Climate Change: A Major Factor in the Spread of <i>Aedes aegypti</i> (Diptera: Culicidae) and Its Associated Dengue Virus
Climate change is thought to be responsible for the spread of various vector-borne diseases. The current study was conducted to evaluate the impact of different temperature and relative humidity regimes on the developmental stages of the yellow fever mosquito, <i>Aedes aegypti</i> (Dipte...
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2025-05-01
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| author | Shahid Majeed Waseem Akram Muhammad Sufyan Asim Abbasi Sidra Riaz Shahla Faisal Muhammad Binyameen Muhammad I. Bashir Shahzad Hassan Saba Zafar Oksana Kucher Elena A. Piven Olga D. Kucher |
| author_facet | Shahid Majeed Waseem Akram Muhammad Sufyan Asim Abbasi Sidra Riaz Shahla Faisal Muhammad Binyameen Muhammad I. Bashir Shahzad Hassan Saba Zafar Oksana Kucher Elena A. Piven Olga D. Kucher |
| author_sort | Shahid Majeed |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change is thought to be responsible for the spread of various vector-borne diseases. The current study was conducted to evaluate the impact of different temperature and relative humidity regimes on the developmental stages of the yellow fever mosquito, <i>Aedes aegypti</i> (Diptera: Culicidae). The study also evaluated the impact of larval density on the survival of <i>Ae. aegypti</i>. In addition, the association between vector larval abundance, dengue incidence, and climatic factors were elucidated during 2016–2019 in three populated districts of Punjab, Pakistan, i.e., Lahore, Rawalpindi, and Multan. The results of the study revealed that at 10 °C and 35 °C, egg hatching and adult emergence were significantly reduced, regardless of the relative humidity. In contrast, at 20 °C and 30 °C, the rates of egg and adult survival increased with higher relative humidity. In addition, a density-dependent response was observed regarding larval survival of <i>Ae. aegypti</i>. Moreover, larval incidence was positively correlated with the number of dengue patients, Tmax, RH, and precipitation at Lahore (0.55, 0.23, 0.29, and 0.13), Rawalpindi (0.90, 0.30, 0.21, and 0.14), and Multan (0.05, 0.27, and 0.13) respectively, except in Multan, where a negative correlation (−0.09) with precipitation was observed. The inflow of patients had a positive correlation with the occurrence of a larval population, relative humidity, and precipitation at Lahore, Rawalpindi, and Multan districts, with the scale values of 0.55, 0.25, and 0.16; 0.90, 0.22, and 0.03; and 0.05, 0.06, and 0.03, respectively. In addition, a forecast model, ARIMA, predicted that there was a higher rate of larval occurrence in Rawalpindi, followed by Lahore. This study concluded that the role of precipitation > 200 mm prior to a 1–2-month lag, a 20–30 °C temperature range, and an RH exceeding 60% lead to the occurrence of larvae and dengue case spikes. This study will help to reinforce dengue surveillance and control strategies in Pakistan and to establish early management strategies based on changing climatic factors. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-64dae63b41f34850a95c2c0a2e570c1b |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2075-4450 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-05-01 |
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| spelling | doaj-art-64dae63b41f34850a95c2c0a2e570c1b2025-08-20T02:34:01ZengMDPI AGInsects2075-44502025-05-0116551310.3390/insects16050513Climate Change: A Major Factor in the Spread of <i>Aedes aegypti</i> (Diptera: Culicidae) and Its Associated Dengue VirusShahid Majeed0Waseem Akram1Muhammad Sufyan2Asim Abbasi3Sidra Riaz4Shahla Faisal5Muhammad Binyameen6Muhammad I. Bashir7Shahzad Hassan8Saba Zafar9Oksana Kucher10Elena A. Piven11Olga D. Kucher12Department of Entomology, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad 38040, PakistanDepartment of Entomology, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad 38040, PakistanDepartment of Entomology, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad 38040, PakistanDepartment of Entomology, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad 38040, PakistanDistrict Head Quarter (DHQ), Faisalabad 38040, PakistanDepartment of Statistics and Center of Data Science, Government College University, Faisalabad 38040, PakistanDepartment of Entomology, Faculty of Agricultural Sciences & Technology, Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan 60800, PakistanEpidemic Prevention and Control Program, Directorate General Health Services Punjab, Lahore 54000, PakistanEpidemic Prevention and Control Program, Directorate General Health Services Punjab, Lahore 54000, PakistanDepartment of Biochemistry and Biotechnology, The Women University Multan, Multan 66000, PakistanCollege of Naturopathic Medicine, East Grinstead, West Sussex RH19 4LZ, UKPublic Health, Health and Hygiene, RUDN University, 6 Miklukho-Maklaya St., 117198 Moscow, RussiaDepartment of Environmental Management, Institute of Environmental Engineering, RUDN University, 6 Miklukho-Maklaya St., 117198 Moscow, RussiaClimate change is thought to be responsible for the spread of various vector-borne diseases. The current study was conducted to evaluate the impact of different temperature and relative humidity regimes on the developmental stages of the yellow fever mosquito, <i>Aedes aegypti</i> (Diptera: Culicidae). The study also evaluated the impact of larval density on the survival of <i>Ae. aegypti</i>. In addition, the association between vector larval abundance, dengue incidence, and climatic factors were elucidated during 2016–2019 in three populated districts of Punjab, Pakistan, i.e., Lahore, Rawalpindi, and Multan. The results of the study revealed that at 10 °C and 35 °C, egg hatching and adult emergence were significantly reduced, regardless of the relative humidity. In contrast, at 20 °C and 30 °C, the rates of egg and adult survival increased with higher relative humidity. In addition, a density-dependent response was observed regarding larval survival of <i>Ae. aegypti</i>. Moreover, larval incidence was positively correlated with the number of dengue patients, Tmax, RH, and precipitation at Lahore (0.55, 0.23, 0.29, and 0.13), Rawalpindi (0.90, 0.30, 0.21, and 0.14), and Multan (0.05, 0.27, and 0.13) respectively, except in Multan, where a negative correlation (−0.09) with precipitation was observed. The inflow of patients had a positive correlation with the occurrence of a larval population, relative humidity, and precipitation at Lahore, Rawalpindi, and Multan districts, with the scale values of 0.55, 0.25, and 0.16; 0.90, 0.22, and 0.03; and 0.05, 0.06, and 0.03, respectively. In addition, a forecast model, ARIMA, predicted that there was a higher rate of larval occurrence in Rawalpindi, followed by Lahore. This study concluded that the role of precipitation > 200 mm prior to a 1–2-month lag, a 20–30 °C temperature range, and an RH exceeding 60% lead to the occurrence of larvae and dengue case spikes. This study will help to reinforce dengue surveillance and control strategies in Pakistan and to establish early management strategies based on changing climatic factors.https://www.mdpi.com/2075-4450/16/5/513climatemosquitoesdenguemeteorological variablesdevelopmental periodpopulation dynamics |
| spellingShingle | Shahid Majeed Waseem Akram Muhammad Sufyan Asim Abbasi Sidra Riaz Shahla Faisal Muhammad Binyameen Muhammad I. Bashir Shahzad Hassan Saba Zafar Oksana Kucher Elena A. Piven Olga D. Kucher Climate Change: A Major Factor in the Spread of <i>Aedes aegypti</i> (Diptera: Culicidae) and Its Associated Dengue Virus Insects climate mosquitoes dengue meteorological variables developmental period population dynamics |
| title | Climate Change: A Major Factor in the Spread of <i>Aedes aegypti</i> (Diptera: Culicidae) and Its Associated Dengue Virus |
| title_full | Climate Change: A Major Factor in the Spread of <i>Aedes aegypti</i> (Diptera: Culicidae) and Its Associated Dengue Virus |
| title_fullStr | Climate Change: A Major Factor in the Spread of <i>Aedes aegypti</i> (Diptera: Culicidae) and Its Associated Dengue Virus |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate Change: A Major Factor in the Spread of <i>Aedes aegypti</i> (Diptera: Culicidae) and Its Associated Dengue Virus |
| title_short | Climate Change: A Major Factor in the Spread of <i>Aedes aegypti</i> (Diptera: Culicidae) and Its Associated Dengue Virus |
| title_sort | climate change a major factor in the spread of i aedes aegypti i diptera culicidae and its associated dengue virus |
| topic | climate mosquitoes dengue meteorological variables developmental period population dynamics |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2075-4450/16/5/513 |
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