Future Freshwater Fluxes From the Antarctic Ice Sheet
Abstract Surface freshening of the Southern Ocean driven by meltwater discharge from the Antarctic ice sheet has been shown to influence global climate dynamics. However, most climate models fail to account for spatially and temporally varying freshwater inputs from ice sheets, introducing significa...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111250 |
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| author | Violaine Coulon Jan De Rydt Thomas Gregov Qing Qin Frank Pattyn |
| author_facet | Violaine Coulon Jan De Rydt Thomas Gregov Qing Qin Frank Pattyn |
| author_sort | Violaine Coulon |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Surface freshening of the Southern Ocean driven by meltwater discharge from the Antarctic ice sheet has been shown to influence global climate dynamics. However, most climate models fail to account for spatially and temporally varying freshwater inputs from ice sheets, introducing significant uncertainty into climate projections. We present the first historically calibrated projections of Antarctic freshwater fluxes (sub‐shelf melting, calving, and surface meltwater runoff) to 2300 that can be used to force climate models lacking interactive ice sheets. Our findings indicate substantial changes in the magnitude and partitioning of Antarctic freshwater discharge over the coming decades and centuries, particularly under very‐high warming scenarios, driven by the progressive collapse of the West Antarctic ice shelves. We project a shift in the form and location of Antarctic freshwater sources, as liquid sub‐shelf melting increases under the two climate scenarios considered, and surface meltwater runoff could potentially become a dominant contributor under extreme atmospheric warming. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-65280bc2c39b4970ab15e721bc71bb3d |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-65280bc2c39b4970ab15e721bc71bb3d2025-08-20T03:25:55ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072024-12-015123n/an/a10.1029/2024GL111250Future Freshwater Fluxes From the Antarctic Ice SheetViolaine Coulon0Jan De Rydt1Thomas Gregov2Qing Qin3Frank Pattyn4Laboratoire de Glaciologie Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB) Brussels BelgiumDepartment of Geography and Environmental Sciences Northumbria University Newcastle UKLaboratoire de Glaciologie Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB) Brussels BelgiumDepartment of Geography and Environmental Sciences Northumbria University Newcastle UKLaboratoire de Glaciologie Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB) Brussels BelgiumAbstract Surface freshening of the Southern Ocean driven by meltwater discharge from the Antarctic ice sheet has been shown to influence global climate dynamics. However, most climate models fail to account for spatially and temporally varying freshwater inputs from ice sheets, introducing significant uncertainty into climate projections. We present the first historically calibrated projections of Antarctic freshwater fluxes (sub‐shelf melting, calving, and surface meltwater runoff) to 2300 that can be used to force climate models lacking interactive ice sheets. Our findings indicate substantial changes in the magnitude and partitioning of Antarctic freshwater discharge over the coming decades and centuries, particularly under very‐high warming scenarios, driven by the progressive collapse of the West Antarctic ice shelves. We project a shift in the form and location of Antarctic freshwater sources, as liquid sub‐shelf melting increases under the two climate scenarios considered, and surface meltwater runoff could potentially become a dominant contributor under extreme atmospheric warming.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111250Antarctic ice sheetfreshwater fluxsouthern oceanmodeling |
| spellingShingle | Violaine Coulon Jan De Rydt Thomas Gregov Qing Qin Frank Pattyn Future Freshwater Fluxes From the Antarctic Ice Sheet Geophysical Research Letters Antarctic ice sheet freshwater flux southern ocean modeling |
| title | Future Freshwater Fluxes From the Antarctic Ice Sheet |
| title_full | Future Freshwater Fluxes From the Antarctic Ice Sheet |
| title_fullStr | Future Freshwater Fluxes From the Antarctic Ice Sheet |
| title_full_unstemmed | Future Freshwater Fluxes From the Antarctic Ice Sheet |
| title_short | Future Freshwater Fluxes From the Antarctic Ice Sheet |
| title_sort | future freshwater fluxes from the antarctic ice sheet |
| topic | Antarctic ice sheet freshwater flux southern ocean modeling |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111250 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT violainecoulon futurefreshwaterfluxesfromtheantarcticicesheet AT janderydt futurefreshwaterfluxesfromtheantarcticicesheet AT thomasgregov futurefreshwaterfluxesfromtheantarcticicesheet AT qingqin futurefreshwaterfluxesfromtheantarcticicesheet AT frankpattyn futurefreshwaterfluxesfromtheantarcticicesheet |