The effects of climate change on EO/IR propagation using CMIP6 global atmospheric forecasting simulations

Abstract Climate change-driven atmospheric effects are of particular concern to those who operate electro-optic and infrared (EO/IR) sensors, as atmospheric constituents such as water vapor, carbon dioxide, and aerosols drive the absorption and scattering effects necessary to characterize deployed o...

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Main Authors: Parker Coye, Adam Willitsford
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-04-01
Series:Scientific Reports
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-99306-z
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author Parker Coye
Adam Willitsford
author_facet Parker Coye
Adam Willitsford
author_sort Parker Coye
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Climate change-driven atmospheric effects are of particular concern to those who operate electro-optic and infrared (EO/IR) sensors, as atmospheric constituents such as water vapor, carbon dioxide, and aerosols drive the absorption and scattering effects necessary to characterize deployed optical system performance. Current models of EO/IR propagation are fed by statistics built off the historical state of the atmosphere by utilizing ground based observations, satellite data, or reanalysis datasets. Such methods are effective at characterizing EO/IR propagation for historical time periods, but do little to inform decisions related to future sensor deployment. This work utilizes future projections of atmospheric variables from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), an international collection of climate models, to characterize atmospheric transmittance, a metric closely tied to EO/IR performance. Analysis of regional transmittance (particularly in the long-wave infrared) reveals drops by as much as 20% from 2015-2100 for a path as short as 2 km - this is nearly a doubling of the band averaged extinction coefficient.
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spelling doaj-art-64fea2332e304e82adcd99f73bd012522025-08-20T03:14:07ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-04-0115111110.1038/s41598-025-99306-zThe effects of climate change on EO/IR propagation using CMIP6 global atmospheric forecasting simulationsParker Coye0Adam Willitsford1Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics LabJohns Hopkins University Applied Physics LabAbstract Climate change-driven atmospheric effects are of particular concern to those who operate electro-optic and infrared (EO/IR) sensors, as atmospheric constituents such as water vapor, carbon dioxide, and aerosols drive the absorption and scattering effects necessary to characterize deployed optical system performance. Current models of EO/IR propagation are fed by statistics built off the historical state of the atmosphere by utilizing ground based observations, satellite data, or reanalysis datasets. Such methods are effective at characterizing EO/IR propagation for historical time periods, but do little to inform decisions related to future sensor deployment. This work utilizes future projections of atmospheric variables from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), an international collection of climate models, to characterize atmospheric transmittance, a metric closely tied to EO/IR performance. Analysis of regional transmittance (particularly in the long-wave infrared) reveals drops by as much as 20% from 2015-2100 for a path as short as 2 km - this is nearly a doubling of the band averaged extinction coefficient.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-99306-zClimate changeEO/IRTransmissionMODTRANCMIP6
spellingShingle Parker Coye
Adam Willitsford
The effects of climate change on EO/IR propagation using CMIP6 global atmospheric forecasting simulations
Scientific Reports
Climate change
EO/IR
Transmission
MODTRAN
CMIP6
title The effects of climate change on EO/IR propagation using CMIP6 global atmospheric forecasting simulations
title_full The effects of climate change on EO/IR propagation using CMIP6 global atmospheric forecasting simulations
title_fullStr The effects of climate change on EO/IR propagation using CMIP6 global atmospheric forecasting simulations
title_full_unstemmed The effects of climate change on EO/IR propagation using CMIP6 global atmospheric forecasting simulations
title_short The effects of climate change on EO/IR propagation using CMIP6 global atmospheric forecasting simulations
title_sort effects of climate change on eo ir propagation using cmip6 global atmospheric forecasting simulations
topic Climate change
EO/IR
Transmission
MODTRAN
CMIP6
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-99306-z
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