Comparing the Trends of Vector-Borne Diseases (VBDs) before and after the COVID-19 Pandemic and Their Spatial Distribution in Southern Iran
Objectives. We aimed to model and predict the changes in the trend of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) before and after the COVID-19 pandemic in a high-risk area of Iran. Methods. This case-series study was conducted in Fars province, south of Iran, between April 2016 and July 2021. All referred cases o...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Journal of Tropical Medicine |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2023/7697421 |
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| author | Zahra Gheibi Mitra Boroomand Aboozar Soltani |
| author_facet | Zahra Gheibi Mitra Boroomand Aboozar Soltani |
| author_sort | Zahra Gheibi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Objectives. We aimed to model and predict the changes in the trend of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) before and after the COVID-19 pandemic in a high-risk area of Iran. Methods. This case-series study was conducted in Fars province, south of Iran, between April 2016 and July 2021. All referred cases of VBDs were considered during the five years to investigate the effect of the lockdown on the epidemiological profile of these diseases. We used time-series autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) models. Results. Pediculosis incidence trend was rising with a peak of 1,146 per 100,000 in 2018, followed by a dramatic decrease reached to the minimum amount of 157.8 per 100,000 in 2021. In contrast, malaria and scabies had a smooth decreasing trend ranging from 2.2 per 100,000 and 7.3 per 100,000 in 2016 to a minimum of 0.2 per 100,000 in 2021, respectively. Likewise, leishmaniasis had a falling trend, with a maximum rate of 82.9 per 100,000 in 2016 to the lowest rate of 9.4 per 100,000 in 2021. However, the difference between observed and expected values revealed that the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic had increased the number of leishmaniasis cases. Conclusion. Tropical regions of Iran, including Fars province, are the favorite destinations for travelers. During COVID-19 outbreaks, some reasons, such as quarantine, movement restrictions, and social distancing, reduced human-vector contact and finally led to the reduction of VBDs in this area. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-6552fd1c82624bdc997daa7cda867849 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1687-9694 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Tropical Medicine |
| spelling | doaj-art-6552fd1c82624bdc997daa7cda8678492025-02-03T01:29:49ZengWileyJournal of Tropical Medicine1687-96942023-01-01202310.1155/2023/7697421Comparing the Trends of Vector-Borne Diseases (VBDs) before and after the COVID-19 Pandemic and Their Spatial Distribution in Southern IranZahra Gheibi0Mitra Boroomand1Aboozar Soltani2Department of EpidemiologyDepartment of Medical Entomology and Vector ControlResearch Center for Health SciencesObjectives. We aimed to model and predict the changes in the trend of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) before and after the COVID-19 pandemic in a high-risk area of Iran. Methods. This case-series study was conducted in Fars province, south of Iran, between April 2016 and July 2021. All referred cases of VBDs were considered during the five years to investigate the effect of the lockdown on the epidemiological profile of these diseases. We used time-series autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) models. Results. Pediculosis incidence trend was rising with a peak of 1,146 per 100,000 in 2018, followed by a dramatic decrease reached to the minimum amount of 157.8 per 100,000 in 2021. In contrast, malaria and scabies had a smooth decreasing trend ranging from 2.2 per 100,000 and 7.3 per 100,000 in 2016 to a minimum of 0.2 per 100,000 in 2021, respectively. Likewise, leishmaniasis had a falling trend, with a maximum rate of 82.9 per 100,000 in 2016 to the lowest rate of 9.4 per 100,000 in 2021. However, the difference between observed and expected values revealed that the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic had increased the number of leishmaniasis cases. Conclusion. Tropical regions of Iran, including Fars province, are the favorite destinations for travelers. During COVID-19 outbreaks, some reasons, such as quarantine, movement restrictions, and social distancing, reduced human-vector contact and finally led to the reduction of VBDs in this area.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2023/7697421 |
| spellingShingle | Zahra Gheibi Mitra Boroomand Aboozar Soltani Comparing the Trends of Vector-Borne Diseases (VBDs) before and after the COVID-19 Pandemic and Their Spatial Distribution in Southern Iran Journal of Tropical Medicine |
| title | Comparing the Trends of Vector-Borne Diseases (VBDs) before and after the COVID-19 Pandemic and Their Spatial Distribution in Southern Iran |
| title_full | Comparing the Trends of Vector-Borne Diseases (VBDs) before and after the COVID-19 Pandemic and Their Spatial Distribution in Southern Iran |
| title_fullStr | Comparing the Trends of Vector-Borne Diseases (VBDs) before and after the COVID-19 Pandemic and Their Spatial Distribution in Southern Iran |
| title_full_unstemmed | Comparing the Trends of Vector-Borne Diseases (VBDs) before and after the COVID-19 Pandemic and Their Spatial Distribution in Southern Iran |
| title_short | Comparing the Trends of Vector-Borne Diseases (VBDs) before and after the COVID-19 Pandemic and Their Spatial Distribution in Southern Iran |
| title_sort | comparing the trends of vector borne diseases vbds before and after the covid 19 pandemic and their spatial distribution in southern iran |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2023/7697421 |
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