On Generalized Additive Models for Representation of Solar EUV Irradiance
Abstract In the context of space weather forecasting, solar EUV irradiance specification is needed on multiple time scales, with associated uncertainty quantification for determining the accuracy of downstream parameters. Empirical models of irradiance often rely on parametric fits between irradianc...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2024-03-01
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| Series: | Space Weather |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023SW003680 |
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| _version_ | 1841536407215013888 |
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| author | Daniel A. Brandt Erick F. Vega Aaron J. Ridley |
| author_facet | Daniel A. Brandt Erick F. Vega Aaron J. Ridley |
| author_sort | Daniel A. Brandt |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract In the context of space weather forecasting, solar EUV irradiance specification is needed on multiple time scales, with associated uncertainty quantification for determining the accuracy of downstream parameters. Empirical models of irradiance often rely on parametric fits between irradiance in several bands and various solar indices. We build upon these empirical models by using Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) to represent solar irradiance. We apply the GAM approach in two steps: (a) A GAM is fitted between FISM2 irradiance and solar indices F10.7, Revised Sunspot Number, and the Lyman‐α solar index. (b) A second GAM is fit to model the residuals of the first GAM with respect to FISM2 irradiance. We evaluate the performance of this approach during Solar Cycle 24 using GAMs driven by known solar indices as well as those forecasted 3 days ahead with an autoregressive modeling approach. We demonstrate negligible dependence of performance on solar cycle and season, and we assess the efficacy of the GAM approach across different wavelengths. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-66a0ca2be2374463a83f5bbccef65c24 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1542-7390 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-03-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Space Weather |
| spelling | doaj-art-66a0ca2be2374463a83f5bbccef65c242025-01-14T16:30:30ZengWileySpace Weather1542-73902024-03-01223n/an/a10.1029/2023SW003680On Generalized Additive Models for Representation of Solar EUV IrradianceDaniel A. Brandt0Erick F. Vega1Aaron J. Ridley2Michigan Tech Research Institute Michigan Technological University Ann Arbor MI USAMichigan Tech Research Institute Michigan Technological University Ann Arbor MI USADepartment of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering University of Michigan Ann Arbor MI USAAbstract In the context of space weather forecasting, solar EUV irradiance specification is needed on multiple time scales, with associated uncertainty quantification for determining the accuracy of downstream parameters. Empirical models of irradiance often rely on parametric fits between irradiance in several bands and various solar indices. We build upon these empirical models by using Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) to represent solar irradiance. We apply the GAM approach in two steps: (a) A GAM is fitted between FISM2 irradiance and solar indices F10.7, Revised Sunspot Number, and the Lyman‐α solar index. (b) A second GAM is fit to model the residuals of the first GAM with respect to FISM2 irradiance. We evaluate the performance of this approach during Solar Cycle 24 using GAMs driven by known solar indices as well as those forecasted 3 days ahead with an autoregressive modeling approach. We demonstrate negligible dependence of performance on solar cycle and season, and we assess the efficacy of the GAM approach across different wavelengths.https://doi.org/10.1029/2023SW003680irradianceEUVnowcastGAMtimeseriesforecast |
| spellingShingle | Daniel A. Brandt Erick F. Vega Aaron J. Ridley On Generalized Additive Models for Representation of Solar EUV Irradiance Space Weather irradiance EUV nowcast GAM timeseries forecast |
| title | On Generalized Additive Models for Representation of Solar EUV Irradiance |
| title_full | On Generalized Additive Models for Representation of Solar EUV Irradiance |
| title_fullStr | On Generalized Additive Models for Representation of Solar EUV Irradiance |
| title_full_unstemmed | On Generalized Additive Models for Representation of Solar EUV Irradiance |
| title_short | On Generalized Additive Models for Representation of Solar EUV Irradiance |
| title_sort | on generalized additive models for representation of solar euv irradiance |
| topic | irradiance EUV nowcast GAM timeseries forecast |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023SW003680 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT danielabrandt ongeneralizedadditivemodelsforrepresentationofsolareuvirradiance AT erickfvega ongeneralizedadditivemodelsforrepresentationofsolareuvirradiance AT aaronjridley ongeneralizedadditivemodelsforrepresentationofsolareuvirradiance |