MODELLING NIGERIA'S URBAN AND RURAL INFLATION USING BOX-JENKINS MODEL

This is time series paper modelling Nigeria’s urban and rural inflation using monthly CPI data from January 2001 to December 2015. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change overtime in the prices of consumer items, that is, goods and services that people buy for day-to-day living...

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Main Authors: Udegbunam Edwin CHINONSO, Onu Inyanda JUSTICE
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: University of Agricultural Sciences and Veterinary Medicine, Bucharest 2016-01-01
Series:Scientific Papers Series : Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development
Online Access:https://managementjournal.usamv.ro/pdf/vol.16_4/Art10.pdf
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author Udegbunam Edwin CHINONSO
Onu Inyanda JUSTICE
author_facet Udegbunam Edwin CHINONSO
Onu Inyanda JUSTICE
author_sort Udegbunam Edwin CHINONSO
collection DOAJ
description This is time series paper modelling Nigeria’s urban and rural inflation using monthly CPI data from January 2001 to December 2015. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change overtime in the prices of consumer items, that is, goods and services that people buy for day-to-day living. Box-Jenkins ARIMA Model was used to model 180 monthly CPI data and was forecasted to 29 CPI monthly data which actually fitted with two quarterly CPI data. The model identified that the data are dependent and not identically distributed, both the mean and variance are increasing through time. ARIMA (0, 1, 0), ARIMA (0, 1, 13) were selected and proved to be correct, residuals were showing insignificant auto-correlated residual and followed a normal distribution with mean zero and constant variance. This research finds of high inflation in urban and rural areas of Nigeria which serves as an indicator to the economy situation of Nigeria.
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issn 2284-7995
2285-3952
language English
publishDate 2016-01-01
publisher University of Agricultural Sciences and Veterinary Medicine, Bucharest
record_format Article
series Scientific Papers Series : Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development
spelling doaj-art-65813cf345934c4fbfff8d5fa50a5e3a2025-08-20T03:20:36ZengUniversity of Agricultural Sciences and Veterinary Medicine, BucharestScientific Papers Series : Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development2284-79952285-39522016-01-0116461683385MODELLING NIGERIA'S URBAN AND RURAL INFLATION USING BOX-JENKINS MODELUdegbunam Edwin CHINONSOOnu Inyanda JUSTICEThis is time series paper modelling Nigeria’s urban and rural inflation using monthly CPI data from January 2001 to December 2015. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change overtime in the prices of consumer items, that is, goods and services that people buy for day-to-day living. Box-Jenkins ARIMA Model was used to model 180 monthly CPI data and was forecasted to 29 CPI monthly data which actually fitted with two quarterly CPI data. The model identified that the data are dependent and not identically distributed, both the mean and variance are increasing through time. ARIMA (0, 1, 0), ARIMA (0, 1, 13) were selected and proved to be correct, residuals were showing insignificant auto-correlated residual and followed a normal distribution with mean zero and constant variance. This research finds of high inflation in urban and rural areas of Nigeria which serves as an indicator to the economy situation of Nigeria.https://managementjournal.usamv.ro/pdf/vol.16_4/Art10.pdf
spellingShingle Udegbunam Edwin CHINONSO
Onu Inyanda JUSTICE
MODELLING NIGERIA'S URBAN AND RURAL INFLATION USING BOX-JENKINS MODEL
Scientific Papers Series : Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development
title MODELLING NIGERIA'S URBAN AND RURAL INFLATION USING BOX-JENKINS MODEL
title_full MODELLING NIGERIA'S URBAN AND RURAL INFLATION USING BOX-JENKINS MODEL
title_fullStr MODELLING NIGERIA'S URBAN AND RURAL INFLATION USING BOX-JENKINS MODEL
title_full_unstemmed MODELLING NIGERIA'S URBAN AND RURAL INFLATION USING BOX-JENKINS MODEL
title_short MODELLING NIGERIA'S URBAN AND RURAL INFLATION USING BOX-JENKINS MODEL
title_sort modelling nigeria s urban and rural inflation using box jenkins model
url https://managementjournal.usamv.ro/pdf/vol.16_4/Art10.pdf
work_keys_str_mv AT udegbunamedwinchinonso modellingnigeriasurbanandruralinflationusingboxjenkinsmodel
AT onuinyandajustice modellingnigeriasurbanandruralinflationusingboxjenkinsmodel