Methodology to Forecast Road Surface Temperature with Principal Components Analysis and Partial Least-Square Regression: Application to an Urban Configuration

A forecast road surface temperature (RST) helps winter services to optimize costs and to reduce the deicers environmental impacts. Data from road weather information systems (RWIS) and thermal mapping are considered inputs for forecasting physical numerical models. Statistical models include many me...

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Main Authors: M. Marchetti, A. Khalifa, M. Bues
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2015-01-01
Series:Advances in Meteorology
Online Access:http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/562621
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author M. Marchetti
A. Khalifa
M. Bues
author_facet M. Marchetti
A. Khalifa
M. Bues
author_sort M. Marchetti
collection DOAJ
description A forecast road surface temperature (RST) helps winter services to optimize costs and to reduce the deicers environmental impacts. Data from road weather information systems (RWIS) and thermal mapping are considered inputs for forecasting physical numerical models. Statistical models include many meteorological parameters along routes and provide a spatial approach. It is based on typical combinations resulting from treatment and analysis of a database from measurements of road weather stations or thermal mapping, easy, reliable, and cost effective to monitor RST, and many meteorological parameters. A forecast dedicated to road networks should combine both spatial and time forecasts needs. This study contributed to building a reliable RST forecast based on principal component analysis (PCA) and partial least-square (PLS) regression. An urban stretch with various weather conditions and seasons was monitored over several months to generate an appropriate number of samples. The study first consisted of the identification of its optimum number to establish a reliable forecast. A second aspect is aimed at comparing RST forecasts from PLS model to measurements. Comparison indicated a forecast over an urban stretch with up to 94% of values within ±1°C and over 80% within ±3°C.
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spelling doaj-art-64bdc7945aa9453b8a6229569d826a4d2025-08-20T02:06:40ZengWileyAdvances in Meteorology1687-93091687-93172015-01-01201510.1155/2015/562621562621Methodology to Forecast Road Surface Temperature with Principal Components Analysis and Partial Least-Square Regression: Application to an Urban ConfigurationM. Marchetti0A. Khalifa1M. Bues2Cerema, DTer Est, ERA 31, 54510 Tomblaine, FranceCerema, DTer Est, ERA 31, 54510 Tomblaine, FranceUMR GeoRessources, Université de Lorraine, 54000 Nancy, FranceA forecast road surface temperature (RST) helps winter services to optimize costs and to reduce the deicers environmental impacts. Data from road weather information systems (RWIS) and thermal mapping are considered inputs for forecasting physical numerical models. Statistical models include many meteorological parameters along routes and provide a spatial approach. It is based on typical combinations resulting from treatment and analysis of a database from measurements of road weather stations or thermal mapping, easy, reliable, and cost effective to monitor RST, and many meteorological parameters. A forecast dedicated to road networks should combine both spatial and time forecasts needs. This study contributed to building a reliable RST forecast based on principal component analysis (PCA) and partial least-square (PLS) regression. An urban stretch with various weather conditions and seasons was monitored over several months to generate an appropriate number of samples. The study first consisted of the identification of its optimum number to establish a reliable forecast. A second aspect is aimed at comparing RST forecasts from PLS model to measurements. Comparison indicated a forecast over an urban stretch with up to 94% of values within ±1°C and over 80% within ±3°C.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/562621
spellingShingle M. Marchetti
A. Khalifa
M. Bues
Methodology to Forecast Road Surface Temperature with Principal Components Analysis and Partial Least-Square Regression: Application to an Urban Configuration
Advances in Meteorology
title Methodology to Forecast Road Surface Temperature with Principal Components Analysis and Partial Least-Square Regression: Application to an Urban Configuration
title_full Methodology to Forecast Road Surface Temperature with Principal Components Analysis and Partial Least-Square Regression: Application to an Urban Configuration
title_fullStr Methodology to Forecast Road Surface Temperature with Principal Components Analysis and Partial Least-Square Regression: Application to an Urban Configuration
title_full_unstemmed Methodology to Forecast Road Surface Temperature with Principal Components Analysis and Partial Least-Square Regression: Application to an Urban Configuration
title_short Methodology to Forecast Road Surface Temperature with Principal Components Analysis and Partial Least-Square Regression: Application to an Urban Configuration
title_sort methodology to forecast road surface temperature with principal components analysis and partial least square regression application to an urban configuration
url http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/562621
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AT mbues methodologytoforecastroadsurfacetemperaturewithprincipalcomponentsanalysisandpartialleastsquareregressionapplicationtoanurbanconfiguration