Revised estimates of temperature changes under net zero CO2 emissions
Abstract It is critical that climate changes beyond net zero are well understood to inform policymaking. Here we present a new estimate of post-abrupt net zero CO2 temperature changes using a method that filters for variability on multiple timescales. Our findings indicate that 50 years after abrupt...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-07-01
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| Series: | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01148-z |
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| author | Alex Borowiak Andrew D. King Josephine R. Brown Tilo Ziehn |
| author_facet | Alex Borowiak Andrew D. King Josephine R. Brown Tilo Ziehn |
| author_sort | Alex Borowiak |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract It is critical that climate changes beyond net zero are well understood to inform policymaking. Here we present a new estimate of post-abrupt net zero CO2 temperature changes using a method that filters for variability on multiple timescales. Our findings indicate that 50 years after abrupt emission cessation, the multi-model median temperature change is −0.19 °C, with a range spanning from −0.44 °C to 0.04 °C, which is cooler than previous estimates. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-64319123bc014ea0a5119e0484d342f1 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2397-3722 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| spelling | doaj-art-64319123bc014ea0a5119e0484d342f12025-08-20T03:42:30ZengNature Portfolionpj Climate and Atmospheric Science2397-37222025-07-01811510.1038/s41612-025-01148-zRevised estimates of temperature changes under net zero CO2 emissionsAlex Borowiak0Andrew D. King1Josephine R. Brown2Tilo Ziehn3School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of MelbourneSchool of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of MelbourneSchool of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of MelbourneCSIRO EnvironmentAbstract It is critical that climate changes beyond net zero are well understood to inform policymaking. Here we present a new estimate of post-abrupt net zero CO2 temperature changes using a method that filters for variability on multiple timescales. Our findings indicate that 50 years after abrupt emission cessation, the multi-model median temperature change is −0.19 °C, with a range spanning from −0.44 °C to 0.04 °C, which is cooler than previous estimates.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01148-z |
| spellingShingle | Alex Borowiak Andrew D. King Josephine R. Brown Tilo Ziehn Revised estimates of temperature changes under net zero CO2 emissions npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| title | Revised estimates of temperature changes under net zero CO2 emissions |
| title_full | Revised estimates of temperature changes under net zero CO2 emissions |
| title_fullStr | Revised estimates of temperature changes under net zero CO2 emissions |
| title_full_unstemmed | Revised estimates of temperature changes under net zero CO2 emissions |
| title_short | Revised estimates of temperature changes under net zero CO2 emissions |
| title_sort | revised estimates of temperature changes under net zero co2 emissions |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01148-z |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT alexborowiak revisedestimatesoftemperaturechangesundernetzeroco2emissions AT andrewdking revisedestimatesoftemperaturechangesundernetzeroco2emissions AT josephinerbrown revisedestimatesoftemperaturechangesundernetzeroco2emissions AT tiloziehn revisedestimatesoftemperaturechangesundernetzeroco2emissions |