Validation of a Simple Score for Mortality Prediction in a Cohort of Unselected Emergency Patients

Background. Prognostication is an important component of medical decision-making. A patients’ general prognosis can be difficult to measure. The Simple Prognostic Score (SPS) was designed to include patients’ age, mobility, aggregated vital signs, and the treating physician’s decision to admit to ai...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Jeannette-Marie Busch, Isabelle Arnold, John Kellett, Mikkel Brabrand, Roland Bingisser, Christian H. Nickel
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2022-01-01
Series:International Journal of Clinical Practice
Online Access:http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/7281693
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1832563496289566720
author Jeannette-Marie Busch
Isabelle Arnold
John Kellett
Mikkel Brabrand
Roland Bingisser
Christian H. Nickel
author_facet Jeannette-Marie Busch
Isabelle Arnold
John Kellett
Mikkel Brabrand
Roland Bingisser
Christian H. Nickel
author_sort Jeannette-Marie Busch
collection DOAJ
description Background. Prognostication is an important component of medical decision-making. A patients’ general prognosis can be difficult to measure. The Simple Prognostic Score (SPS) was designed to include patients’ age, mobility, aggregated vital signs, and the treating physician’s decision to admit to aid prognostication. Study Aim. Our study aim is to validate the SPS, compare it with the Emergency Severity Index (ESI) regarding its prognostic performance, and test the interrater reliability of the subjective variable of the decision to admit. Methods. Over a period of 9 weeks all patients presenting to the ED were included, routinely interviewed, final disposition registered, and followed up for one year. The C-statistics of discrimination was used to compare SPS and ESI predictions of 7-day, 30-day, and 1-year mortality. Youden J Statistics and Odds ratio, using logistical regression, were calculated for the Simple Prognostic Score. In a subset, a chart review was performed by senior physicians for a secondary assessment of the decision to admit. Interrater reliability was calculated using percentages and Cohens Kappa. Results. Out of 5648 patients, 3272 (57.9%) had a low SPS (i.e., ≤ 1); none of these patients died within 7 days, 2 (0.1%) died within 30 days after presentation and 19 (0.6%) died within a year. The area under the curve for 1-year mortality of the Simple Prognostic Score was 0.848. Secondary analysis of the interrater agreement for the decision to admit was 92%. Conclusion. In a prospective study of unselected ED patients, the Simple Prognostic Score was validated as a reliable predictor of short- and long-term mortality.
format Article
id doaj-art-663e134a24444bbfa9503a95dd3727d8
institution Kabale University
issn 1742-1241
language English
publishDate 2022-01-01
publisher Wiley
record_format Article
series International Journal of Clinical Practice
spelling doaj-art-663e134a24444bbfa9503a95dd3727d82025-02-03T01:20:00ZengWileyInternational Journal of Clinical Practice1742-12412022-01-01202210.1155/2022/7281693Validation of a Simple Score for Mortality Prediction in a Cohort of Unselected Emergency PatientsJeannette-Marie Busch0Isabelle Arnold1John Kellett2Mikkel Brabrand3Roland Bingisser4Christian H. Nickel5Emergency DepartmentEmergency DepartmentDepartment of Emergency MedicineDepartment of Emergency MedicineEmergency DepartmentEmergency DepartmentBackground. Prognostication is an important component of medical decision-making. A patients’ general prognosis can be difficult to measure. The Simple Prognostic Score (SPS) was designed to include patients’ age, mobility, aggregated vital signs, and the treating physician’s decision to admit to aid prognostication. Study Aim. Our study aim is to validate the SPS, compare it with the Emergency Severity Index (ESI) regarding its prognostic performance, and test the interrater reliability of the subjective variable of the decision to admit. Methods. Over a period of 9 weeks all patients presenting to the ED were included, routinely interviewed, final disposition registered, and followed up for one year. The C-statistics of discrimination was used to compare SPS and ESI predictions of 7-day, 30-day, and 1-year mortality. Youden J Statistics and Odds ratio, using logistical regression, were calculated for the Simple Prognostic Score. In a subset, a chart review was performed by senior physicians for a secondary assessment of the decision to admit. Interrater reliability was calculated using percentages and Cohens Kappa. Results. Out of 5648 patients, 3272 (57.9%) had a low SPS (i.e., ≤ 1); none of these patients died within 7 days, 2 (0.1%) died within 30 days after presentation and 19 (0.6%) died within a year. The area under the curve for 1-year mortality of the Simple Prognostic Score was 0.848. Secondary analysis of the interrater agreement for the decision to admit was 92%. Conclusion. In a prospective study of unselected ED patients, the Simple Prognostic Score was validated as a reliable predictor of short- and long-term mortality.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/7281693
spellingShingle Jeannette-Marie Busch
Isabelle Arnold
John Kellett
Mikkel Brabrand
Roland Bingisser
Christian H. Nickel
Validation of a Simple Score for Mortality Prediction in a Cohort of Unselected Emergency Patients
International Journal of Clinical Practice
title Validation of a Simple Score for Mortality Prediction in a Cohort of Unselected Emergency Patients
title_full Validation of a Simple Score for Mortality Prediction in a Cohort of Unselected Emergency Patients
title_fullStr Validation of a Simple Score for Mortality Prediction in a Cohort of Unselected Emergency Patients
title_full_unstemmed Validation of a Simple Score for Mortality Prediction in a Cohort of Unselected Emergency Patients
title_short Validation of a Simple Score for Mortality Prediction in a Cohort of Unselected Emergency Patients
title_sort validation of a simple score for mortality prediction in a cohort of unselected emergency patients
url http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/7281693
work_keys_str_mv AT jeannettemariebusch validationofasimplescoreformortalitypredictioninacohortofunselectedemergencypatients
AT isabellearnold validationofasimplescoreformortalitypredictioninacohortofunselectedemergencypatients
AT johnkellett validationofasimplescoreformortalitypredictioninacohortofunselectedemergencypatients
AT mikkelbrabrand validationofasimplescoreformortalitypredictioninacohortofunselectedemergencypatients
AT rolandbingisser validationofasimplescoreformortalitypredictioninacohortofunselectedemergencypatients
AT christianhnickel validationofasimplescoreformortalitypredictioninacohortofunselectedemergencypatients