Assessment of Habitat Suitability and Identification of Conservation Priority Areas for Endangered Marco Polo Sheep Throughout Khunjerab National Park (Pakistan) and Tashkurgan Natural Reserve (China)
This study assesses habitat suitability and identifies conservation priority areas for the endangered Marco Polo sheep throughout Khunjerab National Park (Pakistan) and Tashkurgan Natural Reserve (China). We analyzed species occurrence records against environmental variables (elevation, slope, clima...
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2025-06-01
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| author | Ishfaq Karim Xiaodong Liu Babar Khan Tahir Kazmi |
| author_facet | Ishfaq Karim Xiaodong Liu Babar Khan Tahir Kazmi |
| author_sort | Ishfaq Karim |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study assesses habitat suitability and identifies conservation priority areas for the endangered Marco Polo sheep throughout Khunjerab National Park (Pakistan) and Tashkurgan Natural Reserve (China). We analyzed species occurrence records against environmental variables (elevation, slope, climate, land cover) using MaxEnt modeling. Model performance was validated through AUC-ROC analysis and response curves, generating spatial predictions of suitable habitats to inform conservation strategies. Spatial predictions were generated to map potential distribution zones, aiding conservation planning for this endangered species. The model’s predictive performance was evaluated using the Area Under the Curve (AUC) of the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve, yielding an AUC of 0.919, indicating strong discriminatory capability. Elevation (43.9%), slope (25.9%), and September precipitation (15.9%) emerged as the most influential environmental predictors, collectively contributing 85.7% to the model. The total percentage contribution and permutation significance values were 98.6% and 77.8%, respectively. Jackknife analysis identified elevation (bio-1), slope (bio-7), hillshade (bio-2), and the maximum July temperature (bio-9) as the most significant factors influencing the distribution of Marco Polo sheep, Conversely, variables such as viewshade (bio-14), land cover (bio-3), and precipitation in August (bio-4) contributed a minimal gain, suggesting that they had little impact on accurately predicting species distribution. The habitat suitability map reveals varying conditions across the study area, with the highest suitability (yellow zones) found in the northern and western regions, particularly along the Wakhan Corridor ridgelines. The southern regions, including Khunjerab Pass, show predominantly low suitability, marked by purple zones, suggesting poor habitat conditions. The eastern region displays moderate to low suitability, with fragmented patches of green and yellow, indicating seasonal habitats. The survival of transboundary Marco Polo sheep remains at risk due to poaching activities and habitat destruction and border fence barriers. This study recommends scientific approaches to habitat restoration together with improved China–Pakistan cooperation in order to establish sustainable migratory patterns for this iconic species. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-6579cb1de7f24967987ad82086e014f8 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2076-2615 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Animals |
| spelling | doaj-art-6579cb1de7f24967987ad82086e014f82025-08-20T03:50:16ZengMDPI AGAnimals2076-26152025-06-011513190710.3390/ani15131907Assessment of Habitat Suitability and Identification of Conservation Priority Areas for Endangered Marco Polo Sheep Throughout Khunjerab National Park (Pakistan) and Tashkurgan Natural Reserve (China)Ishfaq Karim0Xiaodong Liu1Babar Khan2Tahir Kazmi3School of Ecology and Natural Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Haidian District, Beijing 100083, ChinaSchool of Ecology and Natural Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Haidian District, Beijing 100083, ChinaInternational Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, Kathmandu 44700, NepalSchool of Forestry, Beijing Forestry University, Haidian District, Beijing 100083, ChinaThis study assesses habitat suitability and identifies conservation priority areas for the endangered Marco Polo sheep throughout Khunjerab National Park (Pakistan) and Tashkurgan Natural Reserve (China). We analyzed species occurrence records against environmental variables (elevation, slope, climate, land cover) using MaxEnt modeling. Model performance was validated through AUC-ROC analysis and response curves, generating spatial predictions of suitable habitats to inform conservation strategies. Spatial predictions were generated to map potential distribution zones, aiding conservation planning for this endangered species. The model’s predictive performance was evaluated using the Area Under the Curve (AUC) of the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve, yielding an AUC of 0.919, indicating strong discriminatory capability. Elevation (43.9%), slope (25.9%), and September precipitation (15.9%) emerged as the most influential environmental predictors, collectively contributing 85.7% to the model. The total percentage contribution and permutation significance values were 98.6% and 77.8%, respectively. Jackknife analysis identified elevation (bio-1), slope (bio-7), hillshade (bio-2), and the maximum July temperature (bio-9) as the most significant factors influencing the distribution of Marco Polo sheep, Conversely, variables such as viewshade (bio-14), land cover (bio-3), and precipitation in August (bio-4) contributed a minimal gain, suggesting that they had little impact on accurately predicting species distribution. The habitat suitability map reveals varying conditions across the study area, with the highest suitability (yellow zones) found in the northern and western regions, particularly along the Wakhan Corridor ridgelines. The southern regions, including Khunjerab Pass, show predominantly low suitability, marked by purple zones, suggesting poor habitat conditions. The eastern region displays moderate to low suitability, with fragmented patches of green and yellow, indicating seasonal habitats. The survival of transboundary Marco Polo sheep remains at risk due to poaching activities and habitat destruction and border fence barriers. This study recommends scientific approaches to habitat restoration together with improved China–Pakistan cooperation in order to establish sustainable migratory patterns for this iconic species.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-2615/15/13/1907advanced modelingclimatic datahabitat suitabilityMarco Polo sheepremote sensingtransboundary conservation |
| spellingShingle | Ishfaq Karim Xiaodong Liu Babar Khan Tahir Kazmi Assessment of Habitat Suitability and Identification of Conservation Priority Areas for Endangered Marco Polo Sheep Throughout Khunjerab National Park (Pakistan) and Tashkurgan Natural Reserve (China) Animals advanced modeling climatic data habitat suitability Marco Polo sheep remote sensing transboundary conservation |
| title | Assessment of Habitat Suitability and Identification of Conservation Priority Areas for Endangered Marco Polo Sheep Throughout Khunjerab National Park (Pakistan) and Tashkurgan Natural Reserve (China) |
| title_full | Assessment of Habitat Suitability and Identification of Conservation Priority Areas for Endangered Marco Polo Sheep Throughout Khunjerab National Park (Pakistan) and Tashkurgan Natural Reserve (China) |
| title_fullStr | Assessment of Habitat Suitability and Identification of Conservation Priority Areas for Endangered Marco Polo Sheep Throughout Khunjerab National Park (Pakistan) and Tashkurgan Natural Reserve (China) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessment of Habitat Suitability and Identification of Conservation Priority Areas for Endangered Marco Polo Sheep Throughout Khunjerab National Park (Pakistan) and Tashkurgan Natural Reserve (China) |
| title_short | Assessment of Habitat Suitability and Identification of Conservation Priority Areas for Endangered Marco Polo Sheep Throughout Khunjerab National Park (Pakistan) and Tashkurgan Natural Reserve (China) |
| title_sort | assessment of habitat suitability and identification of conservation priority areas for endangered marco polo sheep throughout khunjerab national park pakistan and tashkurgan natural reserve china |
| topic | advanced modeling climatic data habitat suitability Marco Polo sheep remote sensing transboundary conservation |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-2615/15/13/1907 |
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