The role of land–atmosphere coupling in subseasonal surface air temperature prediction across the contiguous United States
<p>Land–atmosphere (L–A) coupling can play a crucial role for subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictability and prediction. When coupling is strong, L–A processes and feedback are expected to enhance the system's memory, thereby increasing the predictability and prediction skill. This stud...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2025-08-01
|
| Series: | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/29/3435/2025/hess-29-3435-2025.pdf |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1849707406979760128 |
|---|---|
| author | Y. Lim Y. Lim A. M. Molod R. D. Koster J. A. Santanello |
| author_facet | Y. Lim Y. Lim A. M. Molod R. D. Koster J. A. Santanello |
| author_sort | Y. Lim |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Land–atmosphere (L–A) coupling can play a crucial role for subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictability and prediction. When coupling is strong, L–A processes and feedback are expected to enhance the system's memory, thereby increasing the predictability and prediction skill. This study evaluates the subseasonal prediction of ambient surface air temperature under conditions of strong versus weak L–A coupling in forecasts produced with NASA's state-of-the-art Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) S2S forecast system. By applying three L–A coupling metrics that collectively capture the connection between the soil and the free troposphere, we observe improved prediction skill for surface air temperature during weeks 3–4 of boreal summer forecasts across the Midwest and northern Great Plains, particularly when all three indices indicate strong L–A coupling at this lead time. The prediction skill indeed increases as more indices show strong coupling. The forecasts with strong L–A coupling in these regions tend to exhibit sustained warm and dry anomalies, signals that are well simulated in the model. Overall, this study highlights how better identifying and capturing relevant L–A coupling processes can potentially enhance prediction on S2S timescales.</p> |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-668c00513f814b28a6ecf9582f7cd682 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 1027-5606 1607-7938 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| spelling | doaj-art-668c00513f814b28a6ecf9582f7cd6822025-08-20T03:15:55ZengCopernicus PublicationsHydrology and Earth System Sciences1027-56061607-79382025-08-01293435344510.5194/hess-29-3435-2025The role of land–atmosphere coupling in subseasonal surface air temperature prediction across the contiguous United StatesY. Lim0Y. Lim1A. M. Molod2R. D. Koster3J. A. Santanello4Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland College Park, College Park, Maryland 20740, USAGlobal Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland 20771, USAGlobal Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland 20771, USAGlobal Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland 20771, USAHydrological Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland 20771, USA<p>Land–atmosphere (L–A) coupling can play a crucial role for subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictability and prediction. When coupling is strong, L–A processes and feedback are expected to enhance the system's memory, thereby increasing the predictability and prediction skill. This study evaluates the subseasonal prediction of ambient surface air temperature under conditions of strong versus weak L–A coupling in forecasts produced with NASA's state-of-the-art Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) S2S forecast system. By applying three L–A coupling metrics that collectively capture the connection between the soil and the free troposphere, we observe improved prediction skill for surface air temperature during weeks 3–4 of boreal summer forecasts across the Midwest and northern Great Plains, particularly when all three indices indicate strong L–A coupling at this lead time. The prediction skill indeed increases as more indices show strong coupling. The forecasts with strong L–A coupling in these regions tend to exhibit sustained warm and dry anomalies, signals that are well simulated in the model. Overall, this study highlights how better identifying and capturing relevant L–A coupling processes can potentially enhance prediction on S2S timescales.</p>https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/29/3435/2025/hess-29-3435-2025.pdf |
| spellingShingle | Y. Lim Y. Lim A. M. Molod R. D. Koster J. A. Santanello The role of land–atmosphere coupling in subseasonal surface air temperature prediction across the contiguous United States Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| title | The role of land–atmosphere coupling in subseasonal surface air temperature prediction across the contiguous United States |
| title_full | The role of land–atmosphere coupling in subseasonal surface air temperature prediction across the contiguous United States |
| title_fullStr | The role of land–atmosphere coupling in subseasonal surface air temperature prediction across the contiguous United States |
| title_full_unstemmed | The role of land–atmosphere coupling in subseasonal surface air temperature prediction across the contiguous United States |
| title_short | The role of land–atmosphere coupling in subseasonal surface air temperature prediction across the contiguous United States |
| title_sort | role of land atmosphere coupling in subseasonal surface air temperature prediction across the contiguous united states |
| url | https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/29/3435/2025/hess-29-3435-2025.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT ylim theroleoflandatmospherecouplinginsubseasonalsurfaceairtemperaturepredictionacrossthecontiguousunitedstates AT ylim theroleoflandatmospherecouplinginsubseasonalsurfaceairtemperaturepredictionacrossthecontiguousunitedstates AT ammolod theroleoflandatmospherecouplinginsubseasonalsurfaceairtemperaturepredictionacrossthecontiguousunitedstates AT rdkoster theroleoflandatmospherecouplinginsubseasonalsurfaceairtemperaturepredictionacrossthecontiguousunitedstates AT jasantanello theroleoflandatmospherecouplinginsubseasonalsurfaceairtemperaturepredictionacrossthecontiguousunitedstates AT ylim roleoflandatmospherecouplinginsubseasonalsurfaceairtemperaturepredictionacrossthecontiguousunitedstates AT ylim roleoflandatmospherecouplinginsubseasonalsurfaceairtemperaturepredictionacrossthecontiguousunitedstates AT ammolod roleoflandatmospherecouplinginsubseasonalsurfaceairtemperaturepredictionacrossthecontiguousunitedstates AT rdkoster roleoflandatmospherecouplinginsubseasonalsurfaceairtemperaturepredictionacrossthecontiguousunitedstates AT jasantanello roleoflandatmospherecouplinginsubseasonalsurfaceairtemperaturepredictionacrossthecontiguousunitedstates |