Evolution Model of Emergency Material Supply Chain Stress Based on Stochastic Petri Nets—A Case Study of Emergency Medical Material Supply Chains in China
In this study, we conceptualize the demands imposed on emergency supply chains during extraordinary emergency events as “stress” and develop a scenario-based stress evolution (SE) analytical approach in emergency mobilization decision-making. First, we characterize emergency supply chain stress by u...
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MDPI AG
2025-06-01
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| author | Qiming Chen Jihai Zhang |
| author_facet | Qiming Chen Jihai Zhang |
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| description | In this study, we conceptualize the demands imposed on emergency supply chains during extraordinary emergency events as “stress” and develop a scenario-based stress evolution (SE) analytical approach in emergency mobilization decision-making. First, we characterize emergency supply chain stress by uncertainty, abruptness, urgency, massiveness of scale, and latency. Leveraging lifecycle theory and aligning it with the event’s natural lifecycle progression, we construct a dual-cycle model—the emergency event-stress dual-cycle curve model—to intuitively conceptualize the SE process. Second, taking China’s emergency medical supply chain as an illustrative example, we employ set theory to achieve a structured representation of emergency supply chain stress evolution (ESCSE). Third, we propose a novel ESCSE modeling methodology based on stochastic Petri nets and establish both an ESCSE model and a corresponding isomorphic Markov chain model. To address parameter uncertainties inherent in the modeling process, the fuzzy theory is integrated for parameter optimization, enabling realistic simulation of emergency supply chain stress evolution dynamics. Finally, the SE of the ibuprofen supply chain in Beijing during the COVID-19 pandemic is presented as a case study to demonstrate the working principle of the model. The results indicate that the ESCSE model effectively simulates the SE process, identifies critical states, and triggers actions. It also reveals the evolution trends of key scenario elements, thereby assisting decision-makers in deploying more targeted mobilization strategies in dynamic and changing environments. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-65ba0abc4c7144f7a323f37b457b472e |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2079-8954 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
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| series | Systems |
| spelling | doaj-art-65ba0abc4c7144f7a323f37b457b472e2025-08-20T03:26:56ZengMDPI AGSystems2079-89542025-06-0113642310.3390/systems13060423Evolution Model of Emergency Material Supply Chain Stress Based on Stochastic Petri Nets—A Case Study of Emergency Medical Material Supply Chains in ChinaQiming Chen0Jihai Zhang1School of Management, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, ChinaSchool of Management, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, ChinaIn this study, we conceptualize the demands imposed on emergency supply chains during extraordinary emergency events as “stress” and develop a scenario-based stress evolution (SE) analytical approach in emergency mobilization decision-making. First, we characterize emergency supply chain stress by uncertainty, abruptness, urgency, massiveness of scale, and latency. Leveraging lifecycle theory and aligning it with the event’s natural lifecycle progression, we construct a dual-cycle model—the emergency event-stress dual-cycle curve model—to intuitively conceptualize the SE process. Second, taking China’s emergency medical supply chain as an illustrative example, we employ set theory to achieve a structured representation of emergency supply chain stress evolution (ESCSE). Third, we propose a novel ESCSE modeling methodology based on stochastic Petri nets and establish both an ESCSE model and a corresponding isomorphic Markov chain model. To address parameter uncertainties inherent in the modeling process, the fuzzy theory is integrated for parameter optimization, enabling realistic simulation of emergency supply chain stress evolution dynamics. Finally, the SE of the ibuprofen supply chain in Beijing during the COVID-19 pandemic is presented as a case study to demonstrate the working principle of the model. The results indicate that the ESCSE model effectively simulates the SE process, identifies critical states, and triggers actions. It also reveals the evolution trends of key scenario elements, thereby assisting decision-makers in deploying more targeted mobilization strategies in dynamic and changing environments.https://www.mdpi.com/2079-8954/13/6/423emergency supply chain stress evolution (ESCSE)scenario modellingstochastic Petri netemergency mobilizationemergency medical supplies |
| spellingShingle | Qiming Chen Jihai Zhang Evolution Model of Emergency Material Supply Chain Stress Based on Stochastic Petri Nets—A Case Study of Emergency Medical Material Supply Chains in China Systems emergency supply chain stress evolution (ESCSE) scenario modelling stochastic Petri net emergency mobilization emergency medical supplies |
| title | Evolution Model of Emergency Material Supply Chain Stress Based on Stochastic Petri Nets—A Case Study of Emergency Medical Material Supply Chains in China |
| title_full | Evolution Model of Emergency Material Supply Chain Stress Based on Stochastic Petri Nets—A Case Study of Emergency Medical Material Supply Chains in China |
| title_fullStr | Evolution Model of Emergency Material Supply Chain Stress Based on Stochastic Petri Nets—A Case Study of Emergency Medical Material Supply Chains in China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evolution Model of Emergency Material Supply Chain Stress Based on Stochastic Petri Nets—A Case Study of Emergency Medical Material Supply Chains in China |
| title_short | Evolution Model of Emergency Material Supply Chain Stress Based on Stochastic Petri Nets—A Case Study of Emergency Medical Material Supply Chains in China |
| title_sort | evolution model of emergency material supply chain stress based on stochastic petri nets a case study of emergency medical material supply chains in china |
| topic | emergency supply chain stress evolution (ESCSE) scenario modelling stochastic Petri net emergency mobilization emergency medical supplies |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2079-8954/13/6/423 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT qimingchen evolutionmodelofemergencymaterialsupplychainstressbasedonstochasticpetrinetsacasestudyofemergencymedicalmaterialsupplychainsinchina AT jihaizhang evolutionmodelofemergencymaterialsupplychainstressbasedonstochasticpetrinetsacasestudyofemergencymedicalmaterialsupplychainsinchina |