Modelling the Impact of Government Policies on Import on Domestic Price of Indian Gold Using ARIMA Intervention Method

The study attempts to determine the impact of government policies of import of gold in India on the domestic price of gold during 2013 using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) intervention model. 2013 was an amazing year for Indian gold market where the price had reached its zenith. In...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Jyothi Unnikrishnan, Kodakanallur Krishnaswamy Suresh
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2016-01-01
Series:International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences
Online Access:http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/6382926
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1832551879024836608
author Jyothi Unnikrishnan
Kodakanallur Krishnaswamy Suresh
author_facet Jyothi Unnikrishnan
Kodakanallur Krishnaswamy Suresh
author_sort Jyothi Unnikrishnan
collection DOAJ
description The study attempts to determine the impact of government policies of import of gold in India on the domestic price of gold during 2013 using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) intervention model. 2013 was an amazing year for Indian gold market where the price had reached its zenith. In April 2013, to curb a record trade deficit, India imposed an import duty of 10 percent on gold and tied imports for domestic consumption to exports, creating scarce supply of the yellow metal and boosting premiums to curtail the Current Account Deficit (CAD). The objective of the paper is to model the impact of this intervention by the government on the domestic price of Indian gold. Suitable ARIMA model is fit on the preintervention period and thereafter the effects of the interventions are analysed. The results indicate that ARIMA (1,1,1) is the most suitable model during preintervention period. Intervention analysis reveals that there is significant decrease in domestic price of gold by 56% from 2013. The model may be used by policymakers to analyse the future of gold before framing regulations and policies.
format Article
id doaj-art-656238c371fd402bb4628fcded773b76
institution Kabale University
issn 0161-1712
1687-0425
language English
publishDate 2016-01-01
publisher Wiley
record_format Article
series International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences
spelling doaj-art-656238c371fd402bb4628fcded773b762025-02-03T06:00:18ZengWileyInternational Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences0161-17121687-04252016-01-01201610.1155/2016/63829266382926Modelling the Impact of Government Policies on Import on Domestic Price of Indian Gold Using ARIMA Intervention MethodJyothi Unnikrishnan0Kodakanallur Krishnaswamy Suresh1Research and Development Centre, Bharathiar University, Coimbatore 641046, IndiaDepartment of Statistics, Bharathiar University, Coimbatore 641046, IndiaThe study attempts to determine the impact of government policies of import of gold in India on the domestic price of gold during 2013 using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) intervention model. 2013 was an amazing year for Indian gold market where the price had reached its zenith. In April 2013, to curb a record trade deficit, India imposed an import duty of 10 percent on gold and tied imports for domestic consumption to exports, creating scarce supply of the yellow metal and boosting premiums to curtail the Current Account Deficit (CAD). The objective of the paper is to model the impact of this intervention by the government on the domestic price of Indian gold. Suitable ARIMA model is fit on the preintervention period and thereafter the effects of the interventions are analysed. The results indicate that ARIMA (1,1,1) is the most suitable model during preintervention period. Intervention analysis reveals that there is significant decrease in domestic price of gold by 56% from 2013. The model may be used by policymakers to analyse the future of gold before framing regulations and policies.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/6382926
spellingShingle Jyothi Unnikrishnan
Kodakanallur Krishnaswamy Suresh
Modelling the Impact of Government Policies on Import on Domestic Price of Indian Gold Using ARIMA Intervention Method
International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences
title Modelling the Impact of Government Policies on Import on Domestic Price of Indian Gold Using ARIMA Intervention Method
title_full Modelling the Impact of Government Policies on Import on Domestic Price of Indian Gold Using ARIMA Intervention Method
title_fullStr Modelling the Impact of Government Policies on Import on Domestic Price of Indian Gold Using ARIMA Intervention Method
title_full_unstemmed Modelling the Impact of Government Policies on Import on Domestic Price of Indian Gold Using ARIMA Intervention Method
title_short Modelling the Impact of Government Policies on Import on Domestic Price of Indian Gold Using ARIMA Intervention Method
title_sort modelling the impact of government policies on import on domestic price of indian gold using arima intervention method
url http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/6382926
work_keys_str_mv AT jyothiunnikrishnan modellingtheimpactofgovernmentpoliciesonimportondomesticpriceofindiangoldusingarimainterventionmethod
AT kodakanallurkrishnaswamysuresh modellingtheimpactofgovernmentpoliciesonimportondomesticpriceofindiangoldusingarimainterventionmethod