Development of a multivariable prognostic prediction model for skin tears in older nursing home residents
Abstract Skin tears are traumatic wounds and are among the most prevalent skin conditions in older adults, particularly those in long-term care facilities. These injuries can lead to complications such as infection, pain, reduced quality of life, and increased healthcare costs. This study aimed to i...
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Nature Portfolio
2025-04-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-95944-5 |
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| author | Monira El Genedy-Kalyoncu Bettina Völzer Jan Kottner |
| author_facet | Monira El Genedy-Kalyoncu Bettina Völzer Jan Kottner |
| author_sort | Monira El Genedy-Kalyoncu |
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| description | Abstract Skin tears are traumatic wounds and are among the most prevalent skin conditions in older adults, particularly those in long-term care facilities. These injuries can lead to complications such as infection, pain, reduced quality of life, and increased healthcare costs. This study aimed to identify risk factors for skin tear development in nursing home residents aged 65 years or older and to develop a predictive prognostic model. A secondary data analysis was performed on long-term care nursing home residents ≥ 65 years who participated in a cluster-randomized controlled clinical trial conducted in Berlin, Germany, from April 2019 to June 2021. A total of 101 residents were included. At week 12, 19 residents (18.8%) developed at least one skin tear. The best-fit predictive model identified lower Body Mass Index, lower Barthel Index scores, presence of xerosis cutis on the legs, and regular corticosteroid use as significant risk factors for skin tear development. The model demonstrated good discriminatory ability (area under the curve: 0.823), with sensitivity and specificity rates of 73.7% and 74.4%, respectively. These risk factors could help identify at-risk individuals, enabling targeted preventive measures. However, the model requires validation in a prospective cohort to confirm its applicability in clinical practice. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-63a2d80abb7e47a3b4ba991ff3869113 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-04-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
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| spelling | doaj-art-63a2d80abb7e47a3b4ba991ff38691132025-08-20T02:25:37ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-04-0115111310.1038/s41598-025-95944-5Development of a multivariable prognostic prediction model for skin tears in older nursing home residentsMonira El Genedy-Kalyoncu0Bettina Völzer1Jan Kottner2Charité – Universitätsmedizin Berlin, corporate member of Freie Universität Berlin and Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Institute of Clinical Nursing ScienceCharité – Universitätsmedizin Berlin, corporate member of Freie Universität Berlin and Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Institute of Clinical Nursing ScienceCharité – Universitätsmedizin Berlin, corporate member of Freie Universität Berlin and Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Institute of Clinical Nursing ScienceAbstract Skin tears are traumatic wounds and are among the most prevalent skin conditions in older adults, particularly those in long-term care facilities. These injuries can lead to complications such as infection, pain, reduced quality of life, and increased healthcare costs. This study aimed to identify risk factors for skin tear development in nursing home residents aged 65 years or older and to develop a predictive prognostic model. A secondary data analysis was performed on long-term care nursing home residents ≥ 65 years who participated in a cluster-randomized controlled clinical trial conducted in Berlin, Germany, from April 2019 to June 2021. A total of 101 residents were included. At week 12, 19 residents (18.8%) developed at least one skin tear. The best-fit predictive model identified lower Body Mass Index, lower Barthel Index scores, presence of xerosis cutis on the legs, and regular corticosteroid use as significant risk factors for skin tear development. The model demonstrated good discriminatory ability (area under the curve: 0.823), with sensitivity and specificity rates of 73.7% and 74.4%, respectively. These risk factors could help identify at-risk individuals, enabling targeted preventive measures. However, the model requires validation in a prospective cohort to confirm its applicability in clinical practice.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-95944-5Skin tearsPrediction modelsRisk factorsLong-term carePrevention |
| spellingShingle | Monira El Genedy-Kalyoncu Bettina Völzer Jan Kottner Development of a multivariable prognostic prediction model for skin tears in older nursing home residents Scientific Reports Skin tears Prediction models Risk factors Long-term care Prevention |
| title | Development of a multivariable prognostic prediction model for skin tears in older nursing home residents |
| title_full | Development of a multivariable prognostic prediction model for skin tears in older nursing home residents |
| title_fullStr | Development of a multivariable prognostic prediction model for skin tears in older nursing home residents |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development of a multivariable prognostic prediction model for skin tears in older nursing home residents |
| title_short | Development of a multivariable prognostic prediction model for skin tears in older nursing home residents |
| title_sort | development of a multivariable prognostic prediction model for skin tears in older nursing home residents |
| topic | Skin tears Prediction models Risk factors Long-term care Prevention |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-95944-5 |
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