Modeling the effects of climate change scenarios on the potential distribution of Vespa crabro Linnaeus, 1758 (Hymenoptera: Vespidae) in a Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot
Climate change poses unprecedented challenges to ecosystems and species, particularly in biodiversity hotspots like the European-Mediterranean regions. The ecological consequences are not easily discernible. Although the influence of climate on plants and vertebrates has been extensively studied, it...
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Elsevier
2025-05-01
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| Series: | Ecological Informatics |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1574954125000159 |
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| author | Erika Bazzato Arturo Cocco Emanuele Salaris Ignazio Floris Alberto Satta Michelina Pusceddu |
| author_facet | Erika Bazzato Arturo Cocco Emanuele Salaris Ignazio Floris Alberto Satta Michelina Pusceddu |
| author_sort | Erika Bazzato |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change poses unprecedented challenges to ecosystems and species, particularly in biodiversity hotspots like the European-Mediterranean regions. The ecological consequences are not easily discernible. Although the influence of climate on plants and vertebrates has been extensively studied, its impact on alien insects, especially social wasps, remains underexplored. To address this gap, this study identifies climatically suitable habitats for Vespa crabro under current conditions, projects its potential future distribution, and assesses potential range shifts driven by climate change to guide monitoring programs and management measures. We focused on Sardinia, a Mediterranean island with a heterogeneous morphological, geological, and climatic pattern, where V. crabro was accidentally introduced.We used 316 verified citizen science occurrences, high-resolution bioclimatic variables (40 × 40 m) specifically developed for the island, and two future climate and socio-economic scenarios for two temporal horizons (2040 and 2060) to model climatic suitability using an ensemble framework with three machine learning algorithms: Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Generalized Boosting Model (GBM), and Random Forest (RF). To ensure reliable predictions, we addressed several technical challenges, including correcting for sampling biases and spatial autocorrelation. The individual models were weighted based on spatial cross-validation performance and combined to obtain the ensemble model.Performance varied among 150 individual models (3 algorithms × 10 replicates × 5 folds), depending on the algorithms, replicates, and subsets selected for training and testing. RF demonstrated the highest predictive performance, outperforming ANN and GBM. The ensemble model achieved even higher predictive accuracy with Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) = 0.95 ± 0.02 and True Skill Statistic (TSS) = 0.78 ± 0.06.Key factors influencing V. crabro distribution included Annual Mean Temperature, Maximum Temperature of Warmest Month, Temperature Annual Range, Precipitation of Driest Month, and Precipitation Seasonality. Currently, climatically suitable habitats are predominantly in the northern part of the island, in most coastal areas, and in specific inland regions, especially those near or inside mountainous areas. Future projections indicate a distribution range contraction by the 2040s and 2060s, primarily driven by extreme variability in precipitation and rising temperatures approaching the species' thermal tolerance limits.Our study demonstrates the value of integrating citizen science data, high-resolution climate data, and advanced modeling techniques to understand and manage alien species in the context of climate change. It highlights the importance of fine-scale studies to complement broader analyses, providing deeper insight into the impacts of climate change on species distribution, especially in heterogeneous areas like those in the Mediterranean. |
| format | Article |
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| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-05-01 |
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| spelling | doaj-art-65ee738e75e84e59898ee7693f70bd2b2025-08-20T02:03:46ZengElsevierEcological Informatics1574-95412025-05-018610300610.1016/j.ecoinf.2025.103006Modeling the effects of climate change scenarios on the potential distribution of Vespa crabro Linnaeus, 1758 (Hymenoptera: Vespidae) in a Mediterranean biodiversity hotspotErika Bazzato0Arturo Cocco1Emanuele Salaris2Ignazio Floris3Alberto Satta4Michelina Pusceddu5Department of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Cagliari, Via Sant'Ignazio da Laconi, 13, 09123 Cagliari, Italy; Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Sassari, Viale Italia 39A, 07100 Sassari, Italy; Corresponding authors at: Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Sassari, Viale Italia 39A, 07100 Sassari, Italy.Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Sassari, Viale Italia 39A, 07100 Sassari, Italy; Interdepartmental Center IA – Innovative Agriculture, SS, 127 bis, km 28.500, 07041 Alghero, ItalyDepartment of Agricultural Sciences, University of Sassari, Viale Italia 39A, 07100 Sassari, ItalyDepartment of Agricultural Sciences, University of Sassari, Viale Italia 39A, 07100 Sassari, Italy; NBFC, National Biodiversity Future Center, Piazza Marina 61, 90133 Palermo, ItalyDepartment of Agricultural Sciences, University of Sassari, Viale Italia 39A, 07100 Sassari, Italy; NBFC, National Biodiversity Future Center, Piazza Marina 61, 90133 Palermo, Italy; Corresponding authors at: Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Sassari, Viale Italia 39A, 07100 Sassari, Italy.Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Sassari, Viale Italia 39A, 07100 Sassari, Italy; NBFC, National Biodiversity Future Center, Piazza Marina 61, 90133 Palermo, ItalyClimate change poses unprecedented challenges to ecosystems and species, particularly in biodiversity hotspots like the European-Mediterranean regions. The ecological consequences are not easily discernible. Although the influence of climate on plants and vertebrates has been extensively studied, its impact on alien insects, especially social wasps, remains underexplored. To address this gap, this study identifies climatically suitable habitats for Vespa crabro under current conditions, projects its potential future distribution, and assesses potential range shifts driven by climate change to guide monitoring programs and management measures. We focused on Sardinia, a Mediterranean island with a heterogeneous morphological, geological, and climatic pattern, where V. crabro was accidentally introduced.We used 316 verified citizen science occurrences, high-resolution bioclimatic variables (40 × 40 m) specifically developed for the island, and two future climate and socio-economic scenarios for two temporal horizons (2040 and 2060) to model climatic suitability using an ensemble framework with three machine learning algorithms: Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Generalized Boosting Model (GBM), and Random Forest (RF). To ensure reliable predictions, we addressed several technical challenges, including correcting for sampling biases and spatial autocorrelation. The individual models were weighted based on spatial cross-validation performance and combined to obtain the ensemble model.Performance varied among 150 individual models (3 algorithms × 10 replicates × 5 folds), depending on the algorithms, replicates, and subsets selected for training and testing. RF demonstrated the highest predictive performance, outperforming ANN and GBM. The ensemble model achieved even higher predictive accuracy with Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) = 0.95 ± 0.02 and True Skill Statistic (TSS) = 0.78 ± 0.06.Key factors influencing V. crabro distribution included Annual Mean Temperature, Maximum Temperature of Warmest Month, Temperature Annual Range, Precipitation of Driest Month, and Precipitation Seasonality. Currently, climatically suitable habitats are predominantly in the northern part of the island, in most coastal areas, and in specific inland regions, especially those near or inside mountainous areas. Future projections indicate a distribution range contraction by the 2040s and 2060s, primarily driven by extreme variability in precipitation and rising temperatures approaching the species' thermal tolerance limits.Our study demonstrates the value of integrating citizen science data, high-resolution climate data, and advanced modeling techniques to understand and manage alien species in the context of climate change. It highlights the importance of fine-scale studies to complement broader analyses, providing deeper insight into the impacts of climate change on species distribution, especially in heterogeneous areas like those in the Mediterranean.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1574954125000159Alien speciesClimate influenceEuropean hornetMediterranean islandSocial waspClimatic suitability models |
| spellingShingle | Erika Bazzato Arturo Cocco Emanuele Salaris Ignazio Floris Alberto Satta Michelina Pusceddu Modeling the effects of climate change scenarios on the potential distribution of Vespa crabro Linnaeus, 1758 (Hymenoptera: Vespidae) in a Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot Ecological Informatics Alien species Climate influence European hornet Mediterranean island Social wasp Climatic suitability models |
| title | Modeling the effects of climate change scenarios on the potential distribution of Vespa crabro Linnaeus, 1758 (Hymenoptera: Vespidae) in a Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot |
| title_full | Modeling the effects of climate change scenarios on the potential distribution of Vespa crabro Linnaeus, 1758 (Hymenoptera: Vespidae) in a Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot |
| title_fullStr | Modeling the effects of climate change scenarios on the potential distribution of Vespa crabro Linnaeus, 1758 (Hymenoptera: Vespidae) in a Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling the effects of climate change scenarios on the potential distribution of Vespa crabro Linnaeus, 1758 (Hymenoptera: Vespidae) in a Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot |
| title_short | Modeling the effects of climate change scenarios on the potential distribution of Vespa crabro Linnaeus, 1758 (Hymenoptera: Vespidae) in a Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot |
| title_sort | modeling the effects of climate change scenarios on the potential distribution of vespa crabro linnaeus 1758 hymenoptera vespidae in a mediterranean biodiversity hotspot |
| topic | Alien species Climate influence European hornet Mediterranean island Social wasp Climatic suitability models |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1574954125000159 |
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