The Effect of Different Climate Sensitivity Priors on Projected Climate: A Probabilistic Analysis
Abstract Understanding equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS, equilibrium warming in response to a doubling of CO2) uncertainty is fundamental for making reliable climate projections. We leverage the Hector simple climate model in a probabilistic framework to explore how different ECS priors influenc...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2025-05-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113505 |
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| Summary: | Abstract Understanding equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS, equilibrium warming in response to a doubling of CO2) uncertainty is fundamental for making reliable climate projections. We leverage the Hector simple climate model in a probabilistic framework to explore how different ECS priors influence uncertainty in long‐term (2081–2100) temperature projections. This method demonstrates a computationally efficient probabilistic workflow that explores the effects of parameter priors on climate projections. Excluding process and paleoclimate evidence in ECS priors widens resulting temperature projection uncertainty (a 5%–95% confidence range of 1.12–3.03°C and 1.09–3.33°C, respectively), while synthesizing all lines of evidence narrows temperature projection uncertainty (1.24–2.89°C; 5–95% CI), suggesting a more robust range of future temperature outcomes. |
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| ISSN: | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |