Future Freshwater Fluxes From the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Abstract Surface freshening of the Southern Ocean driven by meltwater discharge from the Antarctic ice sheet has been shown to influence global climate dynamics. However, most climate models fail to account for spatially and temporally varying freshwater inputs from ice sheets, introducing significa...

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Main Authors: Violaine Coulon, Jan De Rydt, Thomas Gregov, Qing Qin, Frank Pattyn
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2024-12-01
Series:Geophysical Research Letters
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111250
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author Violaine Coulon
Jan De Rydt
Thomas Gregov
Qing Qin
Frank Pattyn
author_facet Violaine Coulon
Jan De Rydt
Thomas Gregov
Qing Qin
Frank Pattyn
author_sort Violaine Coulon
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Surface freshening of the Southern Ocean driven by meltwater discharge from the Antarctic ice sheet has been shown to influence global climate dynamics. However, most climate models fail to account for spatially and temporally varying freshwater inputs from ice sheets, introducing significant uncertainty into climate projections. We present the first historically calibrated projections of Antarctic freshwater fluxes (sub‐shelf melting, calving, and surface meltwater runoff) to 2300 that can be used to force climate models lacking interactive ice sheets. Our findings indicate substantial changes in the magnitude and partitioning of Antarctic freshwater discharge over the coming decades and centuries, particularly under very‐high warming scenarios, driven by the progressive collapse of the West Antarctic ice shelves. We project a shift in the form and location of Antarctic freshwater sources, as liquid sub‐shelf melting increases under the two climate scenarios considered, and surface meltwater runoff could potentially become a dominant contributor under extreme atmospheric warming.
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institution Kabale University
issn 0094-8276
1944-8007
language English
publishDate 2024-12-01
publisher Wiley
record_format Article
series Geophysical Research Letters
spelling doaj-art-65280bc2c39b4970ab15e721bc71bb3d2025-08-20T03:25:55ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072024-12-015123n/an/a10.1029/2024GL111250Future Freshwater Fluxes From the Antarctic Ice SheetViolaine Coulon0Jan De Rydt1Thomas Gregov2Qing Qin3Frank Pattyn4Laboratoire de Glaciologie Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB) Brussels BelgiumDepartment of Geography and Environmental Sciences Northumbria University Newcastle UKLaboratoire de Glaciologie Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB) Brussels BelgiumDepartment of Geography and Environmental Sciences Northumbria University Newcastle UKLaboratoire de Glaciologie Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB) Brussels BelgiumAbstract Surface freshening of the Southern Ocean driven by meltwater discharge from the Antarctic ice sheet has been shown to influence global climate dynamics. However, most climate models fail to account for spatially and temporally varying freshwater inputs from ice sheets, introducing significant uncertainty into climate projections. We present the first historically calibrated projections of Antarctic freshwater fluxes (sub‐shelf melting, calving, and surface meltwater runoff) to 2300 that can be used to force climate models lacking interactive ice sheets. Our findings indicate substantial changes in the magnitude and partitioning of Antarctic freshwater discharge over the coming decades and centuries, particularly under very‐high warming scenarios, driven by the progressive collapse of the West Antarctic ice shelves. We project a shift in the form and location of Antarctic freshwater sources, as liquid sub‐shelf melting increases under the two climate scenarios considered, and surface meltwater runoff could potentially become a dominant contributor under extreme atmospheric warming.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111250Antarctic ice sheetfreshwater fluxsouthern oceanmodeling
spellingShingle Violaine Coulon
Jan De Rydt
Thomas Gregov
Qing Qin
Frank Pattyn
Future Freshwater Fluxes From the Antarctic Ice Sheet
Geophysical Research Letters
Antarctic ice sheet
freshwater flux
southern ocean
modeling
title Future Freshwater Fluxes From the Antarctic Ice Sheet
title_full Future Freshwater Fluxes From the Antarctic Ice Sheet
title_fullStr Future Freshwater Fluxes From the Antarctic Ice Sheet
title_full_unstemmed Future Freshwater Fluxes From the Antarctic Ice Sheet
title_short Future Freshwater Fluxes From the Antarctic Ice Sheet
title_sort future freshwater fluxes from the antarctic ice sheet
topic Antarctic ice sheet
freshwater flux
southern ocean
modeling
url https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111250
work_keys_str_mv AT violainecoulon futurefreshwaterfluxesfromtheantarcticicesheet
AT janderydt futurefreshwaterfluxesfromtheantarcticicesheet
AT thomasgregov futurefreshwaterfluxesfromtheantarcticicesheet
AT qingqin futurefreshwaterfluxesfromtheantarcticicesheet
AT frankpattyn futurefreshwaterfluxesfromtheantarcticicesheet