Revised estimates of temperature changes under net zero CO2 emissions

Abstract It is critical that climate changes beyond net zero are well understood to inform policymaking. Here we present a new estimate of post-abrupt net zero CO2 temperature changes using a method that filters for variability on multiple timescales. Our findings indicate that 50 years after abrupt...

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Main Authors: Alex Borowiak, Andrew D. King, Josephine R. Brown, Tilo Ziehn
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-07-01
Series:npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01148-z
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author Alex Borowiak
Andrew D. King
Josephine R. Brown
Tilo Ziehn
author_facet Alex Borowiak
Andrew D. King
Josephine R. Brown
Tilo Ziehn
author_sort Alex Borowiak
collection DOAJ
description Abstract It is critical that climate changes beyond net zero are well understood to inform policymaking. Here we present a new estimate of post-abrupt net zero CO2 temperature changes using a method that filters for variability on multiple timescales. Our findings indicate that 50 years after abrupt emission cessation, the multi-model median temperature change is −0.19 °C, with a range spanning from −0.44 °C to 0.04 °C, which is cooler than previous estimates.
format Article
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institution Kabale University
issn 2397-3722
language English
publishDate 2025-07-01
publisher Nature Portfolio
record_format Article
series npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
spelling doaj-art-64319123bc014ea0a5119e0484d342f12025-08-20T03:42:30ZengNature Portfolionpj Climate and Atmospheric Science2397-37222025-07-01811510.1038/s41612-025-01148-zRevised estimates of temperature changes under net zero CO2 emissionsAlex Borowiak0Andrew D. King1Josephine R. Brown2Tilo Ziehn3School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of MelbourneSchool of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of MelbourneSchool of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of MelbourneCSIRO EnvironmentAbstract It is critical that climate changes beyond net zero are well understood to inform policymaking. Here we present a new estimate of post-abrupt net zero CO2 temperature changes using a method that filters for variability on multiple timescales. Our findings indicate that 50 years after abrupt emission cessation, the multi-model median temperature change is −0.19 °C, with a range spanning from −0.44 °C to 0.04 °C, which is cooler than previous estimates.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01148-z
spellingShingle Alex Borowiak
Andrew D. King
Josephine R. Brown
Tilo Ziehn
Revised estimates of temperature changes under net zero CO2 emissions
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
title Revised estimates of temperature changes under net zero CO2 emissions
title_full Revised estimates of temperature changes under net zero CO2 emissions
title_fullStr Revised estimates of temperature changes under net zero CO2 emissions
title_full_unstemmed Revised estimates of temperature changes under net zero CO2 emissions
title_short Revised estimates of temperature changes under net zero CO2 emissions
title_sort revised estimates of temperature changes under net zero co2 emissions
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01148-z
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AT tiloziehn revisedestimatesoftemperaturechangesundernetzeroco2emissions