Air pollution’s numerical, spatial, and temporal heterogeneous impacts on childhood hand, foot and mouth disease: a multi-model county-level study from China
Abstract Background While stationary links between childhood hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) and air pollution are known, a comprehensive study on their heterogeneous relationships (nonstationarity), jointly considering numerical, temporal and spatial dimensions, has not been reported. Methods M...
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2024-10-01
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-024-20342-x |
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| author | Zhangying Tang Qi Sun Jay Pan Mingyu Xie Zhoufeng Wang Xiaojun Lin Xiuli Wang Yumeng Zhang Qingping Xue Yanchen Bo Jinfeng Wang Xin Liu Chao Song |
| author_facet | Zhangying Tang Qi Sun Jay Pan Mingyu Xie Zhoufeng Wang Xiaojun Lin Xiuli Wang Yumeng Zhang Qingping Xue Yanchen Bo Jinfeng Wang Xin Liu Chao Song |
| author_sort | Zhangying Tang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background While stationary links between childhood hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) and air pollution are known, a comprehensive study on their heterogeneous relationships (nonstationarity), jointly considering numerical, temporal and spatial dimensions, has not been reported. Methods Monthly HFMD incidence and air pollution data were collected at the county level from Sichuan-Chongqing, China (2009–2011), alongside meteorological and social environmental covariates. Key influential factors were identified using random forest (RF) under the stationary assumption. Factors’ numerically, temporally, and spatially heterogeneous relationships with HFMD were assessed using generalized additive model (GAM) and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR). Results Our findings highlighted the relatively higher stationary contributions of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) to HFMD incidence across Sichuan-Chongqing counties. We further uncovered heterogeneous impacts of PM2.5 and O3 from three nonstationary perspectives. Numerically, PM2.5 showed an inverse ‘V’-shaped relationship with HFMD incidence, while O3 exhibited a complex pattern, with increased HFMD incidence at low PM2.5 and moderate O3 concentrations. Temporally, PM2.5’s impact peaked in autumn and was weakest in spring, whereas O3’s effect was strongest in summer. Spatially, hotspot mapping revealed high-risk clusters for PM2.5 impact across all seasons, with notable geographical variations, and for O3 in spring, summer, and autumn, concentrated in specific regions of Sichuan-Chongqing. Conclusions This study underscores the nuanced and three-perspective heterogeneous influences of air pollution on HFMD in small areas, emphasizing the need for differentiated, localized, and time-sensitive prevention and control strategies to enhance the precision of dynamic early warnings and predictive models for HFMD and other infectious diseases, particularly in the fields of environmental and spatial epidemiology. |
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| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1471-2458 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-10-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
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| series | BMC Public Health |
| spelling | doaj-art-6496c17316e24cb3bea11a60d9bf68dc2025-08-20T02:17:52ZengBMCBMC Public Health1471-24582024-10-0124111210.1186/s12889-024-20342-xAir pollution’s numerical, spatial, and temporal heterogeneous impacts on childhood hand, foot and mouth disease: a multi-model county-level study from ChinaZhangying Tang0Qi Sun1Jay Pan2Mingyu Xie3Zhoufeng Wang4Xiaojun Lin5Xiuli Wang6Yumeng Zhang7Qingping Xue8Yanchen Bo9Jinfeng Wang10Xin Liu11Chao Song12State Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Reservoir Geology and Exploitation, School of Geoscience and Technology, Southwest Petroleum UniversityState Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Reservoir Geology and Exploitation, School of Geoscience and Technology, Southwest Petroleum UniversityWest China Health & Medical Geography Group within HEOA Think Tank, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan UniversitySchool of Public Health, Xi’an Jiaotong UniversityState Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Reservoir Geology and Exploitation, School of Geoscience and Technology, Southwest Petroleum UniversityWest China Health & Medical Geography Group within HEOA Think Tank, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan UniversityWest China Health & Medical Geography Group within HEOA Think Tank, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan UniversityWest China Health & Medical Geography Group within HEOA Think Tank, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan UniversityDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Chengdu Medical CollegeState Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal UniversityState Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System (LREIS), Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of SciencesState Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Reservoir Geology and Exploitation, School of Geoscience and Technology, Southwest Petroleum UniversityWest China Health & Medical Geography Group within HEOA Think Tank, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan UniversityAbstract Background While stationary links between childhood hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) and air pollution are known, a comprehensive study on their heterogeneous relationships (nonstationarity), jointly considering numerical, temporal and spatial dimensions, has not been reported. Methods Monthly HFMD incidence and air pollution data were collected at the county level from Sichuan-Chongqing, China (2009–2011), alongside meteorological and social environmental covariates. Key influential factors were identified using random forest (RF) under the stationary assumption. Factors’ numerically, temporally, and spatially heterogeneous relationships with HFMD were assessed using generalized additive model (GAM) and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR). Results Our findings highlighted the relatively higher stationary contributions of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) to HFMD incidence across Sichuan-Chongqing counties. We further uncovered heterogeneous impacts of PM2.5 and O3 from three nonstationary perspectives. Numerically, PM2.5 showed an inverse ‘V’-shaped relationship with HFMD incidence, while O3 exhibited a complex pattern, with increased HFMD incidence at low PM2.5 and moderate O3 concentrations. Temporally, PM2.5’s impact peaked in autumn and was weakest in spring, whereas O3’s effect was strongest in summer. Spatially, hotspot mapping revealed high-risk clusters for PM2.5 impact across all seasons, with notable geographical variations, and for O3 in spring, summer, and autumn, concentrated in specific regions of Sichuan-Chongqing. Conclusions This study underscores the nuanced and three-perspective heterogeneous influences of air pollution on HFMD in small areas, emphasizing the need for differentiated, localized, and time-sensitive prevention and control strategies to enhance the precision of dynamic early warnings and predictive models for HFMD and other infectious diseases, particularly in the fields of environmental and spatial epidemiology.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-024-20342-xHFMDHeterogeneous impactsSpatiotemporal nonstationarityNumerical nonlinearitySmall areaChina |
| spellingShingle | Zhangying Tang Qi Sun Jay Pan Mingyu Xie Zhoufeng Wang Xiaojun Lin Xiuli Wang Yumeng Zhang Qingping Xue Yanchen Bo Jinfeng Wang Xin Liu Chao Song Air pollution’s numerical, spatial, and temporal heterogeneous impacts on childhood hand, foot and mouth disease: a multi-model county-level study from China BMC Public Health HFMD Heterogeneous impacts Spatiotemporal nonstationarity Numerical nonlinearity Small area China |
| title | Air pollution’s numerical, spatial, and temporal heterogeneous impacts on childhood hand, foot and mouth disease: a multi-model county-level study from China |
| title_full | Air pollution’s numerical, spatial, and temporal heterogeneous impacts on childhood hand, foot and mouth disease: a multi-model county-level study from China |
| title_fullStr | Air pollution’s numerical, spatial, and temporal heterogeneous impacts on childhood hand, foot and mouth disease: a multi-model county-level study from China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Air pollution’s numerical, spatial, and temporal heterogeneous impacts on childhood hand, foot and mouth disease: a multi-model county-level study from China |
| title_short | Air pollution’s numerical, spatial, and temporal heterogeneous impacts on childhood hand, foot and mouth disease: a multi-model county-level study from China |
| title_sort | air pollution s numerical spatial and temporal heterogeneous impacts on childhood hand foot and mouth disease a multi model county level study from china |
| topic | HFMD Heterogeneous impacts Spatiotemporal nonstationarity Numerical nonlinearity Small area China |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-024-20342-x |
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