Machine learning models for estimating fetal weight based on ultrasonographic biometry: Development and validation study
Background Advances in machine learning (ML) offer an innovative approach to accurate fetal weight estimation by integrating multiple biometric and clinical variables. Objective To develop and validate ML models for estimating fetal weight using biometric data obtained via ultrasonography, evaluatin...
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SAGE Publishing
2025-05-01
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| Series: | Digital Health |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1177/20552076251342012 |
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| author | Marcos Espinola-Sánchez Antonio Limay-Rios Andrés Campaña-Acuña Silvia Sanca-Valeriano |
| author_facet | Marcos Espinola-Sánchez Antonio Limay-Rios Andrés Campaña-Acuña Silvia Sanca-Valeriano |
| author_sort | Marcos Espinola-Sánchez |
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| description | Background Advances in machine learning (ML) offer an innovative approach to accurate fetal weight estimation by integrating multiple biometric and clinical variables. Objective To develop and validate ML models for estimating fetal weight using biometric data obtained via ultrasonography, evaluating their accuracy and comparing them with traditional formulas, such as Hadlock and Shepard. Methods A retrospective observational study was conducted at the National Maternal Perinatal Institute of Peru from 2009 to 2022, including 3525 low-risk pregnancies with singleton gestations. ML models, including Gradient Boosting, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest and TabPFN (Tabular Prior-data Fitted Network), were trained and validated using ultrasonographic measurements such as biparietal diameter, abdominal circumference, head circumference, femur length, and gestational age. Accuracy was assessed using the coefficient of determination ( R ²) and mean squared error (MSE), comparing the ML models to the Hadlock and Shepard formulas. Results Data from the first study stage (2009–2018) indicated that the TabPFN model was the most accurate ( R ² = 0.856; MSE = 0.146), outperforming the Hadlock ( R ² = 0.807; MSE = 0.195) and Shepard ( R ² = 0.801; MSE = 0.201) formulas. In the independent validation sample (2019–2022), TabPFN consistently outperformed other methods ( R ² = 0.873; MSE = 0.144). Model consistency was evaluated through cross-validation and randomization of samples. Conclusions The TabPFN model outperformed traditional formulas, including Hadlock and Shepard, and other evaluated machine learning methods in estimating fetal weight. Its high predictive accuracy, robustness across temporally distinct cohorts, and independence from hyperparameter tuning support its potential as a reliable clinical decision-support tool in obstetric care. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-64b2e543364442ad94cf679259ce08e4 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2055-2076 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-05-01 |
| publisher | SAGE Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Digital Health |
| spelling | doaj-art-64b2e543364442ad94cf679259ce08e42025-08-20T03:49:40ZengSAGE PublishingDigital Health2055-20762025-05-011110.1177/20552076251342012Machine learning models for estimating fetal weight based on ultrasonographic biometry: Development and validation studyMarcos Espinola-Sánchez0Antonio Limay-Rios1Andrés Campaña-Acuña2Silvia Sanca-Valeriano3 Centro de Innovación e Investigación Traslacional en Salud (CIITSalud), , Lima, Peru , Lima, Peru , Lima, Peru , Lima, PeruBackground Advances in machine learning (ML) offer an innovative approach to accurate fetal weight estimation by integrating multiple biometric and clinical variables. Objective To develop and validate ML models for estimating fetal weight using biometric data obtained via ultrasonography, evaluating their accuracy and comparing them with traditional formulas, such as Hadlock and Shepard. Methods A retrospective observational study was conducted at the National Maternal Perinatal Institute of Peru from 2009 to 2022, including 3525 low-risk pregnancies with singleton gestations. ML models, including Gradient Boosting, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest and TabPFN (Tabular Prior-data Fitted Network), were trained and validated using ultrasonographic measurements such as biparietal diameter, abdominal circumference, head circumference, femur length, and gestational age. Accuracy was assessed using the coefficient of determination ( R ²) and mean squared error (MSE), comparing the ML models to the Hadlock and Shepard formulas. Results Data from the first study stage (2009–2018) indicated that the TabPFN model was the most accurate ( R ² = 0.856; MSE = 0.146), outperforming the Hadlock ( R ² = 0.807; MSE = 0.195) and Shepard ( R ² = 0.801; MSE = 0.201) formulas. In the independent validation sample (2019–2022), TabPFN consistently outperformed other methods ( R ² = 0.873; MSE = 0.144). Model consistency was evaluated through cross-validation and randomization of samples. Conclusions The TabPFN model outperformed traditional formulas, including Hadlock and Shepard, and other evaluated machine learning methods in estimating fetal weight. Its high predictive accuracy, robustness across temporally distinct cohorts, and independence from hyperparameter tuning support its potential as a reliable clinical decision-support tool in obstetric care.https://doi.org/10.1177/20552076251342012 |
| spellingShingle | Marcos Espinola-Sánchez Antonio Limay-Rios Andrés Campaña-Acuña Silvia Sanca-Valeriano Machine learning models for estimating fetal weight based on ultrasonographic biometry: Development and validation study Digital Health |
| title | Machine learning models for estimating fetal weight based on ultrasonographic biometry: Development and validation study |
| title_full | Machine learning models for estimating fetal weight based on ultrasonographic biometry: Development and validation study |
| title_fullStr | Machine learning models for estimating fetal weight based on ultrasonographic biometry: Development and validation study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Machine learning models for estimating fetal weight based on ultrasonographic biometry: Development and validation study |
| title_short | Machine learning models for estimating fetal weight based on ultrasonographic biometry: Development and validation study |
| title_sort | machine learning models for estimating fetal weight based on ultrasonographic biometry development and validation study |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1177/20552076251342012 |
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