude Socioeconomic determinants Epidemiological study Geographic information systems Public health interventions |
| title | Asthma prevalence and risk factors in Poonch and Rajouri districts, India: an epidemiological and geospatial analysis |
| title_full | Asthma prevalence and risk factors in Poonch and Rajouri districts, India: an epidemiological and geospatial analysis |
| title_fullStr | Asthma prevalence and risk factors in Poonch and Rajouri districts, India: an epidemiological and geospatial analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Asthma prevalence and risk factors in Poonch and Rajouri districts, India: an epidemiological and geospatial analysis |
| title_short | Asthma prevalence and risk factors in Poonch and Rajouri districts, India: an epidemiological and geospatial analysis |
| title_sort | asthma prevalence and risk factors in poonch and rajouri districts india an epidemiological and geospatial analysis |
| topic | Asthma High-altitude Socioeconomic determinants Epidemiological study Geographic information systems Public health interventions |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-07482-9 |
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