Quantitative method for network security situation based on attack prediction

To predict the attack behaviors accurately and comprehensively as well as to quantify the threat of attack,a quantitative method for network security situation based on attack prediction was proposed.By fusing the situation factors of attacker,defender and network environment,the capability of attac...

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Main Authors: Hao HU, Run-guo YE, Hong-qi ZHANG, Ying-jie YANG, Yu-ling LIU
Format: Article
Language:zho
Published: Editorial Department of Journal on Communications 2017-10-01
Series:Tongxin xuebao
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Online Access:http://www.joconline.com.cn/zh/article/doi/10.11959/j.issn.1000-436x.2017204/
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author Hao HU
Run-guo YE
Hong-qi ZHANG
Ying-jie YANG
Yu-ling LIU
author_facet Hao HU
Run-guo YE
Hong-qi ZHANG
Ying-jie YANG
Yu-ling LIU
author_sort Hao HU
collection DOAJ
description To predict the attack behaviors accurately and comprehensively as well as to quantify the threat of attack,a quantitative method for network security situation based on attack prediction was proposed.By fusing the situation factors of attacker,defender and network environment,the capability of attacker and the exploitability rate of vulnerability were evaluated utilizing the real-time detected attack events,and the expected time-cost for attack-defense were further calculated.Then an attack prediction algorithm based on the dynamic Bayesian attack graph was designed to infer the follow-up attack actions.At last,the attack threat was quantified as the security risk situation from two levels of the hosts and the overall network.Experimental analysis indicates that the proposed method is suitable for the real adversarial network environment,and is able to predict the occurrence time of attack accurately and quantify the attack threat reasonably.
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issn 1000-436X
language zho
publishDate 2017-10-01
publisher Editorial Department of Journal on Communications
record_format Article
series Tongxin xuebao
spelling doaj-art-64cafb106cf74ee597d7e88c83f1ecc62025-08-20T02:35:08ZzhoEditorial Department of Journal on CommunicationsTongxin xuebao1000-436X2017-10-013812213459712902Quantitative method for network security situation based on attack predictionHao HURun-guo YEHong-qi ZHANGYing-jie YANGYu-ling LIUTo predict the attack behaviors accurately and comprehensively as well as to quantify the threat of attack,a quantitative method for network security situation based on attack prediction was proposed.By fusing the situation factors of attacker,defender and network environment,the capability of attacker and the exploitability rate of vulnerability were evaluated utilizing the real-time detected attack events,and the expected time-cost for attack-defense were further calculated.Then an attack prediction algorithm based on the dynamic Bayesian attack graph was designed to infer the follow-up attack actions.At last,the attack threat was quantified as the security risk situation from two levels of the hosts and the overall network.Experimental analysis indicates that the proposed method is suitable for the real adversarial network environment,and is able to predict the occurrence time of attack accurately and quantify the attack threat reasonably.http://www.joconline.com.cn/zh/article/doi/10.11959/j.issn.1000-436x.2017204/attack predictionsecurity situationBayesian attack graphattack-defensetime prediction
spellingShingle Hao HU
Run-guo YE
Hong-qi ZHANG
Ying-jie YANG
Yu-ling LIU
Quantitative method for network security situation based on attack prediction
Tongxin xuebao
attack prediction
security situation
Bayesian attack graph
attack-defense
time prediction
title Quantitative method for network security situation based on attack prediction
title_full Quantitative method for network security situation based on attack prediction
title_fullStr Quantitative method for network security situation based on attack prediction
title_full_unstemmed Quantitative method for network security situation based on attack prediction
title_short Quantitative method for network security situation based on attack prediction
title_sort quantitative method for network security situation based on attack prediction
topic attack prediction
security situation
Bayesian attack graph
attack-defense
time prediction
url http://www.joconline.com.cn/zh/article/doi/10.11959/j.issn.1000-436x.2017204/
work_keys_str_mv AT haohu quantitativemethodfornetworksecuritysituationbasedonattackprediction
AT runguoye quantitativemethodfornetworksecuritysituationbasedonattackprediction
AT hongqizhang quantitativemethodfornetworksecuritysituationbasedonattackprediction
AT yingjieyang quantitativemethodfornetworksecuritysituationbasedonattackprediction
AT yulingliu quantitativemethodfornetworksecuritysituationbasedonattackprediction