An interrupted time series study of the leprosy case detection in Brazil after the COVID-19 pandemic
Abstract COVID-19 pandemics affected several health systems processes, including leprosy care. This study aimed to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the leprosy case detection rate in Brazil from 2017 to 2022. Data was retrieved from Sinan, a Brazilian notification system, and monthly...
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Nature Portfolio
2025-03-01
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-94600-2 |
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| author | George Jó Bezerra Sousa Daniele dos Santos Lages Patrícia Pereira Lima Barbosa Margarida Cristiana Napoleão Rocha Sebastião Alves de Sena Neto Jurema Guerrieri Brandão Francisco Carlos Félix Lana Carlos Henrique Alencar Maria Lúcia Duarte Pereira Alda Maria da Cruz Ciro Martins Gomes |
| author_facet | George Jó Bezerra Sousa Daniele dos Santos Lages Patrícia Pereira Lima Barbosa Margarida Cristiana Napoleão Rocha Sebastião Alves de Sena Neto Jurema Guerrieri Brandão Francisco Carlos Félix Lana Carlos Henrique Alencar Maria Lúcia Duarte Pereira Alda Maria da Cruz Ciro Martins Gomes |
| author_sort | George Jó Bezerra Sousa |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract COVID-19 pandemics affected several health systems processes, including leprosy care. This study aimed to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the leprosy case detection rate in Brazil from 2017 to 2022. Data was retrieved from Sinan, a Brazilian notification system, and monthly leprosy detection rate in the overall population and in individuals under 15 years of age were the main outcomes. The series was interrupted in February 2020, when the COVID-19 public health emergency was declared in Brazil. The data were analysed via Prais–Winsten regression. Over the 72 months analysed, the COVID-19 pandemic led to an immediate 0.55 reduction (95% CI 0.48–0.62) in the overall leprosy detection rate, with a subsequent monthly increase of 1.01 (95% CI 1.00–1.02). For the population under 15 years of age, the pandemic caused an immediate 0.48 reduction (95% CI 0.40–0.57), followed by a monthly increase of 1.01 (95% CI 1.01–1.02) after the onset of the pandemic. Subnational analysis revealed that most federative units followed the trend for the overall detection rate, but high heterogeneity was observed regarding individuals under 15 years of age. Therefore, it is urgent to target strategies to minimize delayed diagnosis and long-term consequences of leprosy. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-6796aa6e8bb9480eaf36751d3711c9d1 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj-art-6796aa6e8bb9480eaf36751d3711c9d12025-08-20T02:51:23ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-03-0115111110.1038/s41598-025-94600-2An interrupted time series study of the leprosy case detection in Brazil after the COVID-19 pandemicGeorge Jó Bezerra Sousa0Daniele dos Santos Lages1Patrícia Pereira Lima Barbosa2Margarida Cristiana Napoleão Rocha3Sebastião Alves de Sena Neto4Jurema Guerrieri Brandão5Francisco Carlos Félix Lana6Carlos Henrique Alencar7Maria Lúcia Duarte Pereira8Alda Maria da Cruz9Ciro Martins Gomes10General Coordination of Surveillance of Leprosy and Diseases in Elimination, Department of Transmitted Diseases, Ministry of HealthLeprosy Coordination, Minas Gerais Health SecretaryGeneral Coordination of Surveillance of Leprosy and Diseases in Elimination, Department of Transmitted Diseases, Ministry of HealthGeneral Coordination of Surveillance of Leprosy and Diseases in Elimination, Department of Transmitted Diseases, Ministry of HealthGeneral Coordination of Surveillance of Leprosy and Diseases in Elimination, Department of Transmitted Diseases, Ministry of HealthGeneral Coordination of Surveillance of Leprosy and Diseases in Elimination, Department of Transmitted Diseases, Ministry of HealthSchool of Nursing, Federal University of Minas GeraisDeparment of Public Health, Federal University of CearáFaculty of Nursing, Ceará State UniversityDepartment of Transmitted Diseases, Ministry of HealthGeneral Coordination of Surveillance of Leprosy and Diseases in Elimination, Department of Transmitted Diseases, Ministry of HealthAbstract COVID-19 pandemics affected several health systems processes, including leprosy care. This study aimed to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the leprosy case detection rate in Brazil from 2017 to 2022. Data was retrieved from Sinan, a Brazilian notification system, and monthly leprosy detection rate in the overall population and in individuals under 15 years of age were the main outcomes. The series was interrupted in February 2020, when the COVID-19 public health emergency was declared in Brazil. The data were analysed via Prais–Winsten regression. Over the 72 months analysed, the COVID-19 pandemic led to an immediate 0.55 reduction (95% CI 0.48–0.62) in the overall leprosy detection rate, with a subsequent monthly increase of 1.01 (95% CI 1.00–1.02). For the population under 15 years of age, the pandemic caused an immediate 0.48 reduction (95% CI 0.40–0.57), followed by a monthly increase of 1.01 (95% CI 1.01–1.02) after the onset of the pandemic. Subnational analysis revealed that most federative units followed the trend for the overall detection rate, but high heterogeneity was observed regarding individuals under 15 years of age. Therefore, it is urgent to target strategies to minimize delayed diagnosis and long-term consequences of leprosy.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-94600-2Hansen’s diseaseLeprosyCOVID-19Interrupted time series analysisEpidemiology |
| spellingShingle | George Jó Bezerra Sousa Daniele dos Santos Lages Patrícia Pereira Lima Barbosa Margarida Cristiana Napoleão Rocha Sebastião Alves de Sena Neto Jurema Guerrieri Brandão Francisco Carlos Félix Lana Carlos Henrique Alencar Maria Lúcia Duarte Pereira Alda Maria da Cruz Ciro Martins Gomes An interrupted time series study of the leprosy case detection in Brazil after the COVID-19 pandemic Scientific Reports Hansen’s disease Leprosy COVID-19 Interrupted time series analysis Epidemiology |
| title | An interrupted time series study of the leprosy case detection in Brazil after the COVID-19 pandemic |
| title_full | An interrupted time series study of the leprosy case detection in Brazil after the COVID-19 pandemic |
| title_fullStr | An interrupted time series study of the leprosy case detection in Brazil after the COVID-19 pandemic |
| title_full_unstemmed | An interrupted time series study of the leprosy case detection in Brazil after the COVID-19 pandemic |
| title_short | An interrupted time series study of the leprosy case detection in Brazil after the COVID-19 pandemic |
| title_sort | interrupted time series study of the leprosy case detection in brazil after the covid 19 pandemic |
| topic | Hansen’s disease Leprosy COVID-19 Interrupted time series analysis Epidemiology |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-94600-2 |
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