Minimal Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the Last 20 Years, Consistent With Internal Climate Variability
Abstract Over the past two decades, Arctic sea ice loss has slowed considerably, with no statistically significant decline in September sea ice area since 2005. This pause is robust across observational data sets, metrics, and seasons. Large‐ensemble CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations reveal that such peri...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-08-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL116175 |
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| author | M. R. England L. M. Polvani J. Screen A. C. Chan |
| author_facet | M. R. England L. M. Polvani J. Screen A. C. Chan |
| author_sort | M. R. England |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Over the past two decades, Arctic sea ice loss has slowed considerably, with no statistically significant decline in September sea ice area since 2005. This pause is robust across observational data sets, metrics, and seasons. Large‐ensemble CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations reveal that such periods with minimal sea ice decline under increasing greenhouse gas emissions are not unusual. Analysis of ensemble members that simulate analogs of the observed pause indicates that the current slowdown could plausibly persist another five to 10 years, although the chances of a faster‐than‐average decline are increased in the near‐future. The modeling evidence suggests that internal variability has substantially offset anthropogenically forced sea ice loss in recent decades. Overall, this observed pause in Arctic sea ice decline is consistent with simulated internal variability superimposed on the long‐term trend according to the bulk of the climate modeling evidence. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-64a5963fba874a0cb7b0e14217fa4e56 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-64a5963fba874a0cb7b0e14217fa4e562025-08-20T04:02:27ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072025-08-015215n/an/a10.1029/2025GL116175Minimal Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the Last 20 Years, Consistent With Internal Climate VariabilityM. R. England0L. M. Polvani1J. Screen2A. C. Chan3Department of Mathematics and Statistics University of Exeter Exeter UKLamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University New York NY USADepartment of Mathematics and Statistics University of Exeter Exeter UKDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics University of Exeter Exeter UKAbstract Over the past two decades, Arctic sea ice loss has slowed considerably, with no statistically significant decline in September sea ice area since 2005. This pause is robust across observational data sets, metrics, and seasons. Large‐ensemble CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations reveal that such periods with minimal sea ice decline under increasing greenhouse gas emissions are not unusual. Analysis of ensemble members that simulate analogs of the observed pause indicates that the current slowdown could plausibly persist another five to 10 years, although the chances of a faster‐than‐average decline are increased in the near‐future. The modeling evidence suggests that internal variability has substantially offset anthropogenically forced sea ice loss in recent decades. Overall, this observed pause in Arctic sea ice decline is consistent with simulated internal variability superimposed on the long‐term trend according to the bulk of the climate modeling evidence.https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL116175Arctic sea iceclimate modelssea ice lossinternal climate variabilitysea ice observations |
| spellingShingle | M. R. England L. M. Polvani J. Screen A. C. Chan Minimal Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the Last 20 Years, Consistent With Internal Climate Variability Geophysical Research Letters Arctic sea ice climate models sea ice loss internal climate variability sea ice observations |
| title | Minimal Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the Last 20 Years, Consistent With Internal Climate Variability |
| title_full | Minimal Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the Last 20 Years, Consistent With Internal Climate Variability |
| title_fullStr | Minimal Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the Last 20 Years, Consistent With Internal Climate Variability |
| title_full_unstemmed | Minimal Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the Last 20 Years, Consistent With Internal Climate Variability |
| title_short | Minimal Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the Last 20 Years, Consistent With Internal Climate Variability |
| title_sort | minimal arctic sea ice loss in the last 20 years consistent with internal climate variability |
| topic | Arctic sea ice climate models sea ice loss internal climate variability sea ice observations |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL116175 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT mrengland minimalarcticseaicelossinthelast20yearsconsistentwithinternalclimatevariability AT lmpolvani minimalarcticseaicelossinthelast20yearsconsistentwithinternalclimatevariability AT jscreen minimalarcticseaicelossinthelast20yearsconsistentwithinternalclimatevariability AT acchan minimalarcticseaicelossinthelast20yearsconsistentwithinternalclimatevariability |