Instability and uncertainty of carbon storage in karst regions under land use change: a case study in Guiyang, China
IntroductionKarst regions are integral to the global carbon cycle. However, land use changes of karst regions driven by urbanization and desertification contribute to the instability of carbon storage, leading to uncertainties in the future. Understanding these instabilities and uncertainties is cru...
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2025-02-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Environmental Science |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2025.1551050/full |
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| author | Heng Zhou Heng Zhou Mingdong Tang Jun Huang Jinting Zhang Jingnan Huang Jingnan Huang Haijuan Zhao Haijuan Zhao Yize Yu |
| author_facet | Heng Zhou Heng Zhou Mingdong Tang Jun Huang Jinting Zhang Jingnan Huang Jingnan Huang Haijuan Zhao Haijuan Zhao Yize Yu |
| author_sort | Heng Zhou |
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| description | IntroductionKarst regions are integral to the global carbon cycle. However, land use changes of karst regions driven by urbanization and desertification contribute to the instability of carbon storage, leading to uncertainties in the future. Understanding these instabilities and uncertainties is crucial for formulating carbon sequestration and land management strategies.MethodsThis study employed Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) to estimate carbon storage, and introduced the Coefficient of Variation (CV) to assess the instability and uncertainty. Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) was applied to explore the mechanisms, while Polynomial Regression (PR) identified the stable intervals of factors, informing land-use policies.Results and Discussion(1) From 2000 to 2020, Guiyang’s carbon storage rose from 136.62 Tg to 142.13 Tg. By 2035, projections under natural development, urban expansion, and ecological protection scenarios estimate increases to 147.50 Tg, 147.40 Tg, and 147.82 Tg, respectively. (2) Carbon storage instability increased from 2000 to 2020, while uncertainty is expected to decrease by 2035. Instability was primarily due to transitions of Cropland-Forest, Forest-Cropland, Cropland-Grassland, and Cropland-Impervious, while uncertainties mainly arise from Cropland-Forest, Cropland-Impervious, and Grassland-Impervious transitions. (3) DEM, AI, Distance from national highways, SHDI, and Mean annual precipitation affected instability significantly. (4) Encouraging Shrub-Forest, Shrub-Cropland and Cropland-Forest conversions, and controlling Forest-Cropland, Forest-Shrub, and Cropland-Impervious conversions within the stable intervals of factors, can enhance carbon storage and reduce uncertainty. This study establishes a methodology for evaluating carbon storage instability and uncertainty in karst regions, which is an extension of carbon storage research. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-65ca879c0d1c4e638e9d40c8602bc29a |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2296-665X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
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| series | Frontiers in Environmental Science |
| spelling | doaj-art-65ca879c0d1c4e638e9d40c8602bc29a2025-08-20T02:14:26ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Environmental Science2296-665X2025-02-011310.3389/fenvs.2025.15510501551050Instability and uncertainty of carbon storage in karst regions under land use change: a case study in Guiyang, ChinaHeng Zhou0Heng Zhou1Mingdong Tang2Jun Huang3Jinting Zhang4Jingnan Huang5Jingnan Huang6Haijuan Zhao7Haijuan Zhao8Yize Yu9School of Urban Construction, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, ChinaHubei Engineering Research Center of Urban Renewal, Wuhan, ChinaSchool of Urban Construction, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, ChinaCollege of Digital Construction and Blasting Engineering, Jianghan University, Wuhan, ChinaSchool of Resource and Environmental Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan, ChinaSchool of Urban Design, Wuhan University, Wuhan, ChinaHubei Habitat Environment Research Centre of Engineering and Technology, Wuhan, ChinaSchool of Urban Design, Wuhan University, Wuhan, ChinaWuhan Design Consultation Group Co., Ltd., Wuhan, ChinaGuizhou Urban and Rural Planning and Design Research Institute Co., Ltd., Guiyang, ChinaIntroductionKarst regions are integral to the global carbon cycle. However, land use changes of karst regions driven by urbanization and desertification contribute to the instability of carbon storage, leading to uncertainties in the future. Understanding these instabilities and uncertainties is crucial for formulating carbon sequestration and land management strategies.MethodsThis study employed Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) to estimate carbon storage, and introduced the Coefficient of Variation (CV) to assess the instability and uncertainty. Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) was applied to explore the mechanisms, while Polynomial Regression (PR) identified the stable intervals of factors, informing land-use policies.Results and Discussion(1) From 2000 to 2020, Guiyang’s carbon storage rose from 136.62 Tg to 142.13 Tg. By 2035, projections under natural development, urban expansion, and ecological protection scenarios estimate increases to 147.50 Tg, 147.40 Tg, and 147.82 Tg, respectively. (2) Carbon storage instability increased from 2000 to 2020, while uncertainty is expected to decrease by 2035. Instability was primarily due to transitions of Cropland-Forest, Forest-Cropland, Cropland-Grassland, and Cropland-Impervious, while uncertainties mainly arise from Cropland-Forest, Cropland-Impervious, and Grassland-Impervious transitions. (3) DEM, AI, Distance from national highways, SHDI, and Mean annual precipitation affected instability significantly. (4) Encouraging Shrub-Forest, Shrub-Cropland and Cropland-Forest conversions, and controlling Forest-Cropland, Forest-Shrub, and Cropland-Impervious conversions within the stable intervals of factors, can enhance carbon storage and reduce uncertainty. This study establishes a methodology for evaluating carbon storage instability and uncertainty in karst regions, which is an extension of carbon storage research.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2025.1551050/fullcarbon neutralland use change simulationcoefficient of variation (CV)influence mechanismstable intervalland use control |
| spellingShingle | Heng Zhou Heng Zhou Mingdong Tang Jun Huang Jinting Zhang Jingnan Huang Jingnan Huang Haijuan Zhao Haijuan Zhao Yize Yu Instability and uncertainty of carbon storage in karst regions under land use change: a case study in Guiyang, China Frontiers in Environmental Science carbon neutral land use change simulation coefficient of variation (CV) influence mechanism stable interval land use control |
| title | Instability and uncertainty of carbon storage in karst regions under land use change: a case study in Guiyang, China |
| title_full | Instability and uncertainty of carbon storage in karst regions under land use change: a case study in Guiyang, China |
| title_fullStr | Instability and uncertainty of carbon storage in karst regions under land use change: a case study in Guiyang, China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Instability and uncertainty of carbon storage in karst regions under land use change: a case study in Guiyang, China |
| title_short | Instability and uncertainty of carbon storage in karst regions under land use change: a case study in Guiyang, China |
| title_sort | instability and uncertainty of carbon storage in karst regions under land use change a case study in guiyang china |
| topic | carbon neutral land use change simulation coefficient of variation (CV) influence mechanism stable interval land use control |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2025.1551050/full |
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