Potential Distribution and Cultivation Areas of <i>Argentina anserina</i> (Rosaceae) in the Upper Reaches of the Dadu River and Minjiang River Basin Under Climate Change: Applications of Ensemble and Productivity Dynamic Models
<i>Argentina anserina</i> (Rosaceae), a perennial herb, forms enlarged tuberous roots (commonly referred to as “ginseng fruit”) exclusively in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, making it a unique medicinal and edible plant resource in this region. The upper reaches of the Dadu River and Minjian...
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2025-06-01
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| author | Yi Huang Jian Yang Guanghua Zhao Yang Yang |
| author_facet | Yi Huang Jian Yang Guanghua Zhao Yang Yang |
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| description | <i>Argentina anserina</i> (Rosaceae), a perennial herb, forms enlarged tuberous roots (commonly referred to as “ginseng fruit”) exclusively in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, making it a unique medicinal and edible plant resource in this region. The upper reaches of the Dadu River and Minjiang River are one of its primary production areas in China. This study employs an ensemble model to simulate the potential distribution of <i>A. anserina</i> in this region, predicting the impacts of future climate change on its distribution, ecological niche, and centroid migration patterns. Additionally, a cultivation productivity evaluation model integrating ecological suitability and nutritional components was developed to delineate potential cultivation areas. Results indicate that high-suitability habitats span 0.37 × 10<sup>4</sup> km<sup>2</sup> (7.39% of the total suitable area), exhibiting a patchy and fragmented distribution in Aba County, Rangtang County, Jiuzhi County, and Banma County. Core cultivation areas cover 3.78 × 10<sup>4</sup> km<sup>2</sup>, distributed across Aba County, Rangtang County, Jiuzhi County, Seda County, Banma County, Hongyuan County, and Markam City. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable distribution area of <i>A. anserina</i> will gradually decline with rising temperatures, migrating to higher-latitude northern regions, accompanied by increased niche migration. By the 2090s under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the centroid demonstrates the largest migration amplitude, with high-suitability habitats showing a “collapsing” polarization pattern and near-complete niche separation from the previous period, indicating significant changes. Collectively, these results provide a theoretical basis for the sustainable utilization of <i>A. anserina</i> in the upper Dadu River and Minjiang River basin. |
| format | Article |
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| institution | Kabale University |
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| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
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| series | Biology |
| spelling | doaj-art-67449b3b3daa4c86b35a4a7c3a5a33362025-08-20T03:27:17ZengMDPI AGBiology2079-77372025-06-0114666810.3390/biology14060668Potential Distribution and Cultivation Areas of <i>Argentina anserina</i> (Rosaceae) in the Upper Reaches of the Dadu River and Minjiang River Basin Under Climate Change: Applications of Ensemble and Productivity Dynamic ModelsYi Huang0Jian Yang1Guanghua Zhao2Yang Yang3Key Laboratory of Biodiversity and Environment on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, Ministry of Education, School of Ecology and Environment, Xizang University, Lhasa 850000, ChinaSichuan Provincial Forest and Grassland Key Laboratory of Alpine Grassland Conservation and Utilization of Tibetan Plateau, College of Grassland Resources, Southwest Minzu University, Chengdu 610041, ChinaSchool of Life Science, South China Normal University, Guangzhou 510631, ChinaKey Laboratory of Biodiversity and Environment on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, Ministry of Education, School of Ecology and Environment, Xizang University, Lhasa 850000, China<i>Argentina anserina</i> (Rosaceae), a perennial herb, forms enlarged tuberous roots (commonly referred to as “ginseng fruit”) exclusively in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, making it a unique medicinal and edible plant resource in this region. The upper reaches of the Dadu River and Minjiang River are one of its primary production areas in China. This study employs an ensemble model to simulate the potential distribution of <i>A. anserina</i> in this region, predicting the impacts of future climate change on its distribution, ecological niche, and centroid migration patterns. Additionally, a cultivation productivity evaluation model integrating ecological suitability and nutritional components was developed to delineate potential cultivation areas. Results indicate that high-suitability habitats span 0.37 × 10<sup>4</sup> km<sup>2</sup> (7.39% of the total suitable area), exhibiting a patchy and fragmented distribution in Aba County, Rangtang County, Jiuzhi County, and Banma County. Core cultivation areas cover 3.78 × 10<sup>4</sup> km<sup>2</sup>, distributed across Aba County, Rangtang County, Jiuzhi County, Seda County, Banma County, Hongyuan County, and Markam City. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable distribution area of <i>A. anserina</i> will gradually decline with rising temperatures, migrating to higher-latitude northern regions, accompanied by increased niche migration. By the 2090s under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the centroid demonstrates the largest migration amplitude, with high-suitability habitats showing a “collapsing” polarization pattern and near-complete niche separation from the previous period, indicating significant changes. Collectively, these results provide a theoretical basis for the sustainable utilization of <i>A. anserina</i> in the upper Dadu River and Minjiang River basin.https://www.mdpi.com/2079-7737/14/6/668<i>Argentina anserina</i>biomod2climate changepotential distribution and cultivation areas |
| spellingShingle | Yi Huang Jian Yang Guanghua Zhao Yang Yang Potential Distribution and Cultivation Areas of <i>Argentina anserina</i> (Rosaceae) in the Upper Reaches of the Dadu River and Minjiang River Basin Under Climate Change: Applications of Ensemble and Productivity Dynamic Models Biology <i>Argentina anserina</i> biomod2 climate change potential distribution and cultivation areas |
| title | Potential Distribution and Cultivation Areas of <i>Argentina anserina</i> (Rosaceae) in the Upper Reaches of the Dadu River and Minjiang River Basin Under Climate Change: Applications of Ensemble and Productivity Dynamic Models |
| title_full | Potential Distribution and Cultivation Areas of <i>Argentina anserina</i> (Rosaceae) in the Upper Reaches of the Dadu River and Minjiang River Basin Under Climate Change: Applications of Ensemble and Productivity Dynamic Models |
| title_fullStr | Potential Distribution and Cultivation Areas of <i>Argentina anserina</i> (Rosaceae) in the Upper Reaches of the Dadu River and Minjiang River Basin Under Climate Change: Applications of Ensemble and Productivity Dynamic Models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Potential Distribution and Cultivation Areas of <i>Argentina anserina</i> (Rosaceae) in the Upper Reaches of the Dadu River and Minjiang River Basin Under Climate Change: Applications of Ensemble and Productivity Dynamic Models |
| title_short | Potential Distribution and Cultivation Areas of <i>Argentina anserina</i> (Rosaceae) in the Upper Reaches of the Dadu River and Minjiang River Basin Under Climate Change: Applications of Ensemble and Productivity Dynamic Models |
| title_sort | potential distribution and cultivation areas of i argentina anserina i rosaceae in the upper reaches of the dadu river and minjiang river basin under climate change applications of ensemble and productivity dynamic models |
| topic | <i>Argentina anserina</i> biomod2 climate change potential distribution and cultivation areas |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2079-7737/14/6/668 |
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